Small Craft Advisory 854, NWS Anchorage, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAFC 272329
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281500-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 100 nm N of the Pribilofs will move to 100 nm E of the 
Pribilofs Thu morning. A 984 mb low will move to 200 nm S of Amchitka
Thu morning, then continue E along 50N to 200 nm S of Nikolski Thu 
afternoon. High pressure over Siberia will push SE into the Bering 
Sea. The low will move to 250 nm S of Cold Bay Fri morning as high 
pressure in the North Pacific pushes N into the Central Bering Sea. A
1012 mb low will develop over Northern Kamchatka and move into the 
Northern Bering Sea near the Dateline Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ150-281500-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281500-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
From
the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281500-
Bristol Bay-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas
5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-281500-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281500-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281500-
Unalaska Bay-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building
to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281500-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281500-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281500-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281500-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281500-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281500-
Adak to Kiska-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281500-
Kiska to Attu-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281500-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281500-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-281500-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-281500-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
329 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

676 
FZAK52 PAFC 281257
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-290115-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A Kamchatka low moves into the northern Bering 243 nm west- 
northwest of Saint Matthews Island at 1002 mb Sat morning. A 984mb
North Pacific low 235 nm south-southeast of Shemya on Thu morning
strengthens to 970mb while moving to 300 nm southeast of Sand 
Point by Sat morning. Its front remains south of the Aleutians.

$$

PKZ150-290115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-290115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-290115-
Bristol Bay-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-290115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-290115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-290115-
Unalaska Bay-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-290115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-290115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-290115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-290115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-290115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-290115-
Adak to Kiska-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-290115-
Kiska to Attu-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-290115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-290115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-290115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-290115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
457 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
806 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Corrected for typos.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level longwave trough extends out of the Chukchi Sea,
over Southwest mainland Alaska and then over Kodiak Island this
afternoon. Much colder temperatures aloft are associated with
this trough which will remain over the region for a few more
days. To the east of the trough there is some weak southerly flow
and a few areas of showers over the Gulf, but otherwise just
mostly cloudy. Southwest Mainland Alaska to the west of this
trough is seeing northwesterly flow aloft and is also dry.

A couple of surface lows of note are the one near St Matthew
Island which will maintain strength as it heads to the Southwest
AK coast tomorrow. Another low is due south of the tip of the
Kamchatka Peninsula. This low is the one that will bring the wet
and windy weekend to Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement into late in the week and have come
into much better agreement as far as the large storm this weekend
that will bring an atmospheric river to the north Gulf coast. The
main part of this better agreement is that it looks much more
likely that, after the initial push on Saturday, the flow aloft
will become more southeast-to-east instead of remaining due south.
This will have a large impact on rainfall amounts and is discussed
more in the 'long term' section.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2:
Tuesday through Wednesday night)...

Yesterday's small meso-low over the gulf and to the east of
Kodiak continues to spin idly this morning with ongoing areas of
light showers between the Kenai Peninsula and south of Prince
William Sound. Moving inland, dry conditions are prominent over
most of Southcentral with only Kodiak Island experiencing an
occasional passing bout of light rain. A lack of any major forcing
or trough movement through the region will continue for at least
one more day. As such, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will
be the norm with minimal precipitation chances. Today's highs will
span the low to mid 30's across the Anchorage Bowl. Locations
further south and areas along coastal waters will range from the
upper 30's into the lower 40's. Wednesday will see the beginning
of a pattern change across Southcentral with the passage of a
leading wave of low pressure Wednesday evening and the arrival of
a second and large upper low and associated front Wednesday night
or early Thursday morning. Light rain/snow chances will increase
throughout the day on Thursday from Prince William Sound into the
Copper Basin with a second round of precipitation to lift from
Kodiak into the Kenai Peninsula, and eventually across all of
Prince William Sound. Upper-level temperatures remain supportive
of winter precipitation with 850mb temperatures of -6 to -9
degrees Celsius. Thus, some areas could experience a dusting to
perhaps an inch or two of minor snow accumulations. A bigger story
through the end of the week will entail the potential development
of an atmospheric river into the Kenai Peninsula. This could
promote a prolonged period of rain for the town Seward, in
particular, which will require close monitoring of weather
conditions the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Tonight
through Fri afternoon)...

An upper level shortwave trough continues moving across interior
Southwest this evening through the overnight hours. Generally
expect dry and quiet conditions as a result with another cold
night on tap with widespread lows in the teens especially over
interior locations. Some typically colder spots might drop into
the upper single digits depending on the amount of cloud cover in
place. Breezy conditions (i.e. Iliamna and King Salmon) are
expected to continue out ahead of the shortwave trough through
this evening around (06z-10 PM) as slight cold air advection
combined with this upper level support continues. Winds are then
expected to diminish for the late evening and overnight hours
after the trough passes through.

Next, a low pressure system moving across the northern Bering Sea
tonight will send a front into the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
coasts. As a result, expect periods of snow with snow all the way
to the coast tonight/Wednesday due to the fairly cold air mass in
place. Only the very immediate coastal areas might warm up enough
to see a rain/snow mix as the warm air push with this system isn't
significantly strong and sea surface temperatures are still fairly
warm (upper 30s to low 40s). Temperatures closer to the coast
will be in the mid to upper 20s with near 30 to 34 degrees for the
immediate coastal locations tonight/Wednesday. Any periods of
snow aren't expected to linger too long for any one location,
therefore, 1 to 4 inches remains on track for this forecast
package. The 4 inches is expected in the vicinity of the Togiak
area where some orographic lift is expected. Winds are also
expected to remain in the 10 to 15 kts range, mitigating any
blowing snow concerns. Strongest winds are expected to remain
offshore.

Third, weak upper level ridging is expected to build in from the
northeast Thursday afternoon for the Kuskokwim Delta and Middle
Kuskokwim Valley with partial clearing skies. Expect even colder
temperatures overnight Thursday with widespread low to mid teens
inland with some single digits and low 20s for coastal areas.
Daytime highs Thursday- expect widespread mid to upper 20s with
some low 30s for coastal areas. An upper level low is expected to
move from southeast to northwest across interior Southwest
Thursday evening through Friday but with limited moisture so cloud
cover will be the main issue which will ultimately determine how
cold temperatures get for Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3...Tonight
through Fri afternoon)...

A low pressure system is expected to move across the northern
Bering southeastward to the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday morning
while slowly weakening. Expect a small corridor of storm force
winds on the west side of the system tonight as the system
strengthens. Then expect mostly high end gale force winds with
wind gusts up to 60 mph for the Pribilofs Wednesday as this
system moves off to the south. This system will bring another
round of increased gusty winds as well to the Eastern Aleutians
(Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay, and Sand Point area Wednesday to
Wednesday evening with gusts up to 45 mph. As this system moves
southeastward, snow showers are also expected for the Pribilofs
with rain and snow showers mixed along the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula Wednesday.

Another low pressure system is expected to skirt across the
Aleutian Chain Wednesday and Thursday bringing gale force winds
and periods of rain. The northern gradient of this system is
expected to be fairly tight so any shift in track could alter the
forecast. Latest model guidance keeps the heaviest precipitation
south of Adak and most of the Chain at this time. Otherwise expect
fairly cold air at 850 mb -10 to -15 degrees Celsius air flowing
over much of the Bering Wednesday night through Friday. This will
create unstable conditions as it moves over the relatively warm
water surface causing some cumulus development some of which might
grow enough to produce a snow shower. Freezing spray has is also
in the forecast west of Saint Matthew Island for Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Bering - A wind-wrapped low South of the Eastern Aleutians tracks
eastward and remains South of the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday.
The low elongates and remains near Kodiak Island. The main
uncertainty rests with the eastward movement of the low and its
associated winds and seas. Northerly high-end gale force over the
Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula with areas of storm force
winds on the Pacific side diminish late Saturday. Seas to 17 feet
on the Bering side, 20 feet on the Pacific side, subsiding Sunday.
A new low approaches the Western Aleutians Saturday with gusty
winds spreading over the Western and Central Aleutians, and gale
force winds offshore on the Pacific side. Seas building to 18 feet
over the Western Aleutians for Sunday.

Gulf of Alaska - A strong low tracks across South of the Gulf
through Sunday. Its elongated trough remains near Kodiak Island,
changing orientation through Sunday. Southerly high-end gale force
winds spread over the Gulf with storm force winds remaining South
of the Gulf through Saturday. All winds in all areas becomes
Southeasterly for Sunday. Northeasterly seas to 16 feet over the
Southern Shelikof Strait Saturday, subsiding. Seas building to 28
feet over the Gulf through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A major storm, which will have just moved south of the Aleutians,
will elongates over Kodiak Island and southward by Friday night.
This will usher in much warmer and wetter air to southcentral
Alaska by Friday night. Strong winds will encompass the entire
Gulf of Alaska area and push inland some. This main impacts will
be the potential for heavy and possibly prolonged rainfall
anywhere from Kodiak eastward to Cordova. At this time, Seward
looks to be the most likely place to see impacts from heavy rain
in this atmospheric river event. There still remains a bit of
uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will occur and for how
long. However, there is a better chance that the upper level flow
over the Gulf and into Southcentral will turn more to the
Southeast which will mitigate the rainfall amounts some for early
next week.

High winds are likely on Saturday for Turnagain Arm. The Anchorage
bowl may also see strong winds, but that depends on the exact
track of the low. The Copper River Basin will also warm up a bit
in the strong Southerly winds.

By Saturday night, the next strong low will move to the western
Aleutians and then encompass most of the Bering Sea region for
Sunday into Monday.

Southwest Alaska, Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea
will be in the colder, drier northwest flow and see windy
conditions for Saturday and Sunday. However, there is an
increasing chance for precipitation on Monday into Tuesday due to
the low over Kodiak this weekend phasing with a front from the
Bering Sea low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning...185.
		 Gale Warning...130 131 132 138 412 413 414 150 155 165
						170 171 172 176 177 178 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CQ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/EZ