Brisk Wind Advisory 240, NWS Fairbanks, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFG 150100
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-151545-
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low in the Western Bering Sea will move to the Central
Bering Sea as a 974 mb low by 3pm Wed, then to 100 NM west of
Gambell as a 989 mb low by 3pm Thu, and to the southern Chukchi
Sea as a 100 MB low by 3pm Fri. A trailing low will move into the
southern Bering Sea on Thu, and to the Eastern Bering Sea as as
985 mb low Fri. 

$$

PKZ200-151545-
Norton Sound-
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-151545-
Dall Point to Wales-
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-151545-
Kotzebue Sound-
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-151545-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 14 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

SYNOPSIS...
A very cold airmass now over Northern Alaska will persist into
mid-week, then Northern Alaska will transition into a westerly
flow pattern that brings warmer conditions with periods of snow in
the second half of the week. Will see very cold wind chills
through Wed in areas prone to easterly winds.

Expect a strong storm moving into the Bering Sea on Tuesday and
Wednesday will bring heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions
to St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta Tuesday night and Wed,
and to the remainder of the West Coast of Alaska on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will also bring moderate amounts of snow
into the Western and Central Interior Wednesday night and
Thursday, and to the Ern Interior Thu and Fri.

A southwest flow pattern developing on the weekend over Northern
Alaska will bring the potential for heavy snow from the Brooks
Range south for Sat night through Mon or Tue, blizzard conditions
over the West Coast Sat night through Mon, and even mixed or
freezing precipitation along the West Coast and Southwest Interior
Sat night through Sun. There is even a potential for coastal
flooding along the West Coast Sun-Mon.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough stretching from the
North Pole south over Alaska into the eastern Gulf of Alaska, a
ridge over the Central North Pacific and Bering Sea, and a second
trough over the NW Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk. This pattern is
becoming progressive as a series of strong short wave troughs
make their way east. The ridge will move east over Mainland AK by
Wed, then flatten slightly Thu as a strong short wave troughs
makes its way inland. After that time, southwest flow aloft will
bring a series of strong short waves trough inland over Northern
AK.

This means that Interior AK will stay very cold into Wed, then
warm from west to east Wed night and Thu as clouds and snow spread
east. The strong short wave will bring significant snow to West
Coast AK Tue nigh through Wed night, and into the Western Interior
Wed night and Thu, before moving over the Ern Interior Thu.

It also means that Northern Alaska will have the potential
for heavy snow from the Brooks Range south for Sat night through
Mon or Tue, blizzard conditions over the West Coast Sat night
through Mon, and even mixed or freezing precipitation along the
West Coast and Southwest Interior Sat night through Sun.

A weak low aloft over the NE INterior will linger into Tue night,
then move east. FLurries and clouds associated with this will keep
the NE Interior less cold through Tue night.

Surface...
High pressure over the North Slope of Alaska will persist into
Wed. This will keep conditions generally cold and clear over the
North Slope through through Wed.

A weather front over the southeast Bering Sea will move east into
the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This has caused NE winds of 10-20 mph
along the West Coast that are causing areas of cold wind chills.
Those winds will taper off briefly early on Tue most areas.
This front will cause SE flow over the SE Interior Tue and Tue
night bringing light snow to the Interior southeast of Delta
Junction and Eagle Tue and Tue night.

A strong storm southeast of Shemya will move into the Western
Bering Sea on Tue, and to the Central Bering Sea on Wed. A weather
front associated with this storm will move to the Central Bering
Sea on Tue, and over the Eastern Bering Sea on Wed, over the West
Coast of Alaska Wed night, and into the Central Interior on Thu.
This will bring high winds, heavy snow and blizzard conditions to
St Lawrence Island Tue evening, to the Yukon Delta Tue night,
with those conditions continuing into Wed night and dropping 4-8
inches of snow.

Snow, blowing snow, and possible blizzard conditions are expected
to spread to the remainder of the West Coast of Alaska on
Wednesday and Wednesday night with about 4 inches. This will also
bring snow into the Western and Central Interior Wednesday night
and Thursday with 3-7 inches. By the time the snow spreads into
the Eastern Interior Thu and Fri, it will only drop 2-4 inches.

A storm moving to SW AK Fri will bring more snow to the West Coast
on Fri.

A very strong storm moving into the Wrn Bering on Sat will move to
Bering Strait on Sun. This will bring the potential for heavy
snow from the Brooks Range south for Sat night through Mon or Tue,
blizzard conditions over the West Coast Sat night through Mon,
and even mixed or freezing precipitation along the West Coast and
Southwest Interior Sat night through Sun. There is even a
potential for coastal flooding along the West Coast Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3am Thu, then differ on speed and
strength of short waves for Thu with the NAM and GFS fairly close
still on Thu. One thing models do all agree on is SW flow pattern
developing on the weekend over Nrn AK with potential for heavy
snow from the Brooks Range south, blizzard conditions over the
West Coast, and evening mixed or freezing precipitation along the
West Coast and SW Interior Sat night through Mon.

With precipitation, models vary with speed of bringing in precip
to the West Coast on Wed, with the ECMF faster than the NAM and
GFS by 6-12 hours. At this point favor slower spread of
precipitation shown by GFS/NAM Wed and Thu, since the feature
causing this is deep by Tue, and it should move slowly.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well over Alaska, but are all
3-5 mb too weak on surface lows over the Western Bering Sea. These
lows are now weakening, but this will still add a few kt to model
winds over the Bering Sea through tonight. Models show similar
solutions through 3am Tue, then the NAM and Canadian are weaker
with the strong low in the Western Bering Sea than the GFS and
ECMF. Favor a blend of the GFS and ECMF for surface features and
winds through Thu due to this.

Bottom line for models is we will use a blend of the NAM and GFS
for precip amounts and areal coverage, and temperatures, and use
the GFS for surface winds.

850 mb temps are in the -20C to -30 range across Northern Alaska,
and remain that cold into Wed, except over SW AK where temperatures
will start to rise Tue and then rise across the West Coast and Wrn
Interior on Wed, then rise across the Ern Interior and North
Slope Wed night and Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds developing on the weekend over Bering Sea
will bring potential for coastal flooding along the West Coast
Sun-Mon.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ215.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ223.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB DEC 21