Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Juneau, AK

284 
FZAK52 PAJK 061302
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-070715-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A deep low over the western Gulf persists and allows winds to 
keep seas elevated over the eastern Gulf region through Wednesday.
A gale force low will move into the central Gulf from the south 
on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-070715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 23 ft. 
Showers late. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 24 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-070715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 22 ft. 
Showers late. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 24 
ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-070715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 22 ft. Rain
showers late. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-070715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 21 ft. 
Rain showers late.
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt in the evening diminishing to 20 
kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 25 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-070715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
402 AM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt in the morning becoming S 30 kt. Seas 20 
ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 25 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
621 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...A deep low churning in the Gulf is pushing strong
southerly winds into the region today. Many areas, mainly along
the coastal waters and into the interior of the southern
panhandle are already seeing strong winds out of this system and
are on track to receive even higher wind gusts on the order of
about 60 mph over the course of the day. Expected strong wind
should continue to push north with the low today, eventually
making it as far north as Haines and Yakutat by this evening. This
wind will also prove a challenge for mariners as storm force
winds can be expected up the southern coastline. Gales in the open
Gulf, further north up the coastline and into ocean entrances.
Otherwise, small craft advisories aplenty for the rest of the
inner channels.

Precip regarding this system has been the forecast challenge of
the day as the elusive rain/snow line has likely set up slightly
further north than previously forecast. Greatest precip is still
anticipated for the southern panhandle today with rainfall totals
exceeding an inch appearing the norm. Total precip decreases as
you go north as the flow gets disrupted by the terrain. Most
locations see mainly rain today with some snow mixing in for some
inland locations such as the Mendenhall Valley. Later this
evening, most areas of the Icy Strait corridor and further north
should see a transition over to snow as the temperature drops.
At higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways, temps
remain cold enough that snow will be the precip type through the
duration of the event. Snow totals overnight in Juneau of 1-3
inches look fair with slightly higher amounts north and obviously
the greatest amounts occurring at higher elevations.

Continued southerly flow into the region should keep up some
decent precip chances going into Wednesday. Another low spinning
up in the Gulf will maintain a strong pressure gradient which
should keep things breezy through the duration of the forecast
period.

.LONG TERM...A consensus trough of low pressure over the Gulf
of Alaska such as in the pattern we have endured favors wet and
breezy weather for Southeast, with precipitation falling as rain
near sea level and snow up Upper Lynn Canal--at least along the
highways and Hyder. While rain is a near certainty at times, snow
is not out of the question as between systems, some colder air
could offer the chance for accumulating snow to fall at times
overnight in Juneau and much of the rest of the northern
Panhandle. But by no means do not expect a winter wonderland.
Aside from Upper Lynn Canal, snowfall will generally be a
temporary feature across Southeast landscapes.

Ensembles and operational models first indicate a low pulling NW
from the North Pacific into the western gulf on Thursday. A gale
force front extended into the eastern gulf should produce
widespread precipitation across the region Thursday. Snow could
present issues along the highways.

Confidence begins to fall on Friday as a new system begins to
emerge from the south. The ECMWF brings the system sufficiently
farther to the west faster and maybe suggests a bit of a break in
the precipitation for Friday. While the GFS is much slower with
the phasing, and keeps things wet.

This weekend another storm--possible storm force--pulls north into
the gulf with wind and rain for the southern Panhandle and the
coast, and snow and wind for portions of the north as well as
Hyder. Currently impacts from this storm look most likely late
Saturday into Sunday.

All in all, the uncertainty in this pattern exists in timing and
track of these systems, rather than whether these strong systems
exist or whether they will affect Southeast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ023-027-
     028.
     Strong Wind until 8 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ020.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind this evening for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031>036-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-053.

&&

JDR/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1108 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 AM     SNOW             SSE MUD BAY             59.15N 135.35W
01/05/2021  M10.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
            MORNING. ESTIMATED DURATION 6 TO 8 HOURS

&&

CC