Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Juneau, AK

675 
FZAK51 PAJK 040038
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-041700-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the eastern gulf tracks E across the central
panhandle Wed night. High pressure over the Canadian Yukon builds
into Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-041700-
Glacier Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-041700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers early in the
evening. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-041700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow early in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-041700-
Icy Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow early in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-041700-
Cross Sound-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 8 ft
subsiding. SW swell late. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-041700-
Stephens Passage-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the evening.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-041700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Snow early
in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-041700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-041700-
Frederick Sound-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft. Rain early 
in the evening. Snow in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-041700-
Sumner Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 35 kt in the 
evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow early in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-041700-
Clarence Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday evening through Thursday/ The dry weather
on Tuesday won't last long as the next winter storm moves in by
Wednesday morning. Guidance has been in great agreement over the
past few days showing a weak area of low pressure and associated
front moving east through the gulf and into the Central
Panhandle. With a cold air mass already in place across much of
the region, expect precip to start as snow for most areas early
Wednesday morning. Weak southerly flow ahead of the system will
slowly erode the arctic airmass at the surface allowing
temperatures to gradually rise through the day across the Central
and Southern Panhandle. 1000-850mb thickness rise above 1290m from
E to W during the afternoon hours from around Sitka to Angoon
southward, indicating a complete changeover to rain in the
southern half of the Panhandle at sea level. With the low tracking
right into Sitka, a persistent northerly gradient across the
northern half of the area will keep the arctic airmass locked in
place. Model soundings continue to show a very stable temperature
profile, so not expecting "warmer" air from southerly flow aloft
to mix down to the surface. This is a classic set up for heavy
snow across portions of the northern Panhandle, including Juneau.
Due to strong northerly outflow in Upper Lynn Canal, think that
dry air will significantly limit snow amounts in Haines and
Skagway, so have not included them in an winter weather
statements. The axis of heaviest snow is expected to fall along
the Coast Mountains from Juneau to Petersburg to Hyder. Juneau
will stay fully within the cold air through the event so expecting
highest snowfall amounts in that area. Petersburg and Wrangell
will change to rain by the afternoon, however heavy snow is
possible for these areas during the morning. Currently expecting
Hyder to remain mainly snow; however confidence is low regarding
the potential for a changeover to rain. Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued for the Icy Strait corridor and
Petersburg/Wrangell for 3 to 6 inches of snow from early Wednesday
morning through Wednesday afternoon. The Winter Storm Watch has
been upgraded to a Warning for Juneau for 4 to 8 inches of snow
through late Wednesday evening. Model soundings for this event
show a pretty stable atmosphere through the column, so any heavy
snowfall rates will be due to upslope rather than storm dynamics.

As the system weakens and departs the region on Thursday,
soundings indicate low level moisture will remain in place across
much of the Panhandle. A weak northern stream upper level system
passes by during this time which may help produce flurries and
snow showers. Put flurries and a slight chance for snow showers
along the Coast Mountains and through Icy Strait corridor through
Thursday evening. There is a chance for freezing drizzle as well
as the DGZ will not be saturated and the moisture remains around
the boundary layer. Although air may be cold enough for some
snowflake development. Little to no accumulations from this weak
system.

Little to no wind issues to mention in the short term. Strong
outflow winds Tuesday evening will gradually diminish Wednesday
morning. The system approaching tomorrow is very weak as the front
pushing in has winds around small craft levels for the Outer
Coast and the Southern Inner Channels.

Overall confident is high over the next 48 hours as guidance is in
good agreement with the track of this next storm and snowfall
amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...This extended
range forecast begins with another low off the outer coast and a
front still impacting most of the Panhandle. The low will have
begun weakening already, so winds will not be overly impactful. A
northerly pressure gradient will produce high end small craft
winds over Lynn Canal through Thursday night, however.
Precipitation, in the form of rain south of Berners Bay by
Thursday afternoon, will diminish and provide only a brief break
before the next front arrives from the west Friday or Friday
night. By Saturday morning, all of Southeast Alaska will be under
the precipitation shield from this front. Additionally, based on
the orientation and trajectory of this front, a warmer low level
airmass will move in behind the front. At this time, confidence
is increasing that the rain/snow line will push at least as far
north as the Icy Strait Corridor by Saturday afternoon. North of
there, this could be another fairly heavy snow event. As the cold
front pushes through on Sunday, the rain/snow line will once again
shift south, eventually reach down to the Dixon Entrance.
Therefore, rain showers will transition back to snow showers from
north to south through the second half of the weekend and heading
into the next work week. -Fritsch

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ026.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST
     Wednesday night for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ020>022.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-031.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>034-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

CM/Fritsch

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