Winter Storm Watch 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold As Ice! That's the simplest way to summarize Northern Alaska
conditions through mid-week, as temperatures will generally be in
the 20 to 50 below range each day. A strong weather front will
move into the West Coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
gusty winds, widespread snowfall, and much warmer temperatures. As
the front spreads inland Thursday and Friday it will warm
temperatures back up to seasonable levels, and bring chances for
snow. This active weather pattern is expected to continue into the
weekend across Northern Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A high amplitude upper level pattern is in place, consisting of a
deep and cold trough over much of mainland Alaska and the eastern
Gulf of Alaska, as well as a ridge that extends from the Pacific
up across the Aleutians and far Western Alaska, and finally a
stacked low over the western Bering Sea. Mostly clear skies and
cold temperatures in the 20 to 45 below range are being observed
across Northern Alaska this morning as we sit under dry NW flow
between the ridge and deep trough. A weakening weather front
associated with the stacked low in the western Bering Sea is
sending a nice shield of clouds over the West Coast, but light
snowfall will only push as far north as St Lawrence Island to the
southern Yukon Delta. The pressure gradient between the front and
high pressure over the Chukchi Sea is creating some gusty north-
northeast winds and cold wind chills for areas from the Bering
Strait south.

Model Discussion...
Models initialized well and are in fair agreement overall on how
the pattern will progress over the coming days. The upper level
ridge and the shortwave following behind it will push into and
slide along the base of the cold trough over Northern Alaska
through tonight. On Tuesday, another ridge will move through the
Bering Sea and will push into the Northern AK trough, kicking it
east over the Yukon by Wednesday night. A strong stacked low will
be moving across the Bering Sea behind this ridge, and will send
a front into the West Coast early Wednesday, which will reach into
the Interior on Thursday. There are some discrepancies in the
models on the exact track of this low and its associated front,
so we went with a general blend of models for the forecast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Brrr! We have some cold temperatures around this morning, with
most areas in the 30 to 40 below range under clear skies and calm
winds. There is some patchy fog around out there, especially in
the Fairbanks bowl, which is expected with temperatures this
cold. Later on this afternoon, the Tanana Valley Jet (southeast
winds from Dot Lake through Delta Junction) will pick up a bit and
lead to wind chills as low as 55 below through late tonight, so a
Wind Chill Warning is in effect for that area. On Tuesday, most
areas will still be seeing temperatures in the 30 to 45 below
range with mostly clear skies, but the far southeast Interior will
have some clouds and chances for light snow. The cold
temperatures and quiet weather will continue through Wednesday
night before clouds start to move in and warm things up. These
clouds are associated with a front that will be moving in from the
west, which may also bring a few inches of the white stuff with
it as it moves through on Thursday and Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Clear, calm, and cold this morning in the Interior areas, with
temperatures ranging 25 to 40 below. Not quite as cold, but still
chilly temperatures and occasionally gusty winds are being seen
along the coast, with wind chills as low as 45 below along the
Bering Strait Coast. High clouds are moving in from the southwest
associated with a weakening front in the Bering, but light snow
will only make it as far north as St Lawrence Island to the
southern Yukon Delta.
The cold temperatures and fairly quiet weather will continue on
Tuesday, before a stronger weather front begins to move into the
area late Tuesday night. This will bring widespread snowfall to
both the coastal and inland areas Wednesday into Thursday, as well
as gusty winds along the coast. This storm will not be nearly as
strong as the last one, but there will be difficult travel
conditions and reduced visibility at times, especially for St
Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta which will see the strongest
winds. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather is being seen in most areas this morning, with
temperatures ranging 20 to 40 below, and some clouds and flurries
east of the Dalton Highway. Conditions will not change much
through Wednesday, with continued cool temperatures and mostly
clear skies. Easterly winds will increase along the Chuckchi Sea
Coast Wednesday, with the potential for blowing and drifting snow.
A weather front will start to push across the Brooks Range from
the south on Thursday, bringing along much warmer temperatures and
chances for snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Towards the end of this week and into the weekend, conditions
across Northern Alaska will trend warmer and snowier as we move
into a more progressive and active pattern. The first of
a potential series of fronts will be pushing across Northern
Alaska on Thursday and Friday, bringing warmer temperatures and
widespread snow to the entire area. Models are in decent agreement
on another, weaker system moving into the West Coast late Friday
into Saturday. Finally, at the end of the extended period, models
are showing the potential for a very strong storm to move into the
West Coast early Sunday, spreading across the rest of the Northern
Alaska on Monday. A lot of uncertainty exists during this period,
so stay tuned for more updates!

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ213.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ223.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

&&

CULVER DEC 21