Wind Chill Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

399 
WWAK43 PAFG 202054
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1154 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

AKZ225-202200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210220T2100Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
1154 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind chill conditions will continue to improve through the
afternoon as temperatures continue to warm.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitter wind chill continue on the Eastern North Slope and West
Coast to the south of the Bering Strait, well below normal
temperatures push back into the Interior as snow diminishes over
the Southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. Well below
normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend
before a pattern shift brings a return to a warmer and snowy
pattern over much of Northern Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 20/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.
Models continue to display relatively minimal spread through the
weekend but begin to exhibit spread on large scale features as
early as Monday and Tuesday and then continue to display
significant spread into the long range with the models struggling
with pattern shift early next week.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a deep longwave trough remains over Northern
Alaska with a shortwave currently exiting the Southeast Interior
into the Yukon and Northern British Columbia. A ridge builds north
behind the afore mentioned shortwave over Southern and Southwestern
Alaska on Monday and continues into the middle of next week.
Robust southwest to westerly flow from the surface to 700 mb
pushes into Western Alaska and into the Interior early next week
with warmer temperatures aloft and a moisture laden flow coming
from the Northern Pacific. Timing on particular shortwaves moving
through the pattern continues to be problematic with the model
suite but in general Western and Interior Alaska will likely
transition to a snowy pattern early next week and will continue
with that pattern into late next week. There continues to be some
uncertainty on how much drying southerly flow over the Alaska
Range will manifest with this pattern which would limit snowfall
mainly south and east of Fairbanks. At 850 hpa, temperatures
around 25 below this morning over Fairbanks will warm to around 18
to 20 below by Sunday and Monday but then warm rapidly to around
12 to 8 below by Tuesday as clouds and snow move into the
interior.

At the Surface, a 979 mb low near Kodiak Island combined with 1020
mb high pressure over Eastern Siberia continues to produce cold
northerly winds through and south of the Bering Strait where Wind
Chill Advisories remain in effect. Wind Chill Advisories also
remain in effect for the Eastern North Slope where a 1000 mb low
150 nm north of Demarcation Point combined with low temperatures
and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range continue to produce very cold
wind chill values. Weak high pressure continues to dominate the
Western and Central Interior while a weak low pressure system in
the Yukon retreats to the east bringing an end to the snow over
the Southeastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. High pressure
will continue to push south and east out of Siberia over Northern
Alaska into Monday as a sharp trough rotating around a 986 mb low
over Banks Island pushes south over the Eastern North Slope on
Monday. The sharp trough will increase winds and combined with
falling snow will likely produce low visibilities in blowing snow
along the Eastern North Slope Monday and Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow continues to diminish over the Southeastern Interior
and Eastern Alaska Range this morning as clearing skies and very
chilly conditions push into the area. Temperatures have fallen
into the 30s and 40s below under the cold airmass and clearing
skies over much of the Central Interior. A patch of stratus and
flurries continues to push south and east into the northwestern
portions of the Central Interior from Indian Mountain south to
near Tanana and has moderated temperatures where the clouds have
moved in. Expect well below normal temperatures in the 30s and 40s
below again on Sunday but as flow aloft begins to push in from
the southwest and as clouds and snow move into the area on Monday
and Tuesday expect temperatures to warm to more seasonal to above
normal levels. Moisture streaming in from the southwest from the
Northern Pacific is expected to overrun a cold airmass in the
Interior and will produce periods of snow over much of the Central
Interior beginning Tuesday of next week. Models continue to
struggle on the location of major weather features next week and
how much drying southerly flow aloft will develop for locations
mainly south and east of Fairbanks. These locations will likely
see some snow next week, however if drying southerly flow develops
aloft, snow totals will likely be lower than locations north and
west of Fairbanks.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cloudy conditions with areas of snow flurries have developed
across most of the North Slope. Low wind chill have developed
again over the Eastern North Slope with low temperatures
combining with gusty winds as a weak low 150 nm north of
Demarcation Point slowly drifts to the south. Low wind chills are
expected to continue into Monday for these areas. Occasional
blowing snow issues are not out of the question on top of the wind
chill issues, especially as a trough pushes into the area Monday
and Tuesday brining falling snow and stronger winds. Will need to
monitor for low visibility in blowing snow headlines for these
areas Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain
near or slightly below climatological normal going into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet conditions continue today with mostly clear skies, light
winds and very cold temperatures dominating, however an areas of
stratus has moved into the Western Interior mainly north of Galena
and is currently pushing east into the Central Interior. Areas
remaining cloud free are in the 30s and 40s below while areas with
cloudy conditions areas seeing temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer.
North winds through the Bering Strait and along the West Coast
mainly south of the Bering Strait continue and combined with low
temperatures are producing low wind chill values. Wind Chill
Advisories have been issued for zones 212, 213, 214 and 215.
Temperatures are expected to moderate next week as a return to
southwest flow with a warmer airmass, clouds and periods of snow
return to much of the West Coast and Western Interior.

&&

Days 4 to 7...A pattern shift is expected next week which will
bring a return to warmer temperatures and periods of snow over
much of Northern Alaska. Computer models continue to struggle
with the low placement and frontal movement, but continue to
indicate the potential for periods of heavy snow over much of the
West Coast and Interior next week. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215.
&&

CCC FEB 21