Brisk Wind Advisory 228, NWS Fairbanks, AK

589 
FZAK52 PAFG 062303
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-071530-
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 965 MB low near Cape Lisburne will move to 140 nm northwest of 
Wainright Tue at 978 mb, then remain in place through Thu, slowly 
weakening. A 980 mb low will move to the N Bering Sea Tue evening,
then move to the Yukon Delta Wed afternoon at 987 mb before moving
inland.

$$

PKZ200-071530-
Norton Sound-
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-071530-
Dall Point to Wales-
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-071530-
Kotzebue Sound-
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-071530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
203 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
310 PM AKST Sun Dec 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong storm continues to push inland over the West Coast,
Western Interior and Western Brooks Range this afternoon and will
continue to push north and east into the Central Interior and
Central Brooks Range. Widespread severe blizzard conditions with
many locations experiencing wind gusts over 70 mph and zero
visibility are beginning to improve this evening over the West
Coast, however heavy snow and near blizzard conditions have now
pushed into much of the Western Interior and Western Brooks Range.
High winds have developed through the Alaska Range Passes with
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph expected through Monday Morning.
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are in effect for much of
the West Coast both south and north of the Bering Strait with the
highest water levels expected tonight and on Monday as the poison
tail of this very strong storm pushes north and east onto the
West Coast and through the Bering Strait tonight. Clouds and
relatively warm chinook southerly winds over the Central and
Eastern Alaska Range have dramatically raised temperatures over
the Central and Eastern Interior, up from the 30s, 40s' and 50's
below into the single digits and teens below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The long wave patter consists of a very deep negatively tilted
long wave trough over eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and a long
wave ridge over the Eastern Pacific and Ern Alaska and Western
Canada. This pattern will become progressive as a series of strong
short wave troughs continue to make their way east over the
Bering Sea and Alaska into the middle of the week. Long range
models continue to indicate a push of very cold temperatures at
850 mb moving south and east from Siberia by the end of next week.

Surface...
A 954 MB low 200 NM west of Gambell will continue to lumbar slowly
north and east passing through the Bering Strait as a 968 mb low
Monday morning and near Point Hope as a 977 mb low by Monday
afternoon. A front associated with this low has pushed eastward
into the Western Interior this afternoon and will continue to push
northeast and weaken as it pushes into the Central Interior and
Central Brooks Range tonight on Monday. A 1044 mb high pressure
system over the Yukon will continue to weaken slowly and drift to
the east tonight and Monday.

Models...
The 05/12z model suite initialized well against the surface
analysis as well as the upper level observations and verified well
against the 18z surface analysis. Models show similar
precipitation fields and amounts through Monday with only minor
differences on QPF amounts and locations. Model spread remains
minimal in the short and mid range. Large spread enters the model
suite by Thursday as a powerful storm pushes north and east into
the Central Aleutians with significant differences emerging on
track, and strength of the storm.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Widespread severe blizzard conditions over much of the West Coast
and Western Brooks Range will slowly diminish overnight and into
Monday. Many locations along the West Coast experienced wind gusts
in excess of 70 mph and zero visibility for several hours last
night and today. Predominate conditions will slowly improve this
evening however the poison tail of this strong storm will push on
shore with intense snow squalls and periods of low visibility
heavy snow and high winds through the night. Heavy snow and low
visibilities in blowing snow will continue tonight in the Western
Interior and Western Brooks Range where Winter Storm Warnings
continue.

A storm surge of 4-7 feet is expected tonight and Monday along
the West Coast along with minor to moderate coast flooding is
expected through Monday. Ice could push onto beaches, and water
could flow up rivers causing minor flooding well inland. Flooding
will begin this evening along Western Capes and spread into Norton
Sound tonight, and into and the southern Chukchi Sea tonight and
Kotzebue Sound on Monday. Flooding will taper off By Tue. This
could also cause sea level rises of 2-4 feet along the Arctic
Coast from Utqiagvik west.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High winds developed in the Alaska Range Passes with wind gusts in
excess of 70 mph reported as a very strong pressure gradient
developed between the 950 mb low in the Bering Sea and a 1044 mb
high pressure over the Yukon. Strong winds also developed near
Delta Junction where a Wind Advisory remain in effect into Monday
morning. The strong winds in the Alaska Range as also expected to
continue into Monday morning. Very low wind chill values continue
near Eagle as the pressure gradient mentioned above aligns with
the Yukon River Valley and combined with very cold temperatures
up valley are producing gusty down valley winds. A Wind Chill
Advisory remain in effect this evening for areas near Eagle. s
drain down the down the Yukon River. The low wind chill values
will improve this evening as clouds moving into the area increase
temperatures. Clouds moving into the Central Interior as well as
warming chinook winds off of the Alaska Range have dramatically
warmed the Central Interior from the 30s and 40s below into the
single digits and teens below. Temperatures over the Eastern
Interior will warm through the night as clouds push into the area.
Heavy snow is expected north and west of Tanana to Bettles to
Atigun Pass where Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect. Much lighter snowfall accumulations are
expected south and east of these areas Monday night and Tuesday
with Fairbanks expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow beginning late
Monday night and into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Western Arctic
Slope where light snow and strong winds continue to produce low
visibilities and are expected to produce low visibilities into
Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect for the
Northeastern Brooks Range and adjacent plains as the pressure
gradient increases in these areas tonight and Monday and produces
low visibilities in snow and blowing snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A storm surge of 4-7 feet is expected tonight and Monday along
the West Coast along with minor to moderate coast flooding is
expected through Monday. Ice could push onto beaches, and water
could flow up rivers causing minor flooding well inland. Flooding
will begin this evening along Western Capes and spread into Norton
Sound tonight, and into and the southern Chukchi Sea tonight and
Kotzebue Sound on Monday. Flooding will taper off By Tue. This
could also cause sea level rises of 2-4 feet along the Arctic
Coast from Utqiagvik west.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ224.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ221-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC DEC 21