Small Craft Advisory 853, NWS Anchorage, AK

684 
FZAK52 PAFC 270341 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-271245-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 mb low 160 nm west of St Matthew Island moves into the 
Western Gulf of Alaska at 997 mb by Thu afternoon. Its front moves
into the Gulf for Thu afternoon. A 982 mb North Pacific low moves
to 175 nm south of Seguam Island by Thu afternoon. Its front 
remains south of the Aleutians through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-271245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kts out of bays and passes in
the evening. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-271245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-271245-
Bristol Bay-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-271245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt except W 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft except 13 ft from Port
Moller E. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-271245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-271245-
Unalaska Bay-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-271245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-271245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-271245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-271245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-271245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-271245-
Adak to Kiska-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-271245-
Kiska to Attu-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-271245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft in the evening 
building to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon.
Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-271245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-271245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt...except SW W of Nunivak Island. Seas 7 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-271245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
741 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt becoming N
after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind increasing to 50 
kt. Seas 15 ft. and rain showers.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

289 
FZAK52 PAFC 271213
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-280115-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 991 mb low 50 nm West of Nunivak moves 85 nm North of Cold Bay 
at 995 mb by Thu morning. Wednesday afternoon there is a 989 mb 
Pacific low 260 nm south of Attu Island. This low will move to 170 
nm south of Nikolski by Thu afternoon and 220 nm south of Sand Point 
Fri morning. Its front remains South of the Aleutians through Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-280115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-280115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-280115-
Bristol Bay-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-280115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-280115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-280115-
Unalaska Bay-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-280115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-280115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-280115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-280115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-280115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-280115-
Adak to Kiska-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-280115-
Kiska to Attu-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-280115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-280115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-280115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-280115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels, a large negatively tilted longwave trough is
over much of the southern mainland and the Gulf. A weak upper
level low is embedded within this longwave trough. A shortwave
trough is over the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile an 85 kt jet is
moving into the western Bering and Central Aleutians.

Closer to the surface, a large low is south of the Gulf, but the
northern half of the low is causing scattered shower activity and
widespread cloud cover over the Gulf and much of Southcentral.
Shower activity is also widespread over much of the Bering.
Northwesterly flow of cold air is causing the usual cumulus cloud
streets over the eastern Bering down to the Eastern Aleutians and
the AKPEN. Several small mesolows are over the Gulf, with the
0636Z ASCAT pass showing 2 separate circulations over the northern
Gulf and the other well over the southern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement remains good through late Wednesday night on the
large scale. The timing of several mesoscale waves expected to hit
the southern mainland and their impacts remain the points of
greatest uncertainty this morning. The GFS is the main outlier
with precipitation over Southcentral, extending it well into the
Talkeetna mountains by late Wednesday night. All other models hold
off on the precipitation until Thursday morning as Gulf moisture
moves inland over Southcentral. The low moving into Southwest
Alaska has been gradually drifting eastward from model run to
model run, which will likely result in snow over more of that
area. More on that below. Overall forecast confidence is above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2:
Tuesday through Wednesday night)...

Yesterday's small meso-low over the Gulf and to the east of
Kodiak continues to spin idly this morning with ongoing areas of
light showers between the Kenai Peninsula and south of Prince
William Sound. Moving inland, dry conditions are prominent over
most of Southcentral with only Kodiak Island experiencing an
occasional passing bout of light rain. A lack of any major forcing
or trough movement through the region will continue for at least
one more day. As such, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will
be the norm with minimal precipitation chances. Today's highs will
span the low to mid 30's across the Anchorage Bowl. Locations
further south and areas along coastal waters will range from the
upper 30's into the lower 40's. Wednesday will see the beginning
of a pattern change across Southcentral with the passage of a
leading wave of low pressure Wednesday evening and the arrival of
a second and large upper low and associated front Wednesday night
or early Thursday morning. Light rain/snow chances will increase
throughout the day on Thursday from Prince William Sound into the
Copper Basin with a second round of precipitation to lift from
Kodiak into the Kenai Peninsula, and eventually across all of
Prince William Sound. Upper-level temperatures remain supportive
of winter precipitation with 850mb temperatures of -6 to -9
degrees Celsius. Thus, some areas could experience a dusting to
perhaps an inch or two of minor snow accumulations. A bigger story
through the end of the week will entail the potential development
of an atmospheric river into the Kenai Peninsula. This could
promote a prolonged period of rain for Seward, in particular,
which will require close monitoring of weather conditions the next
several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2)...

Cool air continues to stream into Southwest AK this morning from
the north around a transient ridge axis drifting across the
eastern Bering. Most of the region will stay dry today, with the
possible exception of portions of the Y-K Delta and southern
AKPen, where light rain or snow showers will occasionally move
ashore from the Bering. The cold northerly flow will continue to
drive gusty gap winds along the AKPen through this afternoon
before winds become more westerly ahead of the next system on
track to impact parts of the area later in the week.

A compact low pressure system will move across the northern and
eastern Bering between today through Wednesday night, bringing
renewed potential for snowfall along much of the Southwest coast.
The front associated with this low will approach the coastline by
tonight, with multiple bands of snow moving along and out ahead of
the front axis into mainly areas near the coast of the Y-K Delta
and northern Bristol Bay. Behind the leading wave of snow showers
moving in tonight, a more intense band of snowfall will sweep
across similar areas on Wednesday morning, particularly from areas
roughly from Dillingham to Kipnuk. While it again appears a brief
period of moderate snowfall is possible, current indications
continue to suggest the frontal band will move past quickly enough
to preclude any snowfall rates requiring winter weather
headlines. However, this forecast package continues to call for
around 1 inch to locally as high as 4 inches of new snowfall
during the day on Wednesday, with the heaviest totals focused near
the Togiak area. Some model uncertainty for this system persists,
so be sure to monitor the forecast for additional updates as
details become further refined.

The increasingly occluded and stacked low will move over the
northern AKPen by late Wednesday into early Thursday, keeping
cloud cover and widely scattered snow showers in place for much of
the region. The best chance for additional accumulating snow
through Thursday morning will be in the Iliamna Lake vicinity,
where another inch or two of snowfall is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2)...

A transient ridge over the eastern Bering will exit into the
North Pacific today ahead of what will be the main weather system
to impact the bulk of the forecast area for the next couple days.
In the meantime, convective rain and snow showers driven by cool
northerly flow moving over the comparatively warm sea surface
will continue intermittently this morning for areas along the
Eastern Aleutians and over the Pribilofs.

By this afternoon, a tightly-wound, compact low will enter the
northern Bering behind the departing ridge, sending another round
of showers mostly in the form of rain across much of the Bering
and south into the Aleutians by tonight. There remain indications
that a very narrow corridor of winds briefly reaching storm force
will follow just to the west of the compact low center as it dives
southeast, with the best potential for winds nearing this
threshold west of St Matthew Island and north of the Pribilof
Islands from tonight through Wednesday morning. However,
uncertainty for the exact track of the low and intensity of the
winds remains high enough to forgo including any areas of
sustained storm force winds with this forecast package. A larger
area of northwesterly gale force winds will follow the low south
over the central Bering, reaching the Eastern Aleutians by
Wednesday night as the low approaches the AKPen. Winds could also
become quite strong over the Pribilofs on Wednesday as the low
moves just to the east, with gusts as high as 60 mph possible.

The aforementioned system will weaken quickly as it crosses into
the Gulf early on Thursday morning, with winds dying down below
gale force and rain/snow showers likewise gradually ending near
the Eastern Aleutians. At the same time, another low pressure
system will move south of the Western Aleutians, bringing in
steady rain and winds increasing to gale force early on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...
The main storm of concern for late this week will be one that
tracks jut south of the Aleutians and brings gale and probably
storm force winds to the Aleutians Thursday into Friday. This low
will then elongate along a north-to-south line from Kodiak Island
Southward which will likely bring storm force winds across the
Gulf of Alaska Friday night into Saturday with gales and possibly
a few storms over Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula at that
time. This overall pattern is one that is likely to develop as
described so the main uncertainty will be the details in where and
when the strongest winds and highest seas will be.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Friday will be a day where the pattern starts to transition into
an active and stormy one for the forecast area. Southern Mainland
Alaska will start off under a cold upper level trough with a few
shortwaves overhead and then transition as a major storm which
will move south of the Aleutians and elongate over Kodiak Island
and southward. This will usher in much warmer and wetter air mass
into Southcentral Alaska by Friday night (during the day Friday
for Kodiak). Strong winds will encompass the entire Gulf of Alaska
area and push inland some. The main impacts will be the potential
for heavy and prolonged rainfall from anywhere from Kodiak
eastward to Cordova (including the Seward area) in this
atmospheric river event. There remains a bit of uncertainty as to
where the heaviest rain will occur and for how long. This is one
of the main forecast questions that will need to be addressed
through the remainder of the week. High winds are possible for
Turnagain Arm depending on the exact track of the low.

Southwest Alaska, Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea
will be in the colder, drier northwest flow and see windy
conditions for Friday into Sunday. By Saturday night, the next
strong low will move to the western Aleutians and then encompass
most of the Bering Sea region for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130-132, 138, 150, 165-171, 174, 179, 185,
					   412-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...EZ