Brisk Wind Advisory 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

644 
FZAK52 PAFG 311233
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010315-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will strengthen over the Chukchi Sea through Tue. A
strong low will move N into the southwest Bering Sea on Sun as 
its associated front moves north across the Bering Sea tonight and
Sun.

$$

PKZ200-010315-
Norton Sound-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-010315-
Dall Point to Wales-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-010315-
Kotzebue Sound-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

065 
FZAK52 PAFG 010002
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011530-
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will strengthen over the Chukchi Sea through Tue. A
strong low will continue to move N over the SW Bering Sea through
Tue as its associated front moves NW across the Bering Sea 
tonight and Mon.

$$

PKZ200-011530-
Norton Sound-
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-011530-
Dall Point to Wales-
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-011530-
Kotzebue Sound-
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-011530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold wintery pattern has setup over the Mainland as an arctic
trough digs and shifts east over the next few days, bringing one
of the coldest air masses of our rather warm winter. Light snow
will shift east with the upper level trough axis over the
Interior, with the record lowest January snowfall for Fairbanks
quite possible unless we record more than a half inch of snow
today. Cold wind chills and blowing snow remain over the West
Coast, but subside briefly later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A broad upper level ridge is nosing into the Bering Sea extending
from the North Pacific with a broad upper level trough stretching
from the Chukchi Sea to the northeast Pacific. Over the Mainland,
an embedded arctic trough is in place, with the 500 heights in the
vicinity of 507 dam. ONe of the colder air masses of the winter is
setting up over the area as 850 hpa temps are as low as -30C over
the Brooks Range and North Slope. This arctic trough is digging
southeast this morning, with light snow along this arctic
boundary over the Central Interior. A moderate northerly gradient
remains over the West Coast but is continuing to weaken.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the large
scale synoptic pattern through the weekend and into next week. The
biggest challenges through Monday will revolve around cloud cover
and associated low temps, as areas with clouds will not drop out
as far as they potentially can with such a cold air mass in place.
The other slight discrepancy is the onset timing of snow over
Saint Lawrence Island Sunday and Sunday night, with the GFS slower
than the NAM and Canadian. A blend is favored as the Bering warm
front lifts north.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow will move east from the Central interior to the Eastern
Interior today and tonight, exiting into the Yukon Territory by
Sunday morning. Snow amounts will generally be less than two
inches with less than one inch south of the White Mountains,
likely less than one half an inch for the Tanana Valley and
Fairbanks. This is going to put the area close to the record for
the lowest snowfall in January which is 0.7" (Fairbanks has
recorded 0.1" for the month thus far).

Sunday through Tuesday, bitterly cold arctic high pressure sets in
with the possibility of the coldest temps of this otherwise mostly
warm winter. As usual, clouds will dictate just how cold it gets,
with Monday morning and Tuesday morning looking like the coldest
days for much of the region. The potential for very cold temps is
high, though, as our temps aloft are the coldest of this winter
with 850 hpa temps getting into the -30C range. Winds increase on
Monday night and Tuesday with very cold chill values becoming a
concern, especially over the higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The blustery north gradient along the Bering Strait coast will
ease this morning, allowing for most blowing and drifting snow to
abate, thus winter weather advisories and the blizzard warning
will be canceled. However, another front will move toward Saint
Lawrence Island tonight and Sunday, bringing light snow and very
strong east winds, thus a blizzard watch will be issued for this
forecast package. Otherwise, cold wind chills will be the main
story Sunday through Tuesday as a very strong 80+ mb pressure
gradient forms and strong northeast winds increase. Wind chills
will push into the -50F range along parts of the coast where the
strongest winds will be. The next front will move into the LOwer
Yukon and Yukon Delta on Monday night, bringing accumulating snow
threats.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Bitterly cold temperatures will be the main story as a cold arctic
trough remains entrenched. Wind chills will also be quite cold
through the Brooks Range passes favored with north winds Light
snow will move across the eastern half of the North Slope and
Brooks Range today and tonight before exiting Sunday afternoon.
Easterly winds pick up Sunday night and Monday, bringing blowing
snow and bitterly cold wind chills.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Tuesday, a very deep
longwave arctic trough will be dominating the Interior as
bitterly old arctic air remains entrenched. Strong northeast winds
will continue over the Interior and along the West Coast, which
will still be contributing to cold temps and wind chills. A Bering
front will be crossing from the Lower Yukon/Delta towards the Ak
Range and Tanana Valley By Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will
spread snow over these areas as the upper level flow shifts to a
zonal pattern. Eventually the arctic trough weakens and moves
east, which will open the Mainland up to southwest flow from the
Bering Sea, which will likely result in warming temps and
increased chances for snow. Stay tuned as this looks like a
potentially active weather pattern...

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ217.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 21