Brisk Wind Advisory 265, NWS Fairbanks, AK

736 
FZAK52 PAFG 301326
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-310430-
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1015mb low pressure over Kotzebue Sound will weaken today. A 
strong low will move into the Southeast Bering Sea today and into
Bristol Bay on Fri. High pressure will build over the central 
Bering Sea Fri night.

$$

PKZ200-310430-
Norton Sound-
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-310430-
Dall Point to Wales-
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-310430-
Kotzebue Sound-
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt becoming N. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-310430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
426 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

338 
FZAK52 PAFG 302301
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-311530-
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low will move into the Southeast Bering Sea today and 
into Bristol Bay on Fri, then into the Gulf of Alaska Fri night. 
High pressure will build over the Bering Strait Sat night.

$$

PKZ200-311530-
Norton Sound-
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-311530-
Dall Point to Wales-
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-311530-
Kotzebue Sound-
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-311530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
201 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

929 
FZAK52 PAFG 311506
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010415-
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low will move into into Bristol Bay today, then into the
Gulf of Alaska Fri night. High pressure will build over the 
Bering Strait Sat night.

$$

PKZ200-010415-
Norton Sound-
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-010415-
Dall Point to Wales-
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010415-
Kotzebue Sound-
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
606 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

261 
FZAK52 PAFG 312235
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011530-
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will build over the Bering Strait Sat night with low
pressure persisting over the Gulf of Alaska.

$$

PKZ200-011530-
Norton Sound-
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-011530-
Dall Point to Wales-
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011530-
Kotzebue Sound-
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-011530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 5 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
648 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong storm over the Seward Peninsula with a cold front
stretching east to Denali will weaken today as the front moves
east. This is bringing gale force winds and near blizzard
conditions to the West Coast and Western North Slope that will
diminish this morning as the storm weekend, this is also bringing
snow and periods of freezing rain and strong winds to the
Southwest Interior this morning, and bringing another 3-6 inches
of snow to the Northern and Eastern Interior today. This front is
also causing light freezing rain south of the Tanana-Yukon Uplands
this morning. The Southern Interior is now seeing southwest winds
gusting 40-50 mph from Fairbanks west, that will spread east to
the ALCAN Border this morning. These winds, combined with 8 inches
of snow that have already fallen in many areas, will cause near
blizzard conditions. These winds will also blow down trees and
damage power lines. The winds are expected to start decreasing
this afternoon, and to decrease much more tonight.

A front remaining from Kotzebue to Eagle tonight will weaken into
Fri. This will cause periods of light snow along this front,
including over Fairbanks, into Fri am, with another few inches
possible.

Much colder air will move south over all of Northern Alaska on
Fri and Sat, and remain in place over the weekend. This will bring
drier conditions, and temperatures in the teens to 30s below by
the weekend.

Aloft....
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the
Northeast Pacific and Alaska and a strong trough over the NW
Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk. A series of very strong short waves
will make their way through the ridge over the next several days,
causing the ridge to retrograde and a long wave to form over
Alaska by the weekend. This means stormy and warm conditions over
Northern Alaska will continue into Fri, then drying and
significant cooling will occur over the weekend.

Surface...
A 1011 mb low 150 NM north of Demarcation Point will move to 80
NM north of Nuiqsut by 3am Thu and then weaken. This will bring
stratus, fog and flurries to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast.

A 996 mb low near Kotzebue will weaken to 1020 mb by 3am Thu. An
occluded front stretching from this low to Tanana with a warm
front Tanana to Northway and a cold front Tanana to Bethel. Heavy
snow is occuring along the warm front, changing to freezing rain
and snow southwest of the Warm front, and back to snow with the
cold front and along the occluded front. There are winds of 30g50
mph near the low, and along the cold front causing brief blizzard
conditions.

The occluded front will stretch from Kotzebue to Eagle by 3pm Wed
and then weaken in place through Fri. This will spread snow and
winds east to the Alcan Border this afternoon. Snow will start to
taper off tonight and Thu.

A strong low will move into the Southeast Bering Sea Thu, and
into Bristol Bay on Fri. This will bring easterly gales to the
Northeast Bering on Thu and Fri and a chance of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3pm Thu. After that time, the NAM drops a
short wave south along the West Coast that is deeper and further
west than the GFS/ECMF and Canadian. At this time favor the
GFS/ECMF aloft for Thu night and Fri.

With precip, models have similar solutions on areal coverage and
amounts through Fri.

At the surface at 06Z, all models verify too weak on the low over
the Seward Pen, but the GFS is the weakest being 5 mb too weak
with this feature. The NAM and Canadian seem show the strongest
winds with this feature for this morning. Will use a blend of the
NAM and Canadian for surface fields and winds for today, but bump
up winds 3-5 kt with the surface low and along the and following
the front moving east across the Interior today.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the GFS/NAM
and ECMF for temps, precip amounts and location. For winds will
use a blend of the NAM and Canadian for today but bump up winds
3-5 kt around the surface low and along the front moving east
across the Interior today, then use a blend of the NAM/GFS and
ECMF for tonight through Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong, gales force west winds over Norton Sound and the Yukon
Delta have caused sea levels to rise 4 to 6 feet above normal
this morning. It is likely that water has pushed on top of sea ice
along the Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast, and on top of the
ice 30 miles upstream along the Yukon river. We have not heard of
any flooding, but it is likely that some low lying areas along the
coast and the Yukon River have water in them this morning. Water
should recede today as the winds drop off, but could also freeze
in place today and tonight as much colder temperatures move in.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-
AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ218-AKZ224-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 21