Brisk Wind Advisory 199, NWS Fairbanks, AK

203 
FZAK51 PAFG 152204
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-161430-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure over the McKenzie Delta will continue to shift east
tonight. A trough of low pressure will move from Cape Lisburne 
today to Prudhoe Bay Fri evening. Another trough of low pressure 
will take the same track Sat.

$$

PKZ225-161430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Haze.
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Haze.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-161430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Haze and fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Haze.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-161430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-161430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-161430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
204 PM AKDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
108 PM AKDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
Northwest, Central, and Eastern Interior this evening with gusty
winds to 20 mph. Cloudy conditions will prevail from the Seward
Peninsula south as onshore flow continues. Onshore flow in the
Arctic as well with low clouds prevailing along with some areas of
fog. Flow will turn from the east tonight in the Arctic so some
clearing inland and on the Eastern Arctic Coast will occur. A
front moving off the Siberian Coast will bring an increased chance
of Thunderstorms to the Northwest Arctic Coast this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term the 14/12Z solutions are in good agreement,
but run to run the solutions have been leaning to more stable
conditions in the Interior this evening. Solutions diverge quite a
bit on shower activity in the Interior tonight as well with the
NAM being the outlier, and currently looking to be the solution to
lean toward. 14/12Z surface solutions initialized well against
the 14/15Z and 14/18Z local analysis as far as major features
including the frontal position. For the extended periods the
solution have a pretty good handle on the ridging building over
the state through the weekend and agree on the development of
southwest flow over the state early next week. Convective indicies
have decreased quite a bit since yesterday, but still provide
potential for convection through the evening and overnight along
the front from the Eastern Interior to the Chukchi Sea and
Northwest Arctic Coast. Will be leaning on the current forecast
database quite a bit with a a nudge to the NAM very short term,
then a nudge to a blend of the solutions for days 2 to 4. In
particular will be nudging the Relative Humidity down in the
Central and Eastern Interior for Saturday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A strong shortwave extends southwest over
the Central and Eastern Interior from a 515 dam low northeast of
Banks Island. A 576 dam high has moved over the Bering Strait with
an axis extending north over 170W and another extending east of
the Alaska Range. A 555 dam low south of the Gulf of Alaska is
moving southeast, and a 564 dam low in the Central Bering Sea near
the Dateline will move northeast and merge with a 553 dam low
moving over the Western Bering Sea tonight. A strong shortwave is
moving over the top of the ridging to the west and by Thursday
morning it will be over 170W as the ridge axis moves over 160W as
the high moves over Emmonak at 576 dam. The trough over the
Interior will move southeast out of the area, and the low in the
Northeast Pacific will move southeast. Thursday night the high
will be over Kotlik at 577 dam as ridging build north and east
over the state, while a shortwave associated with the low in the
Canadian Archipelago will move south over the Brooks Range and
Central and Eastern Interior Thursday night. The trough in the
Arctic will move over the Beaufort Sea as it weakens Thursday
night. By Friday morning the high will be over the Kuskokwim Delta
at 578 dam with ridging extending north over 150W, and east over
the Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. At 850 hpa...Warmest
temperatures are between the ranges and over the Chukchi Sea with
temperatures between +9C and +15C. Temperatures will cool below
+10C over the Eastern Interior tonight through Thursday. Warming
trend for the Central and Eastern Interior starts Friday, while
temperatures will cool to the west.

Surface...High pressure over the Arctic with a 1021 mb high 50 nm
north of Utqiagvik this afternoon. Front moving southeast across
the interior lies from the Top of the World Highway crossing at
the Border to the Fairbanks area to Ambler. High pressure has
pushed north over Bristol Bay as a 1009 mb low moved to 400 nm
south of Prince William Sound. Thursday morning the high pressure
in the Arctic will extend from a 1021 mb high just north of
Prudhoe Bay to a 1021 mb high near Fort McPherson NWT. The front
will lie from the AlCan Border crossing to just south of Fairbanks
to Ambler to a 1006 mb low in the northwestern Chukchi Sea. High
pressure over Bristol Bay will push north to the southern Chuckchi
Sea as a 1024 mb high moves into Bristol Bay. The low south of
Prince William Sound will move to 400 nm south of Cordova. By
Thursday afternoon the High pressure over the Arctic will shift
east over the Eastern Arctic an Beaufort Sea with a 1020 mb high
50 nm north of Demarcation Point. The front across the state will
lie from the AlCan Border crossing to Bettles to a 1010 mb low in
the western Arctic Plain to a 1005 mb low 200 nm northeast of
Point Lay. High pressure will build over the state from the
southeast Thursday night and Friday as the weather front across
the state is pushed northeast, while another front will move to
the Northwest Arctic Coast, then across the Arctic Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mixed bag of low clouds on the
coast, clearing in the Plains and Brooks Range, fog along the
coast, Slight chance of Thunderstorms on the Northwest Coast this
evening, winds swinging from the north around to the east, and
warmer temperatures. Strong front moving off the Siberian Coast
will once again bring a chance of thunderstorms to the Chukchi Sea
and Northwest Arctic Coast this evening. Temperatures will remain
warm with highs in the 50s for most coastal areas, and 60s and
70s as you move into the Plains and the Brooks Range. Winds 5 to
20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Kotzebue Sound region will see
a mix of clouds with a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening
and overnight, while the Seward Peninsula south will have low
clouds along the coast with onshore flow, with mostly clear and
dry conditions east of the Nulato Hills. St Lawrence Island will
remain mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Smoke from the
fires in Siberia is moving into the West Coast and may impact
visibility at times. Cloudy conditions along the coast will keep
temperatures down a bit with highs in the 40s and 50s, while
inland temperatures be in the 60s and 70s through Friday.
Southwest to west winds will prevail at 5 to 20 mph in the coastal
areas with light and variable winds inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with showers and isolated
thunderstorms, then clearing on Thursday after some morning
showers. Isolated thunderstorms mainly northeast of Livengood
Thursday. Rainfall generally less than 0.10 inch through Thursday
afternoon. Winds west gusting to 20 mph becoming light and
variable overnight, then west to 10 mph Thursday. Temperatures a
bit cooler than the last few days with highs in the 70s, and lows
in the 50s tonight and Thursday, then warming back up for the
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft will keep
pleasant conditions over the southern Interior as a change of
pattern takes shape with a strong trough pushing over the top of
the ridge. Warm and dry over the state will trend to cloudy and
cooler as a front moves east across the Arctic and southwest flow
develops as the ridging is pushed south and east by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated
thunderstorms and showers tonight in the Northwest, Central, and
Eastern Interior along the stalled weather front. Clearing as the
front moves back to the northeast Thursday with some isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of Livengood. Temperatures
will be in the 60s and 70s. Minimum Relative Humidity values range
from the 20s in the Upper Yukon Flats to the 40s in the Middle
Yukon Valley, and 50s in the Upper Tanana Valley. Drier conditions
as we move into the weekend with values falling into the 20s and
30s for most areas east of Tanana. Overnight Relative Humidity
recovery will be good through Friday. Gusty west winds to 20 mph
this evening, then variable 5 to 10 mph during the day with light
drainage winds to 5 mph at night.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues at this time. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JUL 21