Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Juneau, AK

960 
WWAK47 PAJK 040221
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
521 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

AKZ025-040900-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210204T0900Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
521 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and heavy snow continuing. Minor ice
  accumulations possible, with additional snow accumulation of 
  around 2 inches. Total snow accumulations of around 8 inches.

* WHERE...Juneau.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates will decrease through the 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

AKZ020>022-026-040600-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210204T0600Z/
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, 
Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
521 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow continuing. Additional accumulation of 2 inches. 
  Total snow accumulations of around 6 inches.

* WHERE...Petersburg.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery conditions and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of 2 PM, an estimated 4 inches of snow 
  had fallen in Petersburg. Temperatures have warmed above 
  freezing in Kake and Wrangell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ018-040900-
/O.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0003.210204T0800Z-210204T1700Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
521 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway near White Pass.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM AKST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

453 
WWAK47 PAJK 040558
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
858 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021


AKZ020>022-026-040700-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210204T0600Z/
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, 
Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
858 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

The bulk of the precipitation has ended, with only showers 
expected through the rest of the evening. Therefore the winter 
weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 9. 

$$

AKZ025-040900-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210204T0900Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
858 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and heavy snow will continue. Minor ice
  accumulations possible. 

* WHERE...Juneau.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates will decrease through the 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

AKZ018-041400-
/O.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0003.210204T0800Z-210204T1700Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
858 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway near White Pass.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM AKST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

541 
WWAK47 PAJK 040853
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1153 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

AKZ025-041000-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210204T0900Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
1153 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

Heavy snow and freezing rain has ended across the area. However,
some brief periods of freezing drizzle are possible into early
Thursday morning, but accumulations will likely be minor.  

$$

AKZ018-041700-
/O.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210204T1700Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
1153 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway near White Pass.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM AKST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

911 
WWAK47 PAJK 041412
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
512 AM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021


AKZ018-041515-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210204T1700Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
512 AM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have warmed above zero, therefore, wind chills have
risen into the teens below zero.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
642 AM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...Snow started soon after midnight across much of the
northern Panhandle from Sitka north, and falling visibility and
accumulations began almost immediately. Known amounts thus far
have ranged from a solid inch at Petersburg, 2.3 inches at the
Juneau Airport, around 3 inches in Juneau's Mendenhall Valley, and
2 inches in The Flats neighborhood of Downtown Juneau. A late
look at NAM dendritic growth zone projections and the best dynamic
lift imply that the greatest accumulations look to fall this
morning. Warming aloft should mean lower snow ratios leading into
the afternoon and evening. Observations from data coming in
overnight suggest that Petersburg may be one to watch for a later
rain transition than currently forecast, which may lead to higher
amounts. But model freezing levels are difficult to ignore, and so
evidence was not sufficiently strong to extend the advisory, or
even upgrade it to a warning.

If one could design an efficient snow producer, one could hardly
envision a storm much better than this one. The track across the
northern gulf and its moderate depth in pressure keep northerly
flow across the northern and central Inner Channels today while
not inducing such strong outflow to essentially dry out the
precipitation meteors as they fall through the atmosphere.
Likewise, with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the system,
efficient overrunning processes are hard at work ensuring maximum
snow fluff. With little wind, snowfall accumulations will also
fall across the northern Inner Channels where we will be vigilant
in tracking spotter amounts in Mud Bay near Haines.

Farther south, a front extending southeast from the low will wrap
more southerly flow and higher freezing levels for the south-
central areas. Thus, we expect a rain transition from Sitka over
to Kake, and Wrangell, and yes, eventually Petersburg. Ketchikan
and Prince of Wales will see the transition by noon today. We may
have delayed that rain transition for Petersburg until the
evening, while still allowing temperatures to rise above freezing
by late afternoon. Thus, the advisory ending at 3 PM, still holds.

Winds should be a non-factor, as the low is not even gale force.
Small craft southerlies will rise in Clarence Strait this
afternoon and evening. And small craft northerlies will also
develop in Lynn Canal tonight as the low nears the coast.

The low in a weakened state enters the south-central Panhandle
tonight and takes the snow southeast with it along the Coast
Mountains. Hyder will wring out around 7 inches out of this
storm. As the previous shift observed, drying at mid- levels with
a low deck may allow for some flurries for the north late tonight
and Thursday, but accumulations will be basically done.

Temperatures begin falling again on Thursday post-storm as cold
air advection commences yet again through Upper Lynn Canal. It is
possible that dangerous wind chills reappear at White Pass
Thursday night. Freezing spray likely also makes a reappearance
in Lynn Canal. Fog could be a concern in Yakutat tonight after the
storm, and possibly portions of the northern Panhandle, but
slightly more unstable air might keep the moist layer more
elevated, thus lower clouds could be more likely to develop than
fog.

Overall little change was needed in the forecast. Forecast
confidence is generally good.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday night/...This extended
range forecast begins with a quiet start. SE Alaska will remain
largely dry through much of Friday. A few of the operational
models are hinting at a weak shortwave bringing, at most, some
chances of snow to the central panhandle, but am not sold on this.
By Friday afternoon or evening, cloud cover will be returning
in full force to the panhandle as another system starts to move
in. By Saturday morning, much of Southeast Alaska will be under
the precipitation shield from this front. it is at this point that
guidance rapidly diverges, as operational runs disagree on which
part of the panhandle is favored for the bulk of QPF. Chose to
lean more on the ensembles which paint a broader precipitation
shield across the area. It appears increasingly likely that this
will be an accumulating snow event for much of northern half of
the panhandle, including Juneau, though how much is not yet
certain.

After this system passes, even the ensemble guidance steadily
weakens in confidence. Substantial differences in trajectory of
synoptic scale features become more and more evident. Some hinting
at another system arriving early next week does exist, but this
far out that remains a low confidence forecast. It does look like
the possibility of a warm-up across the area exists towards the
middle of next week, but once again, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ026.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for
     AKZ020>022.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

JWA/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
136 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.31N 134.42W
02/03/2021  E7.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE SPOTTER ESTIMATED 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            ON THE GROUND. IT WAS STILL SNOWING.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
140 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HEAVY SNOW       3 NW JUNEAU             58.34N 134.48W
02/03/2021  M5.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER MEASURED 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM
            THE STORM. IT WAS STILL SNOWING.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
142 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 S MENDENHALL VALLEY   58.37N 134.59W
02/03/2021  M5.5 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE SPOTTER MEASURED 5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            FROM THE STORM. IT WAS TILL SNOWING.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
143 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 WNW MENDENHALL VALLEY 58.38N 134.65W
02/03/2021  M4.4 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            A MEASUREMENT OF 4.4 INCHES WAS REPORTED. IT
            WAS TILL SNOWING.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
144 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 WNW MENDENHALL VALLEY 58.39N 134.65W
02/03/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER MEASURED 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM
            THE STORM. IT WAS TILL SNOWING.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
146 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 W MENDENHALL VALLEY   58.39N 134.77W
02/03/2021  M5.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER AT LENA POINT MEASURED 5 INCHES OF
            NEW SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM. IT WAS TILL
            SNOWING.

&&

JLC