Brisk Wind Advisory 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

594 
FZAK51 PAFG 211242
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-220315-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low just northwest of Banks Island will continue to 
drift northwest today and into Monday, sending a front south to 
the Beaufort Coast today into Monday. High pressure over Eastern 
Siberia will continue to expand east into the Chukchi Sea today.

$$

PKZ225-220315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-220315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-220315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-220315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-220315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
342 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Feb 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
145 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure settled in across the Interior last night,
temperatures plummeted with many valley locations dropping into
the 30s and 40s below under clear skies, with a few locations
nearly reaching that elusive 50 below. Temperatures will moderate
slightly across the Interior this afternoon to the 10s and 20s
below before plummeting once again tonight under clear skies into
the 30s and 40s below. These temperatures coupled with areas of
gusty winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast and West Coast, south
of the Bering Strait, will continue to bring wind chill issues
through Sunday. Expect temperatures to remain below normal across
much of Northern Alaska into Monday, then changes will be in
store across the Interior Tuesday as a pattern shift brings a
return of warmer conditions along with a snowier conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface, models are in good agreement with the placement of
major synoptic features, with a 976 mb low near Kodiak Island and
a 1022 mb high over Eastern Siberia. As the afternoon progresses,
the low near Kodiak will move east to near Yakutat by Sunday
afternoon while the high remains quasi-stationary, building
southeast over Northern Alaska, keeping most locations dry and
cold into Monday. Late Monday night into early Tuesday, a storm
will move into Southwest Alaska from the Bering, starting a major
pattern change that eventually will spread across the Interior
Tuesday. Elsewhere, a trough will rotate south around a 984 mb low
north of Banks Island into the Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday
afternoon into Monday, increasing winds and chances of light
snow. This combination may produce areas of blowing and drifting
snow, reducing visibilities to one half mile or less times along
the Eastern Arctic Coast into Monday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, models initialize well with the main feature
being a 465 decameter (dam) closed low north of Banks Island with
a deep longwave trough extending southwest across Northern Alaska
into the Bering Sea. In this trough, a stout shortwave trough and
associate 498 dam low will develop over the Western Brooks Range
and move southwest into the Bering by Sunday afternoon. This
setup will, with the main upper low remaining north of Banks
Island, continue to pump cold temperatures south into the Interior
into early Monday. A ridge will build late Monday into early
Tuesday over Southwest Alaska then across the Western Interior
into the Eastern Interior by Tuesday evening. This will bring in a
southwesterly to westerly flow across the Interior, increasing
temperatures aloft and pumping moisture in from the Bering and
Northern Pacific, transitioning into a snowier pattern over much
of the Interior through the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cloudy conditions, along with a few flurries, exists over the
Western North Slope while areas east of Utqiagvik have cleared.
Expect temperatures to moderate slightly through this afternoon,
then a return of cold temperatures across the region tonight. Low
wind chill values are expected to continue through Sunday for
portions of the Eastern Arctic Coast from a combination of cold
temperatures and increasing winds. A trough will swing south
across the Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday, increasing
chances of snow. This coupled with a tightening of the pressure
gradient from Deadhorse east to Kaktovik will produce the
strongest winds, aiding in the development of blowing and
drifting snow reducing visibilities to one half mile or less at
times.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Stratus over portions of the Western Interior stretching to the
West Coast is slowly dissipating and will continue for the rest
of the afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate weather
conditions resulting in a quiet weather pattern across the region
through the weekend. Expect mainly clear skies and cold
temperatures, especially for the overnight lows, with areas in the
Western Interior bottoming out in the 30s below tonight and and
again Sunday night. Cold temperatures coupled with with gusty
north winds along the West Coast, low wind chills will continue to
occur through Sunday for a few locations. Then, attention shifts
to the YK Delta as a storm moves in late Monday night and then
into the Western Interior Tuesday. This will create a drastic
pattern change with much warmer temperatures moving into the
region along with an increase chance of snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts mainly clear skies across
much of the Central and Eastern Interior, which allowed
temperatures overnight to plummet into the 30s and 40s below.
Temperatures will continue to moderate this afternoon to the 10s
and 20s below, but look for a return of bitterly cold overnight
lows again tonight with temperatures dipping into the 30s and 40s
below with more of the same for Sunday night. Then, Monday into
Tuesday with a storm moving into Southwest Alaska, the flow aloft
will allow warmer temperatures to move in from the southwest along
with clouds and moisture, increasing chances of snow by Tuesday.
There is still some uncertainty of the exact location of the
heaviest snowfall, as models continue to struggle with the fine
details, stay tuned to the forecast for further updates as we
approach this event.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Tuesday, some changes to look
forward to as storm from the Bering moves onshore over the YK
Delta and then progresses across the Interior through Thursday and
into the Yukon by Friday. This will result in a pattern shift,
bringing warmer temperatures and snow across much of Northern
Alaska south of the Brooks Range, from the West Coast through the
Interior. Elsewhere, the coldest temperatures and driest
conditions will remain north of the Brooks Range, over the North
Slope and Arctic Coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

RZ FEB 21