Gale Warning 65, NWS Juneau, AK

152 
FZAK51 PAJK 031305
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-040330-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the central gulf tracks E into the NE Gulf
this afternoon, moves ashore around Sitka tonight, and into
northern BC by Thu night. An associated weather front swings
into the SE gulf this afternoon and into the southern Panhandle 
tonight. High pressure over the Canadian Yukon persists through 
Thu night. 

$$

PKZ011-040330-
Glacier Bay-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-040330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt late. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-040330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-040330-
Icy Strait-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-040330-
Cross Sound-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-040330-
Stephens Passage-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray early. Snow. Rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft. Rain and
snow in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-040330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain and
snow in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-040330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 6 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas
7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-040330-
Frederick Sound-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow. Rain in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-040330-
Sumner Strait-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow early, 
then rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Gusts to 35 kt in the
evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-040330-
Clarence Strait-
405 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday evening through Thursday/ The dry weather
on Tuesday won't last long as the next winter storm moves in by
Wednesday morning. Guidance has been in great agreement over the
past few days showing a weak area of low pressure and associated
front moving east through the gulf and into the Central
Panhandle. With a cold air mass already in place across much of
the region, expect precip to start as snow for most areas early
Wednesday morning. Weak southerly flow ahead of the system will
slowly erode the arctic airmass at the surface allowing
temperatures to gradually rise through the day across the Central
and Southern Panhandle. 1000-850mb thickness rise above 1290m from
E to W during the afternoon hours from around Sitka to Angoon
southward, indicating a complete changeover to rain in the
southern half of the Panhandle at sea level. With the low tracking
right into Sitka, a persistent northerly gradient across the
northern half of the area will keep the arctic airmass locked in
place. Model soundings continue to show a very stable temperature
profile, so not expecting "warmer" air from southerly flow aloft
to mix down to the surface. This is a classic set up for heavy
snow across portions of the northern Panhandle, including Juneau.
Due to strong northerly outflow in Upper Lynn Canal, think that
dry air will significantly limit snow amounts in Haines and
Skagway, so have not included them in an winter weather
statements. The axis of heaviest snow is expected to fall along
the Coast Mountains from Juneau to Petersburg to Hyder. Juneau
will stay fully within the cold air through the event so expecting
highest snowfall amounts in that area. Petersburg and Wrangell
will change to rain by the afternoon, however heavy snow is
possible for these areas during the morning. Currently expecting
Hyder to remain mainly snow; however confidence is low regarding
the potential for a changeover to rain. Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued for the Icy Strait corridor and
Petersburg/Wrangell for 3 to 6 inches of snow from early Wednesday
morning through Wednesday afternoon. The Winter Storm Watch has
been upgraded to a Warning for Juneau for 4 to 8 inches of snow
through late Wednesday evening. Model soundings for this event
show a pretty stable atmosphere through the column, so any heavy
snowfall rates will be due to upslope rather than storm dynamics.

As the system weakens and departs the region on Thursday,
soundings indicate low level moisture will remain in place across
much of the Panhandle. A weak northern stream upper level system
passes by during this time which may help produce flurries and
snow showers. Put flurries and a slight chance for snow showers
along the Coast Mountains and through Icy Strait corridor through
Thursday evening. There is a chance for freezing drizzle as well
as the DGZ will not be saturated and the moisture remains around
the boundary layer. Although air may be cold enough for some
snowflake development. Little to no accumulations from this weak
system.

Little to no wind issues to mention in the short term. Strong
outflow winds Tuesday evening will gradually diminish Wednesday
morning. The system approaching tomorrow is very weak as the front
pushing in has winds around small craft levels for the Outer
Coast and the Southern Inner Channels.

Overall confident is high over the next 48 hours as guidance is in
good agreement with the track of this next storm and snowfall
amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...This extended
range forecast begins with another low off the outer coast and a
front still impacting most of the Panhandle. The low will have
begun weakening already, so winds will not be overly impactful. A
northerly pressure gradient will produce high end small craft
winds over Lynn Canal through Thursday night, however.
Precipitation, in the form of rain south of Berners Bay by
Thursday afternoon, will diminish and provide only a brief break
before the next front arrives from the west Friday or Friday
night. By Saturday morning, all of Southeast Alaska will be under
the precipitation shield from this front. Additionally, based on
the orientation and trajectory of this front, a warmer low level
airmass will move in behind the front. At this time, confidence
is increasing that the rain/snow line will push at least as far
north as the Icy Strait Corridor by Saturday afternoon. North of
there, this could be another fairly heavy snow event. As the cold
front pushes through on Sunday, the rain/snow line will once again
shift south, eventually reach down to the Dixon Entrance.
Therefore, rain showers will transition back to snow showers from
north to south through the second half of the weekend and heading
into the next work week. -Fritsch

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ026.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST
     Wednesday night for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ020>022.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-031.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>034-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

CM/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1134 AM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY SNOW       4 WSW JUNEAU            58.28N 134.51W
02/02/2021  M5.2 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            5.2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS MEASURED FOR THE
            STORM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1136 AM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       26 ESE DOUGLAS          58.14N 133.74W
02/02/2021  M6.4 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6.4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS MEASURED FOR THE
            STORM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1143 AM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU INTERNATIONAL AI 58.36N 134.59W
02/01/2021  M5.9 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            5.9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS REPORTED FOR THE
            STORM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1239 PM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HEAVY SNOW       14 N ROWAN BAY          56.85N 134.32W
02/01/2021  M10.0 INCH       PETERSBURG CENSUS AAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER MEASURED 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            FROM 6AM TO 9:20PM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1259 PM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             11 ENE DOUGLAS          58.32N 134.10W
02/02/2021  M4.6 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4.6 INCHES OF TOTAL NEW SNOW WAS MEASURED
            FOR THE STORM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
158 PM AKST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PORT ALEXANDER          56.25N 134.65W
02/02/2021  M12.0 INCH       SITKA              AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE SPOTTER REPORTED MEASURING 12 INCHES OF
            TOTAL NEW SNOW FROM THE STORM.

&&

JLC