Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 183, NWS Fairbanks, AK

November 1, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Nov 1, 2021, 2:13 PM AKDT. It was in force for 38 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 1, 2021, 2:13 PM AKDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired
Nov 3, 2021, 4:20 AM AKDT
In force
38 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

823 
FZAK51 PAFG 012213
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-021400-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 973 mb low is 250 NM N of Wrangel Island moving NW. Low 
pressure extends E across the Arctic to a 1000 mb low 300 nm N of 
Demarcation Pt. High pressure over mainland Alaska is pushing N 
over the Arctic Coast. As the low pressure continues to slide N 
over the Arctic the high will move over the Arctic Coast Tue 
morning at 1015 mb, then to 300 nm N of Demarcation Pt by Tue 
afternoon at 1018 mb. Low pressure will develop in the Arctic 
Plain with a strong pressure gradient over the Eastern Arctic 
Coast. A low will develop over in plain Wed and move offshore.

$$

PKZ225-021400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-021400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-021400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-021400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Snow.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-021400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Nov 21
3 follow-up statements
757 
FZAK51 PAFG 021142
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-030215-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 973 mb low is 350 NM N of Wrangel Island continues to move to
the Northwest. High pressure over mainland Alaska is pushing N 
over the Arctic Coast this morning and will push into the 
Beaufort Sea this evening.

$$

PKZ225-030215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-030215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-030215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing fog and
blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-030215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Freezing fog and
blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-030215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
342 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog and
blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21
798 
FZAK51 PAFG 022115
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-031400-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 975 mb low 400 NM N of Wrangel Island will move to 600 nm N of
Wrangel Island by Wed evening. A 1018 mb high in the Central
Beaufort Sea will move NE as high pressure over Siberia pushes
NE across the Arctic. A 990 mb low will develop near Kaktovik and
move into the Southern Bering Sea by Wed evening, then NE as high
pressure continues to build E across the Arctic.

$$

PKZ225-031400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-031400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-031400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog and
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-031400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-031400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
115 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Nov 21
349 
FZAK51 PAFG 031220
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-040230-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low near 80N and the dateline will continue to weaken 
and move northwest. A weak low will develop over the Eastern 
North Slope today and will deepen to around 988 mb this evening as
it pushes north and east of the McKenzie Delta on Thursday.

$$

PKZ225-040230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-040230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-040230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-040230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-040230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt becoming W. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 1, 2:00 PM AKDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 2:00 PM AKDT, 13 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Lots of moving parts today. Strong low will bring some
heavy snow to the southern Seward Peninsula around Nome. Low
pressure will linger over the coast through Wednesday. Strong
south flow across the Alaska Range will bring a strong moisture
feed into the Eastern Alaska Range with heavy snow in Isabel Pass
and vicinity south of Donnelly Dome. Some light snow is expected
in the Fairbanks area, but generally less than one inch through
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure in the Arctic Plain will slide
over the coast this evening, then offshore Tuesday with strong
gusty east winds developing east of Utqiagvik. Gusty winds are
also expected in Atigun Pass, and near the Alaska Range Passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...01/12Z solutions are in reasonable agreement in the
short term, but show some divergence in the extended periods. Will
be leaning toward an equal blend for the short term, and the WPC
solutions for the later periods. Strong south flow with lots of
moisture continues across the Alaska Range, the problem is just
how much will make through the orographic lift and downsloping
into the Interior. Will lean on the conservative side, away from
the heavy handed GFS, for snowfall in the Interior, but there
will be some areas, the Eastern Alaska Range for one, that will
have some heavier snowfall. On the West Coast the same issue with
the GFS being a bit heavy handed with the QPF, so will lean more
on the NAM and ECMWF solutions. Winds do pick up a bit as leeside
troughing develops north of the Alaska Range, but expect max
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. In the Arctic troughing
developing over the plains with high pressure offshore and over
the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range will produce some
strong pressure gradients east of Utqiagvik, will lean toward the
NAM and Canadian solutions as they bring slightly higher winds
into the area. Will put some blowing snow into those areas as
well, but do not expect extended periods of poor visibility as
falling snow will be limited to flurries.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing extends from a 491 dam low 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island southeast over Point Lay to Ruby to a 530
dam low 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island, then southeast to a 533
dam low near 40N. Troughing also extends south over the Dateline
to a 507 dam low 200 nm north of Amchitka. Ridging continues to
hold over the Central and Eastern Interior as a 567 dam high has
moved over Northeast British Columbia. By Tuesday morning the low
north of Wrangel Island will move northwest to 300 nm northwest of
Wrangel Island and the troughing that was over the Middle Yukon
will rotate over the Arctic to lie over 75N. The low near Kodiak
Island will merge with the low that was to the southeast of it as
it moves north to 400 nm south of Yakutat. The troughing in the
Bering Sea will move to lie in the vicinity of 175W as it extends
south from the low in the Arctic with a 506 dam low near Gamble
with a shortwave extending over Norton Sound, and a 512 dam low
100 nm north of Adak. Ridging will continue to push in to the
Eastern and Central Interior with 550 dam heights over the AlCan
as the high moves over the Northwest Territories and Alberta
Border south of Great Slave Lake at 566 dam. By Tuesday afternoon
the low in the Siberian Arctic will be 400 nm northwest of Wrangel
Island at 486 dam with shortwave extending east over 80N.
Troughing extending south from the low will be over Wrangel Island
to a 508 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr to a 514 dam low near
Nikolski. Several shortwave will be moving north in the flow over
the West Coast. The low in the Northeast Pacific will move over
the southern Gulf of Alaska at 523 dam. Ridging will continue to
push into the Central and Eastern Interior with 545 dam heights
over the AlCan as the high starts to merge into the primary ridge
and the ridging over the state starts to rotate to the northeast
as a strong shortwave associated with the low over the Gulf of
Alaska moves over the Southern Yukon Territory Border. By
Wednesday morning the troughing will remain to the west as the low
over the gulf weakens and merges to the west. The strong
shortwave will move north over the Central and Eastern Interior as
the ridging rotates northeast. At 850 hpa...Warm air around 0C
that was over the Central and Eastern Interior has been pushed
east as cold air pushes in from the northwest. The -10C isotherm
lies from Deadhorse to Bettles to Unalakleet to Savoonga this
afternoon and will slide back to the north as the upper level low
in the Siberian Arctic move northwest. The -10C isotherm will lie
be over the Arctic Coast the across the southern Chukchi Sea and
north of St Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning while the 0C
isotherm will be east of the AlCan. The -10C isotherm will move
north and west of the mainland by Tuesday afternoon, while
temperatures over the southern Central and Eastern Interior will
rise to around 0C and stay that way through Wednesday.

Surface...Pretty messy pressure pattern across the state with Low
pressure over the Arctic, a 1012 mb high over the Western Brooks
Range and high pressure over the Arctic Coast, a 1006 mb low over
the Eastern Brooks Range, a 1004 mb low in the Upper Yukon Flats,
a 1008 mb high in the Middle Yukon Valley with high pressure over
the Western Alaska Range, low pressure south of the Alaska Range
with a 993 mb low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, low pressure in
the Bering Sea with a 987 mb low near St Matthew Island, and a 985
mb low north of Amchitka. Broad area of low pressure from the
Arctic to the Bering to the Gulf of Alaska. The pattern becomes a
bit clearer by Tuesday morning with low pressure over the Western
Arctic, a 1015 mb high over Prudhoe Bay and high pressure pushing
southwest into the Middle Yukon Valley and south over the Eastern
Brooks Range, low pressure to the south and west with a 986 mb low
over St Lawrence Island and a front extending southwest to a 990
mb low near Adak. A 994 mb low will develop ahead of the front and
move east of the Pribilofs. Low pressure to the south will be
anchored by a 986 mb low 400 nm south of Yakutat as the low that
was in the northern gulf weakens and moves into the Southcentral.
Tuesday afternoon low pressure will persist over the western
Arctic as the high moves to 300 nm north of Demarcation Point and
low pressure pushes east across the Arctic Plain. A strong
pressure gradient will develop across the coast east of Utqiagvik
with winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph. As the low pressure pushes
east high pressure will hold over the Interior and strengthen
over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range with a strong
pressure gradient there as well. Expect winds to increase in the
passes to gusting around 25 mph. Low pressure will remain over
the West Coast as it stretches from the Eastern Chukchi Sea to a
993 mb low over Gambell to a 989 mb low over Nunivak Island to a
993 mb low near Cold Bay.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure building over the
area through the evening as south flow continues for most of the
area. As the high pressure moves offshore the winds will turn
from the east along the coast and increase as low pressure builds
east over the plain. Winds will become light over night, then
increase to 15 to 30 mph during the day Tuesday along the coast.
Winds will also increase in the Eastern Brooks Range passes with
south gusts around 25 mph. Locally blowing snow may impact
visibility at times Tuesday. Highs in the 20s, lows in the teens.
Elevated surf is expected from Point Hope to Utqiagvik this
evening as the winds around the low in the Western Arctic ramp up
from the southwest and west.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure system moving to
the coast sets its sights on the southern Seward Peninsula with
heavy snow developing around Nome and just to the north of Nome.
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Nome and vicinity. The
remainder of the area will generally be cloudy with some light
snow or flurries. Southeast to south winds do increase to 10 to 25
mph in most areas, so expect some blowing snow locally, especially
in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound area, to impact visibility
at times. Inland areas will see less clouds and much lower chance
of snow through Tuesday. St Lawrence Island will see 2 to 4 inches
of snow through Tuesday. Highs in the teens and 20s, except
around 30 on St Lawrence Island. Lows in the single digits to the
teens.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some flurries or light
snow for most areas. A strong push of moisture across the Alaska
Range will produce some heavy snow south of Donnelly Dome through
Isabel Pass. Winds do pick up near the passes with gusts around 40
mph so blowing and drifting snow may impact the area. Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range.
Decreasing chances for snow by mid day Tuesday. Temperatures will
be cooling with highs in the lower 30s and lows in the 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will hold over
the Central and Eastern Interior and Arctic with a low pressure
system just off the West Coast. The low will swing a front north
into the Western Interior Thursday with it lingering in the area
through Friday. Troughing developing across the Arctic Plain
Friday with increasing east winds along the coast as a low
develops in the Arctic Plain. The low will move offshore Saturday
with winds decreasing along the coast, and snow spreading east
over the coastal areas to Prudhoe Bay. A low moving near Yakutat
Saturday will send a weather front into the Eastern Interior with
snow developing in the Yukon Territory and spreading northwest to
the Eastern Brooks Range. A low will also develop over the
southwest mainland and move north into the Middle Yukon Valley
spreading snow north into the Western Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB NOV 21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 1, 2:56 AM AKDTWinter Storm WarningAFG30 hr
Nov 1, 3:02 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG5 days
Nov 1, 3:11 AM AKDTGale WarningAFG25 hr
Nov 1, 3:11 AM AKDTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFG49 hr
Nov 1, 2:13 PM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFG38 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.