Small Craft Advisory 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

468 
FZAK52 PAFG 182200
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-191515-
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 MB low near the Gulf of Anadyr will weaken this afternoon.
A cold front will move through the northern Bering Sea tonight
into the West Coast Sun morning. Ridging will move into the 
Central Bering Sun afternoon into Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-191515-
Norton Sound-
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ210-191515-
Dall Point to Wales-
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-191515-
Kotzebue Sound-
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-191515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
200 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

912 
FZAK52 PAFG 191039
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-200215-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A cold front will move through the northern Bering Sea tonight 
into the West Coast Sun morning. Ridging will move into the 
Central Bering Sun afternoon into Mon morning.

A 990 MB low 100 nm northwest of Point Barrow will move to 7150 
nm north of Prudhoe Bay at 994 mb Mon morning, then into the high 
arctic at 996 mb Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ200-200215-
Norton Sound-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt shifting to N winds 20 kt late this morning.
Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-200215-
Dall Point to Wales-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-200215-
Kotzebue Sound-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-200215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
239 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

980 
FZAK52 PAFG 192212
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-201430-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 MB low 75 nm NNW of Utqiagvik will move E to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 993 MB Mon morning, then N to 350 nm N of Prudhoe
Bay at 995 MB Tue morning. Ridging will move into the Central 
Bering this afternoon into Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-201430-
Norton Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-201430-
Dall Point to Wales-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-201430-
Kotzebue Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-201430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

140 
FZAK52 PAFG 201206
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-210215-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB low 75 nm N of Utqiagvik will move to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 996 MB Mon afternoon, then move into the high 
arctic and weaken through Tue night. A 1015 mb low will cross 
Saint Lawrence Island from the Gulf of Anadyr Tue then move to the
YK Delta at 1007 mb Tue night, then move south into Bristol Bay 
by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-210215-
Norton Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-210215-
Dall Point to Wales-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-210215-
Kotzebue Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-210215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

301 
FZAK52 PAFG 202245
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211430-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 MB low 120 nm N of Prudhoe Bay will move into the high 
arctic and weaken through Tue night. High extending from the 
Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta will weaken this evening. A 1013 
mb low will cross Saint Lawrence Island from the Gulf of Anadyr 
late tonight, then move to the YK Delta at 1007 mb Tue night, then
move south into Bristol Bay by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-211430-
Norton Sound-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-211430-
Dall Point to Wales-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-211430-
Kotzebue Sound-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-211430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

479 
FZAK52 PAFG 211149
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220215-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 mb low over Saint Lawrence Island this morning will move 
to the YK Delta at 1007 mb this afternoon, then move south into 
Bristol Bay by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-220215-
Norton Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-220215-
Dall Point to Wales-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt N of Saint Lawrence Island. SW winds 25 kt
S of Saint Lawrence Island becoming N 30 kt in the late afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-220215-
Kotzebue Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-220215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Several cold fronts will track east across Northern Alaska
through Mon. The first front will move from its current location
in NW Alaska to the ALCAN Border by Sat night, and bring several
inches of snow to the Brooks Range, and 1 inch or less to the
Eastern Interior above 2000 feet. It will bring temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s along with winds of 10-15 mph on Sat.

The second cold front will move to NW Alaska Sat PM, to the
Western North Slope and Western Interior Sat night, to the
Central North Slope and Central and Western Interior on Sun, then
to the Eastern North Slope, Eastern Interior and Southwest Interior
Sun night and Mon. This will bring several inches of wet snow to
many areas Sun into Mon with temps in the 20s and 30s Sun night
and Mon. Areas can expect 2-4 inches of snow over the North Slope
and areas above 1000 ft of the Interior.

Aloft...
A long wave trough over Alaska Will persist into next week.
Several short wave trough will move from Russia east across
Northern Alaska pushing cold fronts and their associated weather
east with them. These troughs will pull colder air across Northern
AK and cause temperatures to cool dramatically through Mon.
This cold pattern will persist for much of next week.

Surface...
A 999 MB low 300 NM north of Barter Island will move north
tonight. A low pressure trough stretching south from this low to
Delta junction will weaken tonight. Areas of light rain and snow
along this will taper off tonight.

 A 998 MB low north of Wrangel Island will move to 200 NM
northwest of Utqiagvik as a 996 mb low by 4pm Sat, and to 100 NM
north of Utqiagvik as a 992 mb low by 4pm Sat. A cold front
stretching from this low to Utqiagvik to the YK Delta will move to
Deadhorse to Denali by 4am Sat, to Barter Island to Tok by 4pm
Sat and along the ALCAN Border Sat night. This will bring several
inches of snow to the Brooks Range, and 1 inch or less to the
Eastern Interior above 1500 feet. It will bring temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s along with winds of 10-15 mph on Sat.

A 1002 mb low southwest of Wrangel Island will move to the
southern Chukchi sea as a 1002 mb low by 4pm Sat, to Anaktuvuk
Pass by 4pm Sun, and then to Inuvik on Mon. A cold front trailing
this low will move south over the Seward On on Sat night, to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Gambell by 4pm Sun, and to Old Crow to Delta
Junction by 4pm Mon. This will bring several inches of wet snow
to many areas Sun into Mon with temps in the 20s and 30s Sun night
and Mon. Areas can expect 2-4 inches of snow over the North Slope,
with several inches over the Interior above 1000 ft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4pm Sun, with slight differences showing
up by 4pm Mon. Will use a blend of the NAM/GFS/ECMF through Sun,
with more uncertainty for timing of frontal movements on Sun night
and Mon.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4pm
Sun, with differences showing up with locations Sun night and Mon.
Will use a blend of the NAM/GFS and ECMF for precip, but with
greater uncertainty of amounts and locations for precip Sun night
and Mon.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on features near Alaska.
Models show similar surface solutions through 4am Sun, with
models then differing on the location and strength of the low just
north of Utqiagvik for later on Sun and Mon. At this time we will
use the GFS for surface features and winds since it shows slower
movement on the low near Utqiagvik Sun with movement picking up on
Mon which better aligns with the low aloft. One caveat is that
there is increasing uncertainty of location and strength of
surface features on Mon.

Bottom line is that we will use a blend of models for temps,
clouds, precip through Mon with greater uncertainty Sun night and
Mon. For surface features and winds will will use the GFS with
the caveat that there is increasing uncertainty of location and
strength of surface features on Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf from the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik from Sat night
through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers slowly falling. No flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JB SEP 21