Wind Chill Advisory 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

916 
WWAK43 PAFG 200503
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
803 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

AKZ223-224-226-200615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-210220T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, 
Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, 
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, 
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
803 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ225-200615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-210220T0600Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
803 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow continuing this afternoon for the Fairbanks area and
east. Snow is expected to taper off this evening and then slowly
clear out in the Fairbanks area by tomorrow morning. Snow in the
eastern Interior will linger through tonight, while blowing snow
through Alaska Range passes and east of Tok will dissipate this
evening. Skies will then clear in the Eastern Interior with colder
temperatures will settle in for the weekend across northern
Alaska with wind chill issues across the North Slope and West
Coast going into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

At 500 mb, a longwave trough continues to drive the weather for
northern Alaska this afternoon. A shortwave currently cutting
through the center of the state and south into the Gulf of Alaska
will move east into Canada by tomorrow morning. A second shortwave
trough currently north of the Arctic Coast will move south over
the North Slope by tomorrow morning and then continue to push
south and east going into Sunday night. A strong upper level
closed low north of Banks Island will slide southwest over the
next couple of days, but confidence of the track of this low is
decreasing going into next week as models differ on placement.
Overall, this feature looks like it won't dig across the North
Slope, but will have to continue to monitor throughout the
weekend.

At 850 mb, colder temperatures have settled across northern
Alaska, as temperatures have dropped from -13C to -26C over 12
hours according to sounding data from Fairbanks. Temperatures
ranging from -20C to -30C are going to remain across most of the
state going into next week. A strong cold core low with central
temperatures around -40C will move south of Banks Island by early
next week, but will remain off the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.
However, there are model discrepancies of where this low will
track beyond Monday.

At the surface, high pressure is anchored across the Interior and
cutting north across the North Slope. A decaying surface low in
the Gulf of Alaska is keeping clouds and snow in the Eastern
Interior this afternoon. North winds through the Alaska Range
passes will persist through this evening as the pressure gradient
remains tight due to the surface low in the Gulf of Alaska and
surface high pressure in the Interior. An occluded front
associated with a surface low in the western Bering will create
conditions for a new surface low to develop as the energy moves
into the Gulf of Alaska by tomorrow morning. Overall, quiet
conditions for northern Alaska, with colder temperatures in the
20s to 40s below for most places that clear out through the
weekend.

Days 4 to 7...Weak ridging looks to build early next week before
another strong trough from the Bering pushes the ridging to the
east. This trough is indicating a change from cold and dry
conditions from this weekend to a warmer and wetter pattern going
into the middle of the week for areas along the West Coast and
portions of the Interior. Surface features such as low placement
and frontal movement have a lot of uncertainty at this point, but
will be trends to monitor as time moves closer to this potential
event.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow has lingered in the Fairbanks area this afternoon.
Current radar is indicating these conditions to continue into this
evening. Areas east of Fairbanks are having more consistent
snowfall, with these conditions continuing into tonight. As the
snow tapers off, clouds are expected to move out of the Fairbanks
area tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s
below zero by tomorrow morning. Strong north winds through Alaska
Range passes expected to persist into this evening before
relaxing by tomorrow morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cloudy conditions have developed across most of the North Slope
this afternoon. Wind chill issues have subsided slightly across
the eastern Arctic coast, but an extended Wind Chill Advisory
remains in effect due to persistent winds out of the west and cold
temperatures remaining in the area through the weekend. Occasional
blowing snow issues are not out of the question on top of the wind
chill issues. Temperatures expected to remain near or slightly
below climatological normal going into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet conditions continuing this afternoon, but stratus has begun
to move into the Western Interior in association with a decaying
front that has moved south of the Brooks Range. Areas remaining
cloud free will see very cold temperatures tonight, with cloudy
areas seeing temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer. North winds will
develop off the West Coast, increasing chances for colder wind
chills going into tomorrow as temperatures look to remain in the
10s to 20s below zero going into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AK213-AK214-AK214-AK225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.
&&

FEB 21