Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Fairbanks, AK

974 
FZAK52 PAFG 131305
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-140230-
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low by 4am Sat, and to 200 NM north of 
Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4am Sun. A cold front associated with
this low will move along the Dateline Sat and then move along the
West Coast of Alaska Sat night.

$$

PKZ200-140230-
Norton Sound-
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-140230-
Dall Point to Wales-
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building 
to 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Rain
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Rain.
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-140230-
Kotzebue Sound-
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-140230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
505 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building 
to 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

060 
FZAK52 PAFG 132228
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-141415-
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low by 4am Sat, and to 200 NM north of 
Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4am Sun. A cold front associated with
this low will move along the Dateline Sat and then move along the
West Coast of Alaska Sat night.

$$

PKZ200-141415-
Norton Sound-
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-141415-
Dall Point to Wales-
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-141415-
Kotzebue Sound-
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-141415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
228 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

357 
FZAK52 PAFG 141106
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150230-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 mb low 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik will move to 350 NM 
north of Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4 am Sunday. The low will 
remain stationary and weaken to 991 mb by 4 am Monday. A cold 
front associated with this low will move eastward through the
Bering Strait today and and then move along the west coast of 
Alaska tonight.

$$

PKZ200-150230-
Norton Sound-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-150230-
Dall Point to Wales-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-150230-
Kotzebue Sound-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-150230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

916 
FZAK52 PAFG 142133
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-151415-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low, and to 200 NM north of Utqiagvik as
a 986 mb low by 4am Sun. The low will remain stationary and 
weaken to 991 mb by 4 am Monday. A cold front associated with this
low will move eastward through the Bering Strait this afternoon  
then move along the west coast of Alaska tonight.

$$

PKZ200-151415-
Norton Sound-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-151415-
Dall Point to Wales-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-151415-
Kotzebue Sound-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-151415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

073 
FZAK52 PAFG 151119
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-160230-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low 350 nm NW of Point Barrow will push a series of
weather fronts east across the northern Chukchi Sea. A weather
front south of the Bering Strait will move slowly southeast and
move inland by early Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ200-160230-
Norton Sound-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-160230-
Dall Point to Wales-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-160230-
Kotzebue Sound-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-160230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad southwest flow is a classic August weather pattern, and we
will remain in this pattern for the foreseeable future. Cooler on
the North Slope with a brief reprieve in rain for the Interior on
Saturday before the next front moves inland Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 525 dam 500 hpa arctic low is anchoring the height field pattern
over Alaska as a broad upper trough is draped over the entire
region. A strong atmospheric river is pointed at Yakutat along the
upper jet stream with a broad upper trough supporting showers
over the Interior. 850 temps over the North Slope are around -8C
and this is supporting snow over the Brooks Range and some snow
showers along the Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers will fill in over the Interior through early tomorrow as
an upper trough shifts eastward. Generally expecting a
quarter inch or less. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over
the Fortymile Uplands today and tomorrow, otherwise, more stable
flow move in for the weekend. Partial clearing tomorrow afternoon
with mostly dry conditions for Saturday ahead of the next system.
This system is expected to move in Sunday bringing more rain to
the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers over the Interior shift east tonight with north flow down
the Bering Strait. A strong front will bring increasing southwest
winds to the coast on Friday and Saturday with the front moving
inland on Saturday night. This will bring near gale force winds
onshore, as well as elevated water levels of 1-2 feet above MHHW
to Norton Sound and the Chukchi Coast Sat and Sat night. Rain will
also move in with 0.5-1" of rainfall, heaviest over the Kobuk and
Noatak Valley. The front moves inland on Sat night and Sun.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers over the eastern Brooks Range will end tonight as the
trough shifts east. Warming temps move in tomorrow as a front
shifts into the west tomorrow afternoon and shifts east through
Sunday, bringing rain to most of the area. Snow levels rise to
4000-5000 feet with this warm front. Gale force southwest winds
will impact the west arctic up to Point Barrow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper troughing shifts east through tomorrow, with rain showers
ending from west to east from tomorrow through Saturday. Isolated
thunder today and tomorrow along the ALCAN over the Fortymile,
otherwise stable to thunderstorms. More rain moves in Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NW Alaska can expect 0.50-1.00 inch of rain Fri night through
Sunday which will cause rises on rivers in NW Alaska this
weekend.

No flooding expected through Sat.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

AHSENMACHER AUG 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

AKZ211-131700-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
138 PM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...Elevated Surf At Nome On Saturday and Sunday...

Tides are expected to be 2 feet higher than normal high tides at
Nome on Saturday and Saturday night. This will cause surf to wash
to the top of the beach, and could wash away anything left on the
beach. People in the Nome area should move belongings off the
beach to prevent them from washing away.

Southwest winds of 25 mph developing Friday night and Saturday
will cause the elevated water levels and elevated surf on
Saturday. The elevated surf will last through Sunday.