Winter Weather Advisory 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

374 
WWAK42 PAFC 291129
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

AKZ152-300100-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.211030T0600Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
329 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT SUNDAY FROM SLEETMUTE WEST...

* WHAT...Snow and freezing rain expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches and ice accumulations up to 
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Mainly from Sleetmute west.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Expect difficult travel conditions and reduced 
  visibilities. White out conditions possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-300100-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.211030T0000Z-211031T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
329 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Snow, blowing snow, and freezing rain expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations up 
  to two tenths of an inch. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 
  as high 45 mph.

* WHERE...Mainly from Dillingham north and west.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Expect difficult travel conditions as well as 
  reduced visibilities to one half mile due to falling and 
  blowing snow. White out conditions possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

997 
WWAK42 PAFC 300023
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

AKZ155-301330-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.211030T1600Z-211031T0400Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
423 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 6 inches. 

* WHERE...Inland Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may be reduced to one half mile
  in blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ152-301330-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.211030T0600Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
423 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 14 inches and ice accumulations between one and two tenths
  of an inch with locally higher amounts in the Kilbuck and 
  Buckstock Mountains.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages are likely due to the ice. Travel 
  could be extremely hazardous. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-301330-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
423 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
SUNDAY NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Snow, blowing snow, and freezing rain expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of up to 14 inches and ice accumulations of 
  one to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Mainly north and west of Dillingham.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could reduce visibility to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

853 
WWAK42 PAFC 301122
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

AKZ152-310030-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
322 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 14 inches and ice accumulations between one and two tenths
  of an inch with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages are possible due to the ice. Travel 
  could be extremely hazardous. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ155-310030-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.211030T1600Z-211031T0400Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
322 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Inland Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-310030-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
322 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR DILLINGHAM AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Snow, blowing snow, and freezing rain expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of up to 14 inches and ice accumulations of 
  one to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north and west.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could reduce visibility to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

491 
WWAK42 PAFC 302350
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

AKZ155-310600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
350 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Inland Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ152-311400-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
350 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT
SUNDAY WEST OF SLEETMUTE...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 8
  to 14 inches and ice accumulations of less than one tenth of an
  inch.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley west of Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-311200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
350 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR DILLINGHAM AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to 4 inches and ice accumulations around a trace. Winds gusting
  as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north and west.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

413 
WWAK42 PAFC 310549
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
949 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

AKZ155-310900-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T0900Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
949 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY
INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  up to 2 inches. North winds up to 25 mph.

* WHERE...Inland Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ152-311300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
949 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT
SUNDAY WEST OF SLEETMUTE...

* WHAT...Snow with additional accumulations of 6 to 9 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley west of Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A brief period of freezing rain is possible
  from Crooked Creek to Sleetmute early Sunday morning. This will
  quickly transition to snow as cold air moves east through Sunday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ161-311200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1200Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
949 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
SUNDAY NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected
  with north winds up to 20 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north and west.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be hazardous. Areas of blowing snow are
  possible north of Dillingham.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition back to snow after
  midnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

813 
WWAK42 PAFC 310818
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

AKZ155-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to 2 inches. North winds up to 25 mph.

* WHERE...Inland Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
1218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches 
  expected with north winds up to 20 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north and west.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be hazardous. Areas of blowing snow are 
  possible north of Dillingham.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ152-311800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
1218 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT
THIS MORNING WEST OF SLEETMUTE...

* WHAT...Snow with additional accumulations of 3 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley west of Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

875 
WWAK42 PAFC 311500
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
700 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

AKZ155-311600-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
700 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE INLAND KUSKOKWIM 
DELTA...

The steadiest snow is tapering off and shifting east of the area.

$$

AKZ161-311600-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
700 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH AND 
WEST...

While snow showers may continue into the day today, the steadiest
snow has ended. Snowfall rates meeting advisory criteria are no
longer anticipated.

$$

AKZ152-311800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
700 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT
THIS MORNING WEST OF SLEETMUTE...

* WHAT...Snow with additional accumulations of 3 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley west of Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

706 
WWAK42 PAFC 311759
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
959 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

AKZ152-311900-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-211031T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
959 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS OF 10 AM AKDT THIS 
MORNING WEST OF SLEETMUTE...

Snowfall has tapered off below advisory criteria.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Latest infrared satellite imagery reveals an upper low persisting
over the Bering this morning and centered just east of the
Pribilofs. An occluded front extends eastward from the low into
interior Alaska and meets a triple point low currently over the
Kenai Peninsula. Light snow is falling across the Kuskokwim Delta
in the vicinity or just southeast of Bethel along the front. Over
the triple point low cloud cover is expanding in coverage with
additional light snow occurring from Homer to Iliamna. A cold air
mass lingers over much of Southwest with 850 mb temperatures
ranging from -8 to -10 degrees Celsius while Southcentral 850 mb
temperatures are closer to -6 degrees Celsius currently. A warm
front is lifting northward toward Prince William Sound with
isolated to scattered showers. Behind the warm front is a cold
front which extends southward into the southern gulf. The next big
weather maker is deepening in strength to the south of Amchitka
Island. It is producing overcast skies and lowered ceilings across
the Aleutians this morning. As this low continues to strengthen
and shift east it will likely bring a wintry mix to parts of
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta Friday into the weekend,
as well as heavy rains and mountain snow to the Kenai Peninsula,
and high winds across the Turnagain Arm, including Portage Pass
and the town of Whittier.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are handling synoptic features well this morning over
the Bering and over the Gulf of Alaska. Good model agreement
continues and depicts a low over the Bering and a low over the
Gulf of Alaska gradually merging over interior Alaska through 24
hours. Beyond 24 hours models continue to show good agreement with
a third low undergoing significant amplification south of the
Aleutians on Friday and presenting an atmospheric river into the
Kenai Peninsula for a 12 to 24 hour period Friday night into
Saturday. Models diverge beyond 48 hours but do suggest southerly
flow over the Kenai Peninsula will become southeast and then
easterly as an amplified low and its trough axis pivot
counterclockwise Saturday morning. The evolution of this low over
the next couple of days will ultimately determine just how much
rain areas like Seward receive into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will persist with VFR conditions early this
morning lowering to MVFR as light snow moves across the terminal.
The light snow is expected to linger through around noon Thursday
before tapering off. VFR ceilings and light southerly winds are
expected through Thursday afternoon and evening; however, ceilings
should remain at or below 5,000 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Sunday Morning)...

A weak shortwave and associated surface low near Homer this
morning will lift northeast today. As it does, expect light snow
from Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl east toward Prince William
Sound. The snow will be light, with around an inch expected for
places like Anchorage and Kenai. A couple of inches are possible
for higher elevations such as Turnagain and Thompson Passes and
across the Portage Valley. As the shortwave lifts to the interior
Friday, weather across Southcentral will turn relatively quiet,
with the exception of some lingering snow showers across the
mountains.

The pattern then turns more amplified and more active beginning
late Friday, continuing through the weekend. A deepening upper-
level trough will dive well south of the AKPen Friday morning as
the upper-level jet becomes meridional. Ahead of the trough, deep
southerly flow will transport tropical moisture northward into
Southcentral in the form of an atmospheric river. A colder airmass
in place ahead of the frontal system lifting north will allow for
some snow initially, especially away from the coast and at
elevation. However, as the warmer air advects from the south and
the airmass across coastal Southcentral moderates, snow levels
will quickly climb, reaching over 3,000 feet by Saturday morning.

The aforementioned frontal system will reach Kodiak Island first,
with rain and gusty southerly winds developing by Friday morning.
The atmospheric river will then migrate to the Kenai Peninsula by
Fri afternoon, where copious moisture will wring out over the
mountains. Seward could see 2 to 4 inches of rain by late Saturday
with QPF amounts nearly doubled in the surrounding mountains.
While the forecasted winds aloft have shifted from due south to
southeasterly, allowing for slightly less rainfall amounts in
Seward, the forecasted 2 to 4 inches will fall in a short enough
period of time to bring the potential for localized flooding.
Similar rainfall totals are possible in Kodiak City through Sunday
as the AR realigns at Kodiak Island by Sunday.

Farther north, the primary weather threat will be high winds, both
at elevation and trough favored gaps. As the leading front moves
toward the Southcentral coast, the synoptic winds will turn east-
southeasterly, aligning with gaps such as Turnagain Arm. Given the
strength of this system, gusts above hurricane force are likely
to develop, especially along Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, and
the higher elevations of the Anchorage Hillside. A High Wind
Watches remains in effect for these locations from Friday evening
through Sunday morning. Other threats include the potential for
significant amounts of snow across the western Susitna Valley,
some snowfall and gusty winds across the Copper River Basin, and
temperatures warming well into the 40s by Saturday. Stay tuned for
additional products and updated forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Today
through Saturday morning)...

A weak low pressure system will move across the area today with a
few lingering areas of very light snow and snow showers mainly
over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley with little or no snow
accumulations expected. This evening through early Friday the area
will see a brief break in the weather with mostly clear skies and
cold temperatures with lows Friday morning in the teens and low
20s across the area. However, by Friday afternoon a strong low
pressure system develops south of the AKPEN. This will draw
moisture rapidly across the area with a frontal system developing
across Bristol Bay. Strong upper level forcing is expected as a
favorable area of the upper level jet stream moves across the area
creating lift. This will allow snow to develop across the area
Friday afternoon through Saturday. Warm air will develop from
downsloping winds off the western Alaskan Range causing the snow
to change to a mix of freezing rain and rain Friday night into
Saturday morning across Bristol Bay. It will change over to rain
sometime Friday night around King Salmon and Iliamna while
Dillingham and north towards New Stuyahok and Koliganek the snow
will change to freezing rain and/or rain by Saturday morning
through around midday Saturday. Currently 4 to 8 inches of snow is
likely from Dillingham north to Koliganek. While King Salmon and
Iliamna will see 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain.
Areas that get freezing rain should be short lived and relatively
light in nature with minimal impacts. Expect 6 to 10 inches of
snow across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning Friday night and
possibly changing over to rain and/or freezing rain by Saturday
afternoon or evening. Any freezing rain in this area should be
short lived with only minor accumulations with minimal impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3...Tonight
through Fri afternoon)...

A gale force low is currently moving just south of the western
Aleutians. This low will move across the Aleutian chain today with
gale force winds from the Island and southward with areas of
moderate rain. The rest of the Bering will be relatively quiet
today with cool northerly flow with a few rain and snow showers
with small craft winds or less. By Friday morning storm force
winds will develop south of the AKPEN as the low deepens south of
the AKPEN on Friday. This will bring rain to the southern AKPEN
and rain and snow to northern parts of the AKPEN with a couple of
inches of snow accumulations Friday and Saturday. Storm force
winds will continue through Friday night south of the AKPEN.
Otherwise the central and western Bering and Aleutians will see
relatively quiet weather with light winds Friday afternoon though
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering/Aleutians...
Strong gales and seas up to 15 ft over eastern Bering will
continue until Sat night. The next emerging low over the southern
Bering Sun afternoon could potentially elevate seas and winds to
gales near Pribilof Islands Sun night into early Mon morning.
Elsewhere, moderate seas and small crafts will continue
sporadically across the forecast area. For this reason, forecast
confidence is above average.

Gulf of Alaska...
A nearly stationary complex North Pacific low and its associated
front are responsible for persistent gales and long period swells
of 20 to 25 ft across the Gulf through at least early Sun morning.
As seas and winds diminish Sun morning, the potential for gales to
return is favorable especially around the Barren Islands and east
of Kodiak Island in response to the next North Pacific low
trekking toward the Gulf Sun afternoon. The latter system will
again bring another strong episode of long period swells up to 22
ft on Monday especially over the central Gulf. For other parts of
the Gulf during most of the forecast period, small craft
conditions will continue into early next week. Overall, forecast
confidence remains above average.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

GFS and ECM differ quite a bit on the placement of the expected
lows transiting through the Bering and Gulf of Alaska. However,
solutions agreed to highlight strong winds and potentially heavy
rain across the Gulf and Prince William Sound, and over the
Aleutian Chain and Southwest Coast. Clearly, a firm ridge over the
State will maintain a quiet forecast for mostly inland portions of
Southcentral and Southwest. A frontal system over the eastern Gulf
will bring strong winds and rain across Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula starting Mon afternoon until late Mon
night. Meanwhile, strong winds and rain from a North Pacific low
will enter the central Aleutians beginning Mon afternoon. A
developing front associated with the latter system will then shift
through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast by early Tue
morning, leading to increased rain and stronger winds along the
gaps and passes. Both systems over the Bering and Gulf will bring
a lot of tropical moisture and warm temperatures days ahead.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 101 125.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155
	     Gale Warning 120 130-132 136-138 150 160 165 170-174 176
					  177 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO