Winter Weather Advisory 87, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Several cold fronts will track east across Northern Alaska
through Mon. The first front will move from its current location
in NW Alaska to the ALCAN Border by Sat night, and bring several
inches of snow to the Brooks Range, and 1 inch or less to the
Eastern Interior above 2000 feet. It will bring temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s along with winds of 10-15 mph on Sat.

The second cold front will move to NW Alaska Sat PM, to the
Western North Slope and Western Interior Sat night, to the
Central North Slope and Central and Western Interior on Sun, then
to the Eastern North Slope, Eastern Interior and Southwest Interior
Sun night and Mon. This will bring several inches of wet snow to
many areas Sun into Mon with temps in the 20s and 30s Sun night
and Mon. Areas can expect 2-4 inches of snow over the North Slope
and areas above 1000 ft of the Interior.

Aloft...
A long wave trough over Alaska Will persist into next week.
Several short wave trough will move from Russia east across
Northern Alaska pushing cold fronts and their associated weather
east with them. These troughs will pull colder air across Northern
AK and cause temperatures to cool dramatically through Mon.
This cold pattern will persist for much of next week.

Surface...
A 999 MB low 300 NM north of Barter Island will move north
tonight. A low pressure trough stretching south from this low to
Delta junction will weaken tonight. Areas of light rain and snow
along this will taper off tonight.

 A 998 MB low north of Wrangel Island will move to 200 NM
northwest of Utqiagvik as a 996 mb low by 4pm Sat, and to 100 NM
north of Utqiagvik as a 992 mb low by 4pm Sat. A cold front
stretching from this low to Utqiagvik to the YK Delta will move to
Deadhorse to Denali by 4am Sat, to Barter Island to Tok by 4pm
Sat and along the ALCAN Border Sat night. This will bring several
inches of snow to the Brooks Range, and 1 inch or less to the
Eastern Interior above 1500 feet. It will bring temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s along with winds of 10-15 mph on Sat.

A 1002 mb low southwest of Wrangel Island will move to the
southern Chukchi sea as a 1002 mb low by 4pm Sat, to Anaktuvuk
Pass by 4pm Sun, and then to Inuvik on Mon. A cold front trailing
this low will move south over the Seward On on Sat night, to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Gambell by 4pm Sun, and to Old Crow to Delta
Junction by 4pm Mon. This will bring several inches of wet snow
to many areas Sun into Mon with temps in the 20s and 30s Sun night
and Mon. Areas can expect 2-4 inches of snow over the North Slope,
with several inches over the Interior above 1000 ft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4pm Sun, with slight differences showing
up by 4pm Mon. Will use a blend of the NAM/GFS/ECMF through Sun,
with more uncertainty for timing of frontal movements on Sun night
and Mon.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4pm
Sun, with differences showing up with locations Sun night and Mon.
Will use a blend of the NAM/GFS and ECMF for precip, but with
greater uncertainty of amounts and locations for precip Sun night
and Mon.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on features near Alaska.
Models show similar surface solutions through 4am Sun, with
models then differing on the location and strength of the low just
north of Utqiagvik for later on Sun and Mon. At this time we will
use the GFS for surface features and winds since it shows slower
movement on the low near Utqiagvik Sun with movement picking up on
Mon which better aligns with the low aloft. One caveat is that
there is increasing uncertainty of location and strength of
surface features on Mon.

Bottom line is that we will use a blend of models for temps,
clouds, precip through Mon with greater uncertainty Sun night and
Mon. For surface features and winds will will use the GFS with
the caveat that there is increasing uncertainty of location and
strength of surface features on Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf from the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik from Sat night
through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers slowly falling. No flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JB SEP 21

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