Brisk Wind Advisory 229, NWS Fairbanks, AK

346 
FZAK52 PAFG 071500
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-080315-
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 973 mb low 90 NM northwest of Wainwright will weaken in place 
to 986 mb by 3pm Wed, then move to 60 NM west of Point Lay as a
990 mb low by 3pm Thu. A cold front that lies from Point Lay to 
the Yukon Delta will move inland today. A low in the Western
Bering Sea will move to the Central Bering Sea by 3am Wed as a 981
mb low and to 100 NM west of the Yukon Delta as a 984 mb low by
4am Thu. 

$$

PKZ200-080315-
Norton Sound-
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-080315-
Dall Point to Wales-
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-080315-
Kotzebue Sound-
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-080315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
600 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong low in the southern Chukchi Sea combined with a
strong high over the Yukon of Canada is causing strong south winds
across much of Western Alaska, and strong east winds across much
of Eastern Alaska. Blizzard conditions continue over NW Alaska
this morning, with heavy snow lingering in the Western and Central
Interior and Brooks Range through tonight.

Strong south winds over the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will taper
off tonight. These strong winds have brought chinook conditions
and dramatic warm up to the Interior and North Slope.

The front associated with the strong low is stalling from the
central Brooks Range to the McGrath area today through tonight
causing heavy snow to linger into early Tue in those areas. When
this front moves east on Tue is will spread snow east across the
Eastern Interior Tue with several inches there.

An Arctic cold front over the Bering will move along the West
Coast today, into the Western Interior tonight, and then spread to
the ALCAN Border on Tue. This will bring west winds and blowing
snow to the Tok Area on Tue and Tue night.

A low developing in the western Bering Sea tonight will move to
the Central Bering Sea as a as 982 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to
Western Norton Sound as a 985 mb low by 3pm Wed. This will bring
more snow and blowing snow to the West Coast and Western INterior
Tue night and Wed.

Aloft...
The long wave patter consists of a very deep long wave trough
over eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and a long wave ridge over
the Eastern Pacific and Ern Alaska and Western Canada. This
pattern will become progressive as a series of strong short wave
troughs make their way east over the Bering Sea and Alaska.

Surface...
A 958 MB low 80 NM west of Kivalina will move to Point Hope as a
964 mb low bu 3pm Mon, to 30 NM northwest of Wainwright as a 979
mb low by 3pm Tue, and to 100 NM north of Utqiagvik as a 985 mb
low by 3pm Wed. An occluded front from this low to POint Lay to
Bethel will move to Deadhorse to Mcgrath by 3pm Mon, remain
stationary into 3am Tue, then move east of the ALCAN Border on Tue
PM.

A 1033 mb high over the Yukon of Canada will weaken tonight.

An Arctic cold front over the Bering will move along the West
Coast today, into the Western Interior tonight, and then spread to
the ALCAN Border on Tue.

A low developing in the western Bering Sea tonight will move to
the Central Bering Sea as a as 982 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to
Western Norton Sound as a 985 mb low by 3pm Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar solutions
aloft through 3pm Mon. After that time the NAM maintains the low
aloft over NW AK deeper than the GFS/ECMF and Canadian models. We
normally would go with the consensus of models on this, but since
the surface low is deeper than any models indicate at 06Z, expect
the low aloft is also deeper than models indicate, so will go more
with the NAM keeping this low deeper. Also, the NAM and ECMF
bring a deeper short wave into Norton Sound Tue night and Wed than
the GFS and Canadian. Expect the short wave approaching Norton
Sound to be deeper per the NAM and ECMF for Tue night and Wed due
to the strong dynamics involved and the surface low interactions
with the ice edge which will keep that deeper. Will use a blend of
the NAM and ECMF to account for the stronger short wave in Norton
Sound.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and amounts
through 3pm Tue, but after that time the NAM and ECMF bring precip
into West Coast and Western Interior faster and further north than
the NAM solution for Tue night and Wed. At this time, it appear
as though the NAM and ECMF are better solutions for Tue night and
Wed.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 7-8 mb too weak on the
low near the Bering Strait, and about 6-8 mb too weak in the low
south of Dutch Harbor. The NAM moves the Bering Strait low more
slowly than the others models, and keeps it deeper than the GFS.
The NAM also keeps the low south of Dutch Harbor deeper as it
moves NE today and Tue. The NAM and ECMF are generally similar
with the low moving into Norton Sound on Wed. Generally prefer the
NAM pattern as the surface, but will bump up winds 3-5kt across NW
AK today through Tue to account for that low being deeper than
models indicate.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM and
ECMF for precip, temps, clouds, but will use the NAM for surface
features and winds, but bump winds up 3-5kt over NW AK today
through Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A storm surge of 4-7 feet is either occuring or will occur today
along the West Coast along with minor to moderate coast flooding.
Water flowed over the bank of the Yukon River at Kotlik about
midnight last night, and roads in Kotlik were flooded.

Ice could push onto beaches, and water could flow up rivers
causing minor flooding well inland. Flooding will taper off By
Tue. This could also cause sea level rises of 2-4 feet along the
Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik west late tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1006 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     HEAVY SNOW       43 NE EVANSVILLE        67.25N 150.18W
12/06/2021  M14.0 INCH       YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   MESONET

            14 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
            TODAY. FROM THE COLDFOOT SNOTEL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1011 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       52 NE EVANSVILLE        67.41N 150.11W
12/06/2021  M27.0 INCH       YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE WISEMAN COOP OBSERVER REPORTS 27 INCHES
            OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 PM SUNDAY AND 7 AM TODAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1140 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW GOLOVIN           64.54N 163.03W
12/05/2021                   NOME               AK   PUBLIC

            STRONG WINDS CAUSED ONE SIDE OF A STORAGE
            BUILDING TO BE PEALED BACK. PICTURES VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&