Small Craft Advisory 812, NWS Anchorage, AK

728 
FZAK51 PAFC 131145
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140045-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 mb low 130 nm southwest of Yakutat moves to 50 nm southeast
of Yakutat at 989 mb Wed afternoon and then inland while 
dissipating Wed evening. A 989 mb low develops 50 nm south of
Seward Wed afternoon and moves to 40 nm north of Middleton Island 
Thu morning and then into Prince William Sound Thu afternoon and
dissipates Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-140045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to W 25 kt toward morning. 
Near the coast, Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt near the coast. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140045-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140045-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140045-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT AND THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140045-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140045-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140045-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140045-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S of Dangerous Cape, W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, W wind 10 kt
increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140045-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140045-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140045-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt, becoming Variable 10 kt N of 
Anchor Point in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140045-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

549 
FZAK51 PAFC 132232
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141130-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 35 nm east of the Barren Islands Wed afternoon moves
to 40 nm northwest of Middleton Island at 990 mb Thu afternoon 
and then into Prince William Sound and dissipates Fri morning. A 
998 mb low from the Bering moves to 165 nm south of Sitkinak at 
994 mb Fri morning and reaches 320 nm southeast of Sitkinak at 996
mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141130-
Resurrection Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141130-
Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141130-
Port Valdez-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141130-
Valdez Narrows-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141130-
Valdez Arm-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141130-
Passage Canal-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 15 kt.Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier.  Seas 2 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141130-
Barren Islands East-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141130-
Chiniak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141130-
Marmot Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141130-
Shelikof Strait-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt, becoming Variable 10 kt N of 
Anchor Point in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141130-
Kachemak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A nearly vertically stacked low is currently spinning over the
east-central Gulf southeast of Middleton Island. ASCAT
Scatterometer data showed storm force winds occurring in the
barrier jet earlier in the night. This storm is also causing some
strong gusty winds especially through the Thompson Pass area where
sustained winds have been between 35 to 45 mph with wind gusts
upwards of 48 kts overnight or 55 mph. The winds have also come
into Valdez with wind gusts upwards of 30 kts or 35 mph earlier in
the night. Cordova was gusting out of the north as well with
gusts to 20 kts or 23 mph. Gulkana also was experiencing gusty
winds with gusts upwards of 29 kts or 33 mph. Lastly, further
west, Seward was gusting up to 31 kts (36 mph) earlier in the
night out of the north with Whittier also gusting as high as 33
kts or 38 mph out of the west to southwest direction earlier in
the night. Elsewhere, weather conditions are fairly benign with
light winds and partly to mostly cloudy conditions with
temperatures mostly in the 30s to near 40 degrees area-wide.
Kenai, Soldotna, and Talkeetna were near 32 degrees or colder in
the upper 20s this morning.

Next, an elongated area of low pressure was seen on satellite and
water vapor imagery this morning moving eastward across the Bering
Sea. This was currently situated just west of the Pribilof
Islands. The low is being accompanied by a 140+ kt jet streak
racing eastward across the southern Bering. This was bringing
small crafts to gale force winds to much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Island Chain this morning. Unsettled conditions in the
form of rain showers have also been fairly widespread across the
area as well. Much of Southwest remains quiet weatherwise this
morning with areas of fog being observed especially in Bethel
where 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility was being observed. Areas where
there is no fog are either clear to partly cloudy or have a low
stratus deck (New Stuyahok and Koliganek).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance overall is in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features out through Day 3 though there differences arise with an
upper level shortwave Wednesday night into Thursday. Model
guidance is in generally good agreement with this feature through
12z Thursday before diverging. The GFS is showing a closed off and
further west (over Bristol Bay) upper level shortwave/trough, NAM
is keeping it an open wave but much further east moving northward
along the Kenai Peninsula. The EC is somewhere in the middle of
the other two models. The Canadian-NH keeps this feature more
elongated instead of consolidated like the GFS is doing. The
evolution of how this upper level pattern plays out from mid to
late week will be crucial to the sensible weather observed in
areas. The upper level pattern is messy to say the least with the
evolution of all these subtle pieces of energy associated with the
main piece of energy. In other words, expect an unsettled regime
beginning Wednesday and continuing through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

The deep low over the northern Gulf this morning will exit quickly
to Southeast Alaska this afternoon. Strong and gusty gap winds
along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound will rapidly diminish
this morning with the low's exit. Weak upper level short-waves
on the north side of the low will track westward across the
Copper River Basin today, then reverse course and track back
eastward tonight thanks to progressive upper level (westerly)
flow. These waves will produce areas of light precipitation across
much of the Copper Basin, mostly in the form of snow this morning,
but mixing with or changing to rain this afternoon. The remainder
of Southcentral will experience a dry, but crisp fall day.

The strong zonal sub-tropical jet will persist from the Aleutians
to the southern Gulf over the next few days. A series of weak
surface lows and upper level short-waves will track quickly from
the Bering and Aleutians eastward across the Gulf of Alaska and
Kodiak Island. The bulk of impacts (winds and precipitation) will
remain across the southern tier of the forecast area - and away
from Southcentral. However, model guidance all indicates a short-
wave trough moving to Southcentral Wednesday night/Thursday and
amplifying overhead. There is poor agreement on the placement of
the trough, but this generally indicates an increased chance for
light precipitation. With a fairly cold airmass in place, this
should produce mostly snow for inland locations, with rain or
rain/snow mix along the coast. The trough and associated
precipitation will likely linger in the region all the way
through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A wet pattern continues especially along the Southwest coastal
areas through the next few days. This morning into the afternoon,
more rain is on the way to Southwest coast as a result of a
departing low combined with a shortwave aloft. Trailing clouds
offshore will continue to bring intermittent light rain through
the region into Wednesday afternoon. Thursday, another round of
rain will arrive as another low approaches the eastern Bering
before crossing the Alaska Peninsula on Thu night. Mixed rain/snow
is feasible at times with the two separate synoptic patterns.
Daytime temperatures over the next couple of days will range
anywhere in the low to the mid 30s with overnight lows in the
teens to the low 20s over the interior valleys, and low to mid 30s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Thursday)...

Two separate synoptic features will dominate the region, allowing
gales and large seas to persist the next couple days. As noted on
the discussion for Southwest Alaska, the first synoptic low is
trekking through the eastern Bering today which will maintain
gales and rough seas. The second low from Kamchatka Peninsula on
Wed night will again bring gales over the Bering/Aleutians. This
latter system could either steer gales farther south or near
Pribilof Islands by Thu morning, which will be closely monitored
for updates. Cold air advection accompanying this system will
bring another round of rain, wind, and high seas across the Bering
and the Aleutians through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low over the North Gulf Coast spreads westerly
gale force winds across the Gulf through Thursday afternoon. A
second low crosses over the Alaska Peninsula Thursday evening and
enters the Gulf by Friday. This low spreads high-end westerly
gales, with areas of storm force winds, south of the Aleutians and
across the western Gulf through Thursday. The winds diminish to
northwesterly gales across the western Gulf and easterly gales
along the North Gulf Coast through Friday night. Seas to 16 feet
in the central Gulf, subsiding Friday.

Bering Sea: Widespread high-end gales across the entire Bering
and south of the Aleutians, with areas of storm force winds,
through Thursday. Seas to 21 feet in the southern Bering and along
the southern Aleutians, subsiding Friday. A well-developed, wind-
wrapped low reaches the western Aleutians Friday morning and
spreads storm force winds across the western Aleutians and in
areas across the Bering from Friday night through Saturday
morning. Seas to 19 feet west of the Aleutians for Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The extended timeframe continues to mostly feature unusually
decent model agreement from the end of this week through early
next week. Longwave troughing and below average 500 mb heights are
likely to stay anchored over mainland Alaska, with a prevailing
storm track and upper jet remaining well to the south and west
near the Aleutians/Gulf. This south-shifted low track should keep
the pattern fairly mundane and dry over most of Southcentral and
Southwest, with the more active and impactful conditions likely to
remain over marine areas of the Bering/Gulf, and over parts of
the Aleutian Chain and AKPen at times.

On Friday, an occluded and weakening low is projected to be over
or just east of Kodiak Island, with a relatively cold air mass
spilling in out of the north over much of Southwest and the
eastern Bering off to the west of the Gulf low. The brisk north to
northwest flow and cold advection will drive gusty (but not
particularly strong) gap winds along the AKPen until Friday
evening as a shortwave ridge moves into place and the pressure
gradient weakens. Meanwhile, the main player for the rest of the
extended range will enter the western Bering as a gale to possibly
storm force low by early Saturday morning, with its front
extending well out ahead across the Aleutians and central Bering.
The front will bring a period of moderate rainfall and southeast
winds to the Pribilofs and along most of the Aleutian Chain on
Saturday, with intense westerly winds potentially up to storm
force spreading across the Western Aleutians south of the parent
low center by Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, a new low will likely form somewhere along the Bering
low’s front in the western Gulf and quickly transition to the
dominant center as it quickly deepens and moves slowly east. Some
more noticeable model disagreement does pick up by this point,
with some uncertainty for how far north the low will track as it
drifts into the Gulf on Sunday and Monday. That said, the general
consensus remains at the large scale, with an amplifying ridge
moving over the Bering as the large, closed low remains over the
Gulf. Strong northerly flow will develop between these two
features, supporting potentially quite intense gap winds along and
just south of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen from late Sunday to
Monday. A barrier jet will also likely materialize along the
low’s front, pushing into the north Gulf Coast at some point on
Monday. Any other impacts farther north over the southern mainland
will be highly dependent on the low’s track, which again
remains somewhat more uncertain for the current outlook.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 351 352 411 412 413 131 132 150 155 165 170
171 172 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP/AS