Winter Weather Advisory 41, NWS Anchorage, AK

627 
WWAK42 PAFC 091808
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1008 AM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

AKZ195-091915-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210409T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
1008 AM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Weather has improved slightly to above blizzard criteria. However,
low visibility from wind and snow with blowing snow still exist. 
Continue to use caution if needing to go outside. Conditions
should continue to improve over the next few hours.

$$

AKZ155-100715-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0013.210410T0000Z-210410T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1008 AM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the worst conditions are expected 
  near the coast, Bethel could see up to 4 inches of snow 
  through Saturday morning. Winds will diminish farther inland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-100715-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0041.210410T0300Z-210410T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
1008 AM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph. Visibilities reduced to one half mile.

* WHERE...North and west of Dillingham.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest winds and snow totals are 
  expected between Togiak and Goodnews Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

553 
WWAK42 PAFC 092358
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

AKZ155-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0013.210410T0000Z-210410T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
358 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Visibilities 
  reduced to one quarter mile.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...Until to 7 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the worst conditions are expected
  near the coast, Bethel could see up to 4 inches of snow through
  Saturday morning. Winds will be lower farther inland. Stronger
  winds near the coast will diminish by Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0041.210410T0300Z-210410T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
358 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph. Visibilities reduced to one half mile.

* WHERE...North and west of Dillingham.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest winds and snow totals are 
  expected between Togiak and Goodnews Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

155 
WWAK42 PAFC 101123
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

AKZ155-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210410T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
323 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph. Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the worst conditions are expected
  near the coast, Bethel could see an additional 2 inches of snow
  this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-210410T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
323 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occuring. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibilities
  reduced to one half mile.

* WHERE...North and west of Dillingham.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest winds and snow totals are 
  expected between Togiak and Goodnews Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

995 
WWAK42 PAFC 101452
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
652 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

AKZ161-101600-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-210410T1500Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
652 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING
NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM...

While light snow continues across the area, conditions should
steadily improve for the rest of the morning as the snow moves off
to the east and ends.

$$

AKZ155-102000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210410T2000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
652 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph. Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...Until noon AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow
  likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low pressure system is rapidly moving Southeast across
Southcentral AK, with the low center currently located in the
Northern Gulf of Alaska. A weak deformation zone and well defined
clearing line can be seen on satellite working its way west to
east across the Southcentral Mainland. This deformation band
dropped about 2 inches of snow in the Anchorage area last night
into this morning. Satellite imagery capturing cumulus streamers
across Bristol Bay, the AKPen and Cook Inlet show cold air
advancing south through the state. Surface observations show winds
associated with the cold air strengthening and marching south as
well. In the Bering, the next front is moving into the Western
Aleutians and is also well depicted on satellite.

All of this is being supported in the upper levels by a 500MB
closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. A tight pressure gradient
behind this low and strong northerly flow extending south from
the Arctic (almost at the North Pole) is providing the setup for
this cold air push at the surface. In the Bering, an upper level
low moving out of the North Pacific towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula is providing support for the frontal system moving into
the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well. Overall, they are capturing
the low that moved from Southwest AK into the Gulf well. Models
are consistent in highlighting strong winds and cold temperatures
across Southcentral AK, keeping confidence high with respect to
the cold and windy weather that is inbound. One area they did not
capture well is snow amounts across Southcentral last night into
this morning, as we got more than expected. However, this does not
affect model performance going forward. Models are also consistent
across Southwest Alaska and the Bering, bringing high confidence
to the forecast for those regions as well.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong northerly winds are anticipated to impact the
airfield tonight. Winds currently in place will increase in
strength this afternoon, peaking late this evening through about
midnight. Winds will gradually decrease through the end of the TAF
period tomorrow, but gusts to at least 20 kts will continue until
tomorrow evening. Winds will finally calm tomorrow night.
Ceilings and visibility will remain VFR, with the cold air keeping
skies clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

The well-advertised storm causing winds and record setting cold
remains on track this afternoon. Many of the details described in
previous discussions remain in the forecast, and will not be
repeated here. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for Kodiak,
where as of 4pm the peak wind has already reached 61 mph, for
Seward, where the peak wind has reached 47 mph, and for Valdez and
Thompson Pass where gusts have reached 58 mph so far. The peak
winds in all of these areas are not expected until later tonight.
Gusts in Anchorage have already reached 35 mph, with peak winds
later tonight expected as well.

The main change this afternoon is the issuance of Wind Chill
Advisories up in Broad Pass for tonight for wind chills to 40
below, for the Paxson area along the Richardson Highway tonight
for wind chills to 50 below, and for much of the Copper River
Basin from Glennallen north Friday night for wind chills to 40
below. Tonight's primary player will be the winds, while tomorrow
night, the winds will be diminishing allowing the temperatures to
plummet. Thus, expect the lowest wind chills tonight with the core
of the coldest air. In the gaps of Isabel Pass and along the Tok
Cutoff, the winds will still be elevated through Friday evening,
resulting in repeat wind chills to 40 below.

Record setting cold is possible tonight, and more likely Friday
night. Tonight, the core of the coldest air will pass through
Southcentral, but the winds will counter the cold somewhat. Thus,
the confidence for record cold tonight is low. On Friday night,
temperatures aloft will already begin warming, but due to clear
skies, a record-setting deep snowpack in Anchorage for this late
into April, and the diminishing winds, radiational cooling will
be in overdrive. The main areas threatening new record lows
include Anchorage, Glennallen, Kenai, and Cordova.

On Saturday, Southcentral will begin the process of warming back
towards more normal temperatures, with highs warming around 5
degrees from Friday. High clouds will be moving in after sunrise
Saturday morning, then lower and thicken through the day. This is
ahead of a front that will rapidly fall apart as it approaches the
area. A rain/snow mix is possible in Kodiak ahead of this front
Saturday morning, but significant accumulations are not expected.
A second front/low moves into Southcentral from the south on
Sunday. This will not only bring much warmer temperatures, but
will return coastal rain and mountain snow to the Kenai Mountains
on Sunday. The southeasterly winds will result in drying of the
precipitation over Anchorage, the western Kenai, and the Mat-Su.
Thus, precipitation chances through Sunday have been reduced
significantly this afternoon. By Monday, some light precipitation
may make it into those aforementioned areas, but by then, above-
freezing temperatures cast some question as to what form that will
take.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Today through Saturday)...

A very cold, Arctic airmass has now spread across much of the
Southwest with single digit to below zero temperatures and clear
skies now over much of the region. Northwest winds are continuing
to cause localized areas of blowing snow, but significant
visibility restrictions have predominantly improved compared to
early this morning for parts of interior Bristol Bay and the Y-K
Delta. Very cold temperatures will be dipping down as low as -15
to -20 degrees for some interior locations tonight, with hazardous
wind chills as low as -30 possible with the coldest temperatures
and where light north winds persist.

Attention then quickly shifts to another front moving
onshore Friday afternoon into Saturday along the Southwest coast
that will bring another prolonged round of falling snow from
Bristol Bay to the Y-K Delta. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for expected blowing snow along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
where winds with the front gusting to 35 mph will be strongest.
Winds will die off as the front quickly degrades on Saturday.
However, light falling snow could continue across parts of the Y-K
Delta and north of Bristol Bay as additional waves eject into the
Southwest from an upper level low over the Bering through at
least Saturday evening. As temperatures warm back into the 30s
with the persistent southwest flow, this long-duration light
snowfall may begin to mix with rain at lower elevations by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Saturday)...

Northwest gap winds out of bays and passes along the AKPen will
generally be on the downward slide through this evening into
tonight, subsiding to gales or lower by early Friday. A gale
force front tracking across the Bering will bring blizzard
conditions to the Pribilof Islands from tonight into Saturday
morning. Temperatures will quickly warm with the frontal passage,
changing precipitation rapidly over to all snow by late Saturday
morning. Additionally, strong southeast winds ahead of the front
will track along the Alaska Peninsula, leading to freezing spray
until temperatures warm behind the front by Friday night.
Meanwhile, a large low center will drift into the western Bering,
bringing another round of southwest gales and rain/snow across the
Western Aleutians on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Generally southerly winds over the Gulf of Alaska,
with a low pressure system setting up a barrier jet with gale
force winds along the coast of of the Gulf of Alaska.

Bering Sea: A large area of low pressure will remain over the
Bering sea with gale force winds expected on Sunday. This will
dissipate through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Long term guidance is at least in fair agreement to start next
week. Therefore, moderate confidence in the overall picture but
there is not enough agreement on specific features to hone a solid
forecast yet. Generally, we can say that long wave troughing will
be present over the Bering Sea, meaning generally inclement
weather for that region and Southwest AK. Southcentral AK will be
on the leading edge of this trough, with shortwave troughs moving
through the flow over Southcentral. So, inclement weather can also
be expected, with some type of defined weather feature moving
through the region to start the week. As far as temperatures go,
with the center of the trough being park over the Bering, expect
cooler temperatures for that area and the Western Aleutians. Warming
can be expected for mainland AK with general southerly flow.

Moving through the week, this pattern is slow to move with the
trough slowly shifting east. This means weather will be slow to
change and we can expect unsettled weather for most locations with
cooler temperatures over the Bering and warmer temperatures over
Mainland AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141 145 155 195.
		 High Wind Warning 125 131 171.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 126 128 137 139 140.
		 Storm 120 121 127 129 132.
		 Hurricane Force Wind 130 131 138.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 119-132 137-141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/BB