Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A lot of weather across the area with snow in the
Arctic and western areas diminishing as the low moves into the
Arctic. High Surf developing from Utqiagvik west as the low moves
into the Arctic and seas build. Strong winds in the Alaska Range
will diminish overnight, as will the gusty winds in the Southern
Interior. Decaying front will bring some light snow or flurries to
the Middle Yukon, then as it continues to weaken it will move into
the Central Interior Monday spreading the flurries and light snow
into the area. Heavy snow in the northwest will taper off this
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...31/12Z solutions are in reasonable agreement in the short
term, but show some divergence in the extended periods. Will be
leaning toward an equal blend for the short term, and the WPC
solutions for the later periods. Winds diminishing in the Western
Alaska Range but will remain strong in the Eastern Alaska Range
and around Delta Junction through the evening.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing continues from over Chukotka
southeast over Bristol Bay to a 523 dam low 200 nm south of Kodiak
Island, and a 532 dam low 900 nm south of Yakutat. Ridging with a
567 dam center over British Columbia is pushing northwest into
the Eastern and Central Interior. A couple shortwaves are moving
north in the flow with one over the Alaska Range and another over
the Gulf of Alaska Coast. Monday morning the troughing will lie
from a 499 dam low 150 nm E of Wrangel Island over Norton Sound
and Kodiak Island to a 527 dam low 300 nm southeast of Kodiak
City. The high over British Columbia will slide north and the
gradient aloft will tighten a bit over the Eastern Alaska Range.
Monday afternoon the troughing will lie from 490 dam low 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island over Point Lay to Ruby to 530 dam low 100
nm southeast of Kodiak City then southeast top a 531 dam low near
50N. The high will move over Northeast British Columbia at 566
dam and the gradient over the Eastern Interior will relax
some. Troughing to the west will also extend south over the
Dateline to a 506 dam low 200 nm north of the Aleutians. At 850
hpa...Large dome of warm air around 0C with pockets of around +2C
temperatures mainly east of the Yukon River, with temperatures
around -10C over the West Coast and Seward Peninsula. By Monday
afternoon temperatures will cool with the 0C isotherm moving over
the AlCan Border and the -10C isotherm moving to lie from
Deadhorse to Tanana to Savoonga. Temperatures will warm a bit from
Tuesday through midweek, then start cooling heading into the
weekend.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure from the Arctic to the Bering
to the Gulf of Alaska. High pressure is pushing in over the
Eastern Interior. Strong pressure gradients across the Alaska
and Brooks Ranges with gusty winds. A 988 mb low is over the
Western Brooks Range, with a 991 mb low in the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley. Troughing extends east from the low in the Brooks Range
over the Arctic Coast. Leeside troughing is also holding strong
north of the Alaska Range. A 988 mb low near St Matthew Island
will move southeast, then merge with a 0990 mb low that is moving
east across the Bering Sea and will approach the Dateline Monday
morning. Monday afternoon the low to the north will move to 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island as it strengthens to 970 mb, while the low
in the Bering Sea will be 150 nm north of Adak, and a 989 mb low
will be well south of the gulf of Alaska with a 992 mb low in the
Gulf. High pressure will continue to push in over the Eastern
Interior and Eastern Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally cloudy with light snow
or flurries, but with winds turning offshore tonight and Tuesday
there will be some breaks in the clouds, and flurries. Winds
generally east 10 to 10 mph this evening will be swinging around
from the south and southwest at 10 to 25 mph tonight then diminish
during the day Monday. Highs in the 20s, lows in the teens. Winds
ramp up around the low in the Western Arctic and will increase as
the low strengthens. High Surf Advisories remain in effect as
waves will build Monday and Tuesday on the Northwest and Central
Arctic Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow tapering off overnight for
most Coastal areas, but will continue to be cloudy into Monday,
then some breaks are possible before the next system moves to
Bering Sea coastal areas. In the inland areas, the weather front
will continue to drag north and very slowly slide to the east, so
cloudy conditions will prevail with light snow or flurries
tapering off in the afternoon Monday then some breaks in the
clouds. A low moving to the Central Bering will bring snow to the
Lower Yukon Delta Monday morning spreading north to the strait
by Monday evening. Winds generally variable to 10 mph will turn
from the southeast and south increasing to 15 to 25 mph along the
coast from the Bering Strait south during the day and north of the
Bering Strait Monday evening. Inland winds will remain light.
Highs in the teens and 20s, except around 30 on St Lawrence
Island. Lows in the single digits to the teens.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with a period of light snow
Monday. Strong winds continue in the Eastern Alaska Range and
around Delta Junction, but will be diminishing Monday morning.
Temperatures will be cooling as the winds diminish.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will hold over
the Central and Eastern Interior and Arctic with a low pressure
system just off the West Coast. The low will swing a front north
into the Western Interior Thursday with it lingering in the area
through Friday. High pressure over the Arctic will keep flow
onshore through the extended periods from Utqiagvik west, while a
low will develop in the Arctic Plain along a weak weather front
and move into the Eastern Arctic Saturday. A strong low moving
into the Gulf of Alaska will send a weather front into the Eastern
Interior Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ500.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

SDB OCT 21