Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 152, NWS Anchorage, AK

356 
FZAK51 PAFC 100005
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101315-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak front reaches the southwest Gulf Saturday morning and sets up
on the north Gulf coast Sun morning. The next front approaches the 
southwest Gulf Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ119-101315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 55 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101315-
Resurrection Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101315-
Prince William Sound-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101315-
Port Valdez-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101315-
Valdez Narrows-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101315-
Valdez Arm-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101315-
Passage Canal-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101315-
Barren Islands East-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt
becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101315-
Chiniak Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101315-
Marmot Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101315-
Shelikof Strait-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building
to 6 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101315-
Kachemak Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING Tonight...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low pressure system is rapidly moving Southeast across
Southcentral AK, with the low center currently located in the
Northern Gulf of Alaska. A weak deformation zone and well defined
clearing line can be seen on satellite working its way west to
east across the Southcentral Mainland. This deformation band
dropped about 2 inches of snow in the Anchorage area last night
into this morning. Satellite imagery capturing cumulus streamers
across Bristol Bay, the AKPen and Cook Inlet show cold air
advancing south through the state. Surface observations show winds
associated with the cold air strengthening and marching south as
well. In the Bering, the next front is moving into the Western
Aleutians and is also well depicted on satellite.

All of this is being supported in the upper levels by a 500MB
closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. A tight pressure gradient
behind this low and strong northerly flow extending south from
the Arctic (almost at the North Pole) is providing the setup for
this cold air push at the surface. In the Bering, an upper level
low moving out of the North Pacific towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula is providing support for the frontal system moving into
the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well. Overall, they are capturing
the low that moved from Southwest AK into the Gulf well. Models
are consistent in highlighting strong winds and cold temperatures
across Southcentral AK, keeping confidence high with respect to
the cold and windy weather that is inbound. One area they did not
capture well is snow amounts across Southcentral last night into
this morning, as we got more than expected. However, this does not
affect model performance going forward. Models are also consistent
across Southwest Alaska and the Bering, bringing high confidence
to the forecast for those regions as well.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong northerly winds are anticipated to impact the
airfield tonight. Winds currently in place will increase in
strength this afternoon, peaking late this evening through about
midnight. Winds will gradually decrease through the end of the TAF
period tomorrow, but gusts to at least 20 kts will continue until
tomorrow evening. Winds will finally calm tomorrow night.
Ceilings and visibility will remain VFR, with the cold air keeping
skies clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

The well-advertised storm causing winds and record setting cold
remains on track this afternoon. Many of the details described in
previous discussions remain in the forecast, and will not be
repeated here. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for Kodiak,
where as of 4pm the peak wind has already reached 61 mph, for
Seward, where the peak wind has reached 47 mph, and for Valdez and
Thompson Pass where gusts have reached 58 mph so far. The peak
winds in all of these areas are not expected until later tonight.
Gusts in Anchorage have already reached 35 mph, with peak winds
later tonight expected as well.

The main change this afternoon is the issuance of Wind Chill
Advisories up in Broad Pass for tonight for wind chills to 40
below, for the Paxson area along the Richardson Highway tonight
for wind chills to 50 below, and for much of the Copper River
Basin from Glennallen north Friday night for wind chills to 40
below. Tonight's primary player will be the winds, while tomorrow
night, the winds will be diminishing allowing the temperatures to
plummet. Thus, expect the lowest wind chills tonight with the core
of the coldest air. In the gaps of Isabel Pass and along the Tok
Cutoff, the winds will still be elevated through Friday evening,
resulting in repeat wind chills to 40 below.

Record setting cold is possible tonight, and more likely Friday
night. Tonight, the core of the coldest air will pass through
Southcentral, but the winds will counter the cold somewhat. Thus,
the confidence for record cold tonight is low. On Friday night,
temperatures aloft will already begin warming, but due to clear
skies, a record-setting deep snowpack in Anchorage for this late
into April, and the diminishing winds, radiational cooling will
be in overdrive. The main areas threatening new record lows
include Anchorage, Glennallen, Kenai, and Cordova.

On Saturday, Southcentral will begin the process of warming back
towards more normal temperatures, with highs warming around 5
degrees from Friday. High clouds will be moving in after sunrise
Saturday morning, then lower and thicken through the day. This is
ahead of a front that will rapidly fall apart as it approaches the
area. A rain/snow mix is possible in Kodiak ahead of this front
Saturday morning, but significant accumulations are not expected.
A second front/low moves into Southcentral from the south on
Sunday. This will not only bring much warmer temperatures, but
will return coastal rain and mountain snow to the Kenai Mountains
on Sunday. The southeasterly winds will result in drying of the
precipitation over Anchorage, the western Kenai, and the Mat-Su.
Thus, precipitation chances through Sunday have been reduced
significantly this afternoon. By Monday, some light precipitation
may make it into those aforementioned areas, but by then, above-
freezing temperatures cast some question as to what form that will
take.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Today through Saturday)...

A very cold, Arctic airmass has now spread across much of the
Southwest with single digit to below zero temperatures and clear
skies now over much of the region. Northwest winds are continuing
to cause localized areas of blowing snow, but significant
visibility restrictions have predominantly improved compared to
early this morning for parts of interior Bristol Bay and the Y-K
Delta. Very cold temperatures will be dipping down as low as -15
to -20 degrees for some interior locations tonight, with hazardous
wind chills as low as -30 possible with the coldest temperatures
and where light north winds persist.

Attention then quickly shifts to another front moving
onshore Friday afternoon into Saturday along the Southwest coast
that will bring another prolonged round of falling snow from
Bristol Bay to the Y-K Delta. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for expected blowing snow along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
where winds with the front gusting to 35 mph will be strongest.
Winds will die off as the front quickly degrades on Saturday.
However, light falling snow could continue across parts of the Y-K
Delta and north of Bristol Bay as additional waves eject into the
Southwest from an upper level low over the Bering through at
least Saturday evening. As temperatures warm back into the 30s
with the persistent southwest flow, this long-duration light
snowfall may begin to mix with rain at lower elevations by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Saturday)...

Northwest gap winds out of bays and passes along the AKPen will
generally be on the downward slide through this evening into
tonight, subsiding to gales or lower by early Friday. A gale
force front tracking across the Bering will bring blizzard
conditions to the Pribilof Islands from tonight into Saturday
morning. Temperatures will quickly warm with the frontal passage,
changing precipitation rapidly over to all snow by late Saturday
morning. Additionally, strong southeast winds ahead of the front
will track along the Alaska Peninsula, leading to freezing spray
until temperatures warm behind the front by Friday night.
Meanwhile, a large low center will drift into the western Bering,
bringing another round of southwest gales and rain/snow across the
Western Aleutians on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Generally southerly winds over the Gulf of Alaska,
with a low pressure system setting up a barrier jet with gale
force winds along the coast of of the Gulf of Alaska.

Bering Sea: A large area of low pressure will remain over the
Bering sea with gale force winds expected on Sunday. This will
dissipate through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Long term guidance is at least in fair agreement to start next
week. Therefore, moderate confidence in the overall picture but
there is not enough agreement on specific features to hone a solid
forecast yet. Generally, we can say that long wave troughing will
be present over the Bering Sea, meaning generally inclement
weather for that region and Southwest AK. Southcentral AK will be
on the leading edge of this trough, with shortwave troughs moving
through the flow over Southcentral. So, inclement weather can also
be expected, with some type of defined weather feature moving
through the region to start the week. As far as temperatures go,
with the center of the trough being park over the Bering, expect
cooler temperatures for that area and the Western Aleutians. Warming
can be expected for mainland AK with general southerly flow.

Moving through the week, this pattern is slow to move with the
trough slowly shifting east. This means weather will be slow to
change and we can expect unsettled weather for most locations with
cooler temperatures over the Bering and warmer temperatures over
Mainland AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141 145 155 195.
		 High Wind Warning 125 131 171.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 126 128 137 139 140.
		 Storm 120 121 127 129 132.
		 Hurricane Force Wind 130 131 138.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 119-132 137-141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/BB