Small Craft Advisory 129, NWS Fairbanks, AK

912 
FZAK52 PAFG 191039
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-200215-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A cold front will move through the northern Bering Sea tonight 
into the West Coast Sun morning. Ridging will move into the 
Central Bering Sun afternoon into Mon morning.

A 990 MB low 100 nm northwest of Point Barrow will move to 7150 
nm north of Prudhoe Bay at 994 mb Mon morning, then into the high 
arctic at 996 mb Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ200-200215-
Norton Sound-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt shifting to N winds 20 kt late this morning.
Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-200215-
Dall Point to Wales-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-200215-
Kotzebue Sound-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-200215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

980 
FZAK52 PAFG 192212
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-201430-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 MB low 75 nm NNW of Utqiagvik will move E to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 993 MB Mon morning, then N to 350 nm N of Prudhoe
Bay at 995 MB Tue morning. Ridging will move into the Central 
Bering this afternoon into Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-201430-
Norton Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-201430-
Dall Point to Wales-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-201430-
Kotzebue Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-201430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

140 
FZAK52 PAFG 201206
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-210215-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB low 75 nm N of Utqiagvik will move to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 996 MB Mon afternoon, then move into the high 
arctic and weaken through Tue night. A 1015 mb low will cross 
Saint Lawrence Island from the Gulf of Anadyr Tue then move to the
YK Delta at 1007 mb Tue night, then move south into Bristol Bay 
by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-210215-
Norton Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-210215-
Dall Point to Wales-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-210215-
Kotzebue Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-210215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
555 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend as
a transition occurs to more winter like weather in the Interior.
Most of the weather will be driven from a series of low pressures
that will develop off the central and northwest Arctic Coast over
the next several days. These lows will send a couple of cold
fronts that will move across the Interior today and then Sunday
night and into Monday morning, with increasing potential for snow
across the region. The North Slope and Brooks Range will remain
under snowy conditions through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level pattern continues to be dominated by an upper
level longwave trough across northern Alaska. A closed low is
located just to the northeast of Wrangel Island and will move just
offshore of Utqiagvik by Sunday morning. This upper level feature
will remain in the general vicinity in the Beaufort Sea going into
the work week.

A shortwave associated with the upper level closed low is
situated north to south from Nuiqsut to McGrath and will move
across the Interior today and be across the AlCan border by
Sunday morning. A second shortwave will push across the West Coast
on Sunday before reaching the Interior by Monday morning and
stalling west of Fairbanks.

At this point, a second closed low area in the Gulf of Alaska
begins to interact with the second strong shortwave moving across
the Interior on Monday. Models differ on how these two features
interact, thus continuing to cause uncertainty in what to expect
beginning Monday afternoon, particularly with precipitation in the
eastern Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A couple of cold fronts will move through the area going into next
week. The first front will move through today, bringing primarily
rain, with snow in higher elevations of the Alaska Range and
southeastern Brooks Range. As this front exits the state this
evening, a second front will begin to push in from the west tonight.
This front will bring a more widespread opportunity for snow all
the way to valley level in spots of the Interior through Monday
morning. Heavier snow will remain to the north along the Dalton
Highway, hence the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories for snow,
with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Areas south and east of this
area will see anywhere from a dusting up to one inch, primarily
above 1000 feet. As a result of these fronts, expect below normal
temperatures by Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A series of surface low pressures will bring continual active
weather across the North Slope and Brooks Range going into next
week. Primarily northwest flow across the northwest Arctic Coast
will result in snow showers in this region and to the northwest
Brooks Range over the next several days. Snow accumulations of 2
to 6 inches along the coast, with amounts up to 12 inches along
the western Brooks Range expected through Monday night. Further
east, 3 to 6 inches also possible along the Dalton Highway through
Atigun Pass. Winds out of the northwest expected to increase with
the development of a surface low near Utqiagvik by Sunday night
bring strong onshore flow with gusts to 40 mph through Monday.
Temperatures expected to remain below normal going into the middle
of next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Much like the rest of northern Alaska, the portions of the West
Coast and Western Interior will receive snow from the Seward
Peninsula north through tomorrow. Total accumulations up to an
inch expected, with larger amounts along the foothills of the
Brooks Range. Strong northwest winds gusting to 35 mph will bring
elevated surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Kotzebue Sound
Coasts beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting until Monday
morning. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions elsewhere, with
temperatures trending down to well below normal by Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...Elevated surf of 1 to 2 feet expected
along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Kotzebue Sound Coast as strong
northwest winds develop on Sunday. The elevated surf is expected
to last from Sunday afternoon and into Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

SEP 21