Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected to
develop early this afternoon over the northern and southwest
mountains. Storms will generally move in a southerly direction as
they move onto lower elevation areas through the evening hours. The
strongest thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, hail, and
gusty downburst winds. Storm activity will taper off around
midnight.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
This week and upcoming weekend will continue to be quite active as
little change in the overall pattern is anticipated. There will be
subtle day to day changes depending on whether a weak short wave is
rotating around the upper high to our west. But there will be plenty
of convection each and every day through the forecast period. The
risk of flash flooding will be high, especially on recent burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Any weakening or positional shift with the upper high will be
minimal today with 500 mb heights continuing to exhibit about 2
standard deviations above climatology over southern NV and southern
CA. A bit of dry air aloft may wrap into northern NM today and the
high 50’s to 60’s surface dewpoints will lower several degrees in
most zones by this afternoon as diurnal mixing ensues. Still, most
sections of the forecast area will retain PWATs between about 0.7 to
1.1 inch. Mid level (600mb) theta-E prognoses indicate lower values
sagging into east central to southeastern NM this afternoon while
forecast soundings supplement this, revealing a subsidence inversion
at this level which may act to suppress convection there. In
addition, less overall moisture and instability in the San Juan
basin of northwestern NM may keep deep moist convection from
initiating and sustaining itself today. Elsewhere, a healthy crop of
storms is expected today with highest prospects in the southwestern
and northern mountains. The southwestern mountains received ample
rainfall last evening, and the Johnson and Vic’s Peak burn scars are
also highly vulnerable, so a Flash Flood Watch will be hoisted for
these and adjacent zones through midnight. Lastly, surface winds
will veer a bit more southerly today, but with north northeasterly
flow aloft there will still be 25 to 30 kt of effective bulk shear,
and a few strong to perhaps severe cells cannot be ruled out between
the southwestern and the northern peaks of the state today.
Convection should wind down toward midnight.

Into Tuesday, the high begins to show signs of weakening over
southern CA and a shortwave trough should work its way over the Four
Corners. Through the afternoon Tuesday the southwestern mountains to
the northern mountains will once again outline the main axis of
storm initiation with better prospects for storms to sustain
themselves into adjacent lower valleys, including rain-depleted San
Juan county. Locally heavy rain will be a threat Tuesday with storm
motions turning slower and more erratic. A couple degrees of cooling
can also be expected in western zones.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
The upper high centered over southern CA late Tuesday will briefly
get nudged west over The coastal pacific Thursday as a short wave
trough passes to our northeast Wednesday into Thursday. This is when
we could see an increase in storm coverage as the associated back
door front impacts NM as well. But the high will move east again
Friday with the ridge axis moving over NM this weekend. There may be
a small drop in thunderstorms this weekend, but not worth writing
home about. The upper high will strengthen some early next week as it
parks over northern CO/southern WY. But the lower level moisture
will refuse to leave, keeping NM active with daily rounds of showers
and storms late next week through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active week of thunderstorms is expected as ebbs and flows of
monsoon moisture continue to circulate through NM. After one more
day of low, sub 15 percent RH and hot temperatures in northwestern
NM, deeper moisture should finally begin to expand into this area
through mid week with cooler temperatures, increased humidity and a
chance for wetting rainfall. Storm chances will tend to be lowest in
the far eastern plains, but isolated cells may still periodically
develop in this area through the week. Storm motions will be quite
variable with sluggish movements on Tuesday before increasing again
for the remainder of the week. Many storms will be capable of
locally heavy rainfall, and/or flash flooding, especially over burn
scars or during periods of slow-moving storms. Probabilities for new
lightning ignitions would tend to remain highest in northwestern
zones where fuels have been baking and curing for the past few
weeks, but mid week storms should hopefully provide some relief.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-209-220-241.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
342 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ201>241-131300-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
342 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through the overnight. Storm motions will be slow and toward the
southwest. Rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially over and downstream of recent
and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 or 3
inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. Storm
motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead
to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and downstream
of recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to
2 or 3 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce hail and
wind gusts to 55 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
147 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ210-122015-
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
147 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 147 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vallecitos, or 26 miles southeast of Tierra Amarilla, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canon Plaza, Vallecitos, Petaca and Las Tablas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 10609 3649 10597 3634 10617 3636 10620
      3635 10621 3656 10636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 058DEG 7KT 3653 10611

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ202-205-122030-
West Central Plateau-Chuska Mountains-
201 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 201 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tse Bonito, or 17 miles northwest of Gallup, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tse Bonito, Lupton, Manuelito and Window Rock.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10905 3571 10887 3538 10884 3535 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 008DEG 18KT 3565 10899

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ213-215-122100-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
223 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TAOS AND NORTHWESTERN
COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 222 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Red River, or 25 miles east of Questa, moving
south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 10504 3658 10503 3662 10536 3690 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 007DEG 16KT 3683 10516

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