Wind Chill Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

339 
WWAK42 PAFG 150052
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

AKZ213-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-211215T0300Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0028.211215T0300Z-211216T0900Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Extreme Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be 
  very difficult to impossible. Damage to power lines is possible.
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, are expected. Wind 
  chills to 45 below. Winds gusting to 70 mph. 

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast.

* WHEN...6 PM today to midnight Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 70 mph will cause 
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the
  snow is likely. Cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero will 
  cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

$$

AKZ212-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-211215T2100Z/
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0026.211215T2100Z-211216T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0300Z-211216T2100Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold winds chills to 45 below are occuring. Snow and
  blowing snow with low visibility are expected Wednesday through
  Thursday. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, are expected. Visibility will 
  be one half mile or less at times. 

* WHERE...Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills.

* WHEN...6 PM today to noon Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold wind chills to 45 below will
  continue through Wednesday morning. Cold wind chills as low as
  45 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin. Snow and blowing snow developing Wednesday, will
  cause periods of low visibility from Wednesday through 
  Thursday. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow Wednesday and Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ207-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-211215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0052Z-211217T0100Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold winds chills to 55 below occuring. Snow and 
  blowing snow with low visibility expected Wednesday and 
  Thursday. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Wind chills to 55
  below. Visibility one half mile or less at times. Additional 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Chukchi Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills to 55 below will continue
  through Wednesday morning. Cold wind chills as low as 55 below
  zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed
  skin. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph Wednesday and Thursday will
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow Wednesday into 
  Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ208-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0054.211215T0900Z-211216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0600Z-211217T0100Z/
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, and Red Dog Mine
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM AKST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold winds chills to 55 below occuring. Snow and
  blowing snow with low visibility expected Wednesday and
  Thursday. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Wind chills to 55
  below. Visibility one half mile or less at times. Additional
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 50 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ215-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-211215T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0900Z-211217T0100Z/
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
and Flat
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM AKST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, are expected. Cold Wind
  chills to 50 below area expected late tonight and early
  Wednesday. 

* WHERE...Lower Yukon Valley.

* WHEN...Midnight to 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.
  Winds increasing tonight will cause Cold wind chills as low as
  50 below zero from late tonight through early Wednesday. Snow 
  developing Wednesday will continue into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ209-150900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.A.0004.211215T0900Z-211216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0600Z-211217T0100Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Including Kotzebue, Selawik, and Noorvik
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM AKST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Wind chills to 55 below expected tonight and Wednesday.
  Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected Wednesday
  afternoon through Thursday. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.
  Visibility will be one half mile or less at times. 

* WHERE...Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills to 55 below
  zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed
  skin tonight and Wednesday. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will cause areas of blowing
  and drifting snow with low visibility. Travel will be difficult
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ211-150900-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0026.211215T2100Z-211216T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0300Z-211216T2100Z/
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills to 50 below tonight. Snow and blowing
  snow with low visibility expected Wednesday through Thursday 
  morning. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Southern Seward Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...6 PM today to noon Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Cold wind chills to 50 below zero will
  cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin
  tonight and Wednesday. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph Wednesday
  through Thursday will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow
  with low visibility. Travel will be difficult Wednesday through
  Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ214-150900-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0026.211215T0900Z-211216T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0600Z-211216T0900Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations 4
  inches are expected. Visibility one half mile or less at times.
 
* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...9 PM today to midnight Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow with low visibility. Travel
  will be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ210-150900-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211215T0600Z-211217T0100Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills to 50 below tonight. Snow and blowing
  snow with low visibility expected Wednesday through Thursday. 
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches, are expected. Visibility one half mile or less 
  at times.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Cold wind chills to 50 below zero will
  cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin
  tonight and Wednesday. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph 
  Wednesday through Thursday will cause areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow with low visibility. Travel will be difficult 
  Wednesday through Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ217-150900-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0126.211216T0000Z-211217T0100Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
352 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM
AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Cold
  wind chills to 50 below exepcted Wednesday. Plan difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, 
  are expected. Visibility one half mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...3 PM Wednesday to 4 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 50 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

SYNOPSIS...
A very cold airmass now over Northern Alaska will persist into
mid-week, then Northern Alaska will transition into a westerly
flow pattern that brings warmer conditions with periods of snow in
the second half of the week. Will see very cold wind chills
through Wed in areas prone to easterly winds.

Expect a strong storm moving into the Bering Sea on Tuesday and
Wednesday will bring heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions
to St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta Tuesday night and Wed,
and to the remainder of the West Coast of Alaska on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will also bring moderate amounts of snow
into the Western and Central Interior Wednesday night and
Thursday, and to the Ern Interior Thu and Fri.

A southwest flow pattern developing on the weekend over Northern
Alaska will bring the potential for heavy snow from the Brooks
Range south for Sat night through Mon or Tue, blizzard conditions
over the West Coast Sat night through Mon, and even mixed or
freezing precipitation along the West Coast and Southwest Interior
Sat night through Sun. There is even a potential for coastal
flooding along the West Coast Sun-Mon.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough stretching from the
North Pole south over Alaska into the eastern Gulf of Alaska, a
ridge over the Central North Pacific and Bering Sea, and a second
trough over the NW Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk. This pattern is
becoming progressive as a series of strong short wave troughs
make their way east. The ridge will move east over Mainland AK by
Wed, then flatten slightly Thu as a strong short wave troughs
makes its way inland. After that time, southwest flow aloft will
bring a series of strong short waves trough inland over Northern
AK.

This means that Interior AK will stay very cold into Wed, then
warm from west to east Wed night and Thu as clouds and snow spread
east. The strong short wave will bring significant snow to West
Coast AK Tue nigh through Wed night, and into the Western Interior
Wed night and Thu, before moving over the Ern Interior Thu.

It also means that Northern Alaska will have the potential
for heavy snow from the Brooks Range south for Sat night through
Mon or Tue, blizzard conditions over the West Coast Sat night
through Mon, and even mixed or freezing precipitation along the
West Coast and Southwest Interior Sat night through Sun.

A weak low aloft over the NE INterior will linger into Tue night,
then move east. FLurries and clouds associated with this will keep
the NE Interior less cold through Tue night.

Surface...
High pressure over the North Slope of Alaska will persist into
Wed. This will keep conditions generally cold and clear over the
North Slope through through Wed.

A weather front over the southeast Bering Sea will move east into
the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This has caused NE winds of 10-20 mph
along the West Coast that are causing areas of cold wind chills.
Those winds will taper off briefly early on Tue most areas.
This front will cause SE flow over the SE Interior Tue and Tue
night bringing light snow to the Interior southeast of Delta
Junction and Eagle Tue and Tue night.

A strong storm southeast of Shemya will move into the Western
Bering Sea on Tue, and to the Central Bering Sea on Wed. A weather
front associated with this storm will move to the Central Bering
Sea on Tue, and over the Eastern Bering Sea on Wed, over the West
Coast of Alaska Wed night, and into the Central Interior on Thu.
This will bring high winds, heavy snow and blizzard conditions to
St Lawrence Island Tue evening, to the Yukon Delta Tue night,
with those conditions continuing into Wed night and dropping 4-8
inches of snow.

Snow, blowing snow, and possible blizzard conditions are expected
to spread to the remainder of the West Coast of Alaska on
Wednesday and Wednesday night with about 4 inches. This will also
bring snow into the Western and Central Interior Wednesday night
and Thursday with 3-7 inches. By the time the snow spreads into
the Eastern Interior Thu and Fri, it will only drop 2-4 inches.

A storm moving to SW AK Fri will bring more snow to the West Coast
on Fri.

A very strong storm moving into the Wrn Bering on Sat will move to
Bering Strait on Sun. This will bring the potential for heavy
snow from the Brooks Range south for Sat night through Mon or Tue,
blizzard conditions over the West Coast Sat night through Mon,
and even mixed or freezing precipitation along the West Coast and
Southwest Interior Sat night through Sun. There is even a
potential for coastal flooding along the West Coast Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3am Thu, then differ on speed and
strength of short waves for Thu with the NAM and GFS fairly close
still on Thu. One thing models do all agree on is SW flow pattern
developing on the weekend over Nrn AK with potential for heavy
snow from the Brooks Range south, blizzard conditions over the
West Coast, and evening mixed or freezing precipitation along the
West Coast and SW Interior Sat night through Mon.

With precipitation, models vary with speed of bringing in precip
to the West Coast on Wed, with the ECMF faster than the NAM and
GFS by 6-12 hours. At this point favor slower spread of
precipitation shown by GFS/NAM Wed and Thu, since the feature
causing this is deep by Tue, and it should move slowly.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well over Alaska, but are all
3-5 mb too weak on surface lows over the Western Bering Sea. These
lows are now weakening, but this will still add a few kt to model
winds over the Bering Sea through tonight. Models show similar
solutions through 3am Tue, then the NAM and Canadian are weaker
with the strong low in the Western Bering Sea than the GFS and
ECMF. Favor a blend of the GFS and ECMF for surface features and
winds through Thu due to this.

Bottom line for models is we will use a blend of the NAM and GFS
for precip amounts and areal coverage, and temperatures, and use
the GFS for surface winds.

850 mb temps are in the -20C to -30 range across Northern Alaska,
and remain that cold into Wed, except over SW AK where temperatures
will start to rise Tue and then rise across the West Coast and Wrn
Interior on Wed, then rise across the Ern Interior and North
Slope Wed night and Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds developing on the weekend over Bering Sea
will bring potential for coastal flooding along the West Coast
Sun-Mon.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ215.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ223.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB DEC 21