Small Craft Advisory 149, NWS Fairbanks, AK

050 
FZAK51 PAFG 081158
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-090230-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure will persist over the Eastern Arctic
today. High pressure will push SE over the Northwest Arctic 
Coast. 

$$

PKZ225-090230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-090230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-090230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-090230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 10 kt. Seas building to 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-090230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
358 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TODAY...E winds 5 kt increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

766 
FZAK51 PAFG 082200
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-091400-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure is pushing S over the Dateline while low pressure 
extends N over the Eastern Arctic. The trough will slowly weaken 
as high pressure pushes S and E across the Arctic Plain Sat. By 
Sun afternoon a 1021 mb high will be over the NW Arctic with high 
pressure over the Central Arctic Coast and the Arctic Plain, while
a 1012 mb low will develop 50 nm N of Bullen Point with low 
pressure extending to the E.

$$

PKZ225-091400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-091400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-091400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-091400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-091400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

912 
FZAK51 PAFG 091250
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-100230-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure continues to push south over the Dateline while low
pressure extends north over the Eastern Arctic to the east of 
Banks Island. A 982 mb low over southwest Alaska will continue to 
weaken.

$$

PKZ225-100230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-100230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-100230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-100230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-100230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
450 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Generally cloudy with rain and snow tapering off from
the west this evening. A short respite between systems. A low
moving to Nunivak Island will spread rain over the Lower Yukon
Delta tonight and into the Middle Yukon and Norton Sound regions
Friday. A front associated with the low will move over the Alaska
Range Friday morning, and into the Interior during the afternoon.
Rain shadow will keep areas close to the Alaska Range dry with
some sprinkles possible from Fairbanks to the White Mountains
before the front reforms with snow developing north of the Yukon
River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 07/12Z solutions are in good agreement in the short
term, but are struggling some with the late midrange and extended
periods so will be leaning more on the Ensemble means for those
periods. Surface solutions initialized well against the 07/15Z
local analysis. Will use a general blend for the short term. Not
making many changes to the temperatures as the current database
looks pretty good. Winds are similar in all the solutions so again
not making many changes. For the probabilities will use the SREF
to kick them up, but will probably still have to nudge them higher
to get categorical precipitation areas.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Trough moving across the state lies from a
529 dam low over Livengood to the southeast Panhandle this
afternoon. Troughing also extends north to a 522 dam low 300 nm
north of Utqiagvik. Ridging that was over the Bering Sea has moves
over the southwest mainland extending northwest to a 529 dam high
over the Chukchi Sea. A low that formed in the Northwest Pacific
has moved over Kiska, and will move over the Pribilofs this
evening as it absorbs a 520 dam low that was over the Northwest
Bering Sea. Friday morning the ridging will lie from Eastern Gulf
of Alaska over McCarthy to Fairbanks to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point
Lay to a 526 dam high near Wrangel Island. The low to the west
will be over Nunivak Island at 528 dam, and the trough that was
over the Interior will be over the Yukon Territory. Friday
afternoon the ridging will be over the Arctic and the Yukon
Territory, while the low will move over Bethel at 512 dam. A
strong shortwave will move over the Alaska Range around noon, then
over the Upper Yukon Valley in the afternoon as a 522 dam low
forms over Chalkyitsik. The low over Bethel will move over the
Middle Kuskokwim Valley Saturday morning at 515 dam, and over the
Central Interior Saturday afternoon as it fills rapidly to 522
dam. Troughing will persist over the Arctic through Saturday as a
519 dam low in the Central Arctic slides north. At 850
hpa...Temperatures range from around 0C near the Alaska Range and
over the Lower Yukon Delta to around -10C over the Arctic Coast
through Saturday then cool 3C to 5C over the next few days.

Surface...Low pressure is weakening as weak high pressure
develops from the Copper River Basin and Upper Tanana Valley to a
1002 mb high in the Western Brooks Range. A 994 mb low that was in
the Middle Yukon Valley is over the Seward Peninsula as it
weakens, and will merge with the low that moved into the Southwest
Bering Sea overnight and is now nearing the Pribilof Islands at
970 mb. The high pressure will be pushed east tonight as the low
move to Nunivak Island at 967 mb with troughing developing north
of the Alaska Range, and Brooks Range. A 988 mb low will develop
near Kodiak Island tonight and move into the Northern Gulf of
Alaska by Friday afternoon at 981 mb. A 984 mb low will develop in
the trough north of the Alaska Range near Denali tonight and
persist into Saturday morning before dissipating. The low near
Nunivak will move into the southwest mainland Friday night, then
southeast to Prince William Sound by Saturday afternoon as it
merges with the low that was in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. High
pressure will start pushing across the Arctic Plain Friday night
with a 1003 mb high near Umiat Saturday afternoon.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Offshore flow this evening will
turn to onshore flow overnight at 5 to 15 mph. Low clouds,
flurries, and areas of fog will continue to be the primary
concerns. For the Brooks Range expect some gusty north winds to 30
mph Saturday. Highs around 30, lows in the 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...South of the Seward Peninsula,
rain ending with more on the way as the next system moves into the
area tonight. A mix of precipitation Friday morning, changing to
rain by late morning. North of the Seward Peninsula looking for a
chance of snow tonight and Friday morning, then clearing. Winds
northeast to south at 5 to 25 mph with the strongest winds south
south of the Bering Strait. Temperatures remain on the warm side
with highs along the coast pushing into the mid and upper 40s
south of the Bering Strait, and into the upper 30s to the north.
Inland highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s tonight, then the lower 20s to lower 30s
Saturday and Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with rain, snow above 1500
feet, tapering off from the west through the night. Cloudy through
the weekend with some sprinkle Saturday afternoon. Winds variable
to 10 mph for most of the area through the weekend. Winds near
the Alaska Range passes picking up out of the south Friday to 20
gusting to 35 mph through Saturday morning. Temperatures south of
the White Mountains remaining on the warm side with lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s, and highs in the 40s through Sunday, while
to the north lows in the 20s and highs in the lower 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Decaying from over the
Interior and West Coast will dissipate Monday night. A strong low
moving near Yakutat on Tuesday will bring chance of heavy snow to
the southeast Interior while an inverted trough will develop over
the West Coast bringing snow showers to the coastal areas. High
pressure will persist over the Arctic with easterly flow bringing
stratus and patchy fog to the coastal areas. Wednesday snow will
spread into the Central Interior as front associated with the low
near Yakutat moves west.

&&

.Hydrology...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB OCT 21