Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Albuquerque, NM

150 
WGUS65 KABQ 121751
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ208-209-220-241-130600-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0007.210712T1800Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest Mountains-San Francisco River Valley-Lower Rio Grande
Valley-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
1151 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and west central New Mexico, including the 
  following areas, in central New Mexico, Lower Rio Grande Valley 
  and San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands. In west central New 
  Mexico, San Francisco River Valley and Southwest Mountains.

* Through this evening.

* Abundant moisture and instability will lead to another round of 
  scattered to numerous thunderstorms today, many of which will be 
  slow moving. These strong and slow-moving thunderstorms will 
  elevate the threat for flash flooding across parts of southwestern 
  and south central New Mexico through this evening. Torrential 
  rainfall in excess of 2 inches will be possible with the strongest 
  storms.

The greatest threat for flash flooding will be over wildfire burn 
scars and areas that have recently received heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Guyer

058 
WGUS65 KABQ 130223
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
823 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NMZ208-209-220-241-130330-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest Mountains-San Francisco River Valley-Lower Rio Grande
Valley-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
823 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central and west central New 
Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, Lower 
Rio Grande Valley and San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands. In 
west central New Mexico, San Francisco River Valley and Southwest 
Mountains. has been cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Showers and thunderstorms have 
diminished in areal coverage and intensity this evening. However, 
flows of water from upstream rain areas may still take time to reach 
your location. Turn around, don't drown.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
This week and upcoming weekend will continue to be quite active as
little change in the overall pattern is anticipated. There will be
subtle day to day changes depending on whether a weak short wave is
rotating around the upper high to our west. But there will be plenty
of convection each and every day through the forecast period. The
risk of flash flooding will be high, especially on recent burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Any weakening or positional shift with the upper high will be
minimal today with 500 mb heights continuing to exhibit about 2
standard deviations above climatology over southern NV and southern
CA. A bit of dry air aloft may wrap into northern NM today and the
high 50’s to 60’s surface dewpoints will lower several degrees in
most zones by this afternoon as diurnal mixing ensues. Still, most
sections of the forecast area will retain PWATs between about 0.7 to
1.1 inch. Mid level (600mb) theta-E prognoses indicate lower values
sagging into east central to southeastern NM this afternoon while
forecast soundings supplement this, revealing a subsidence inversion
at this level which may act to suppress convection there. In
addition, less overall moisture and instability in the San Juan
basin of northwestern NM may keep deep moist convection from
initiating and sustaining itself today. Elsewhere, a healthy crop of
storms is expected today with highest prospects in the southwestern
and northern mountains. The southwestern mountains received ample
rainfall last evening, and the Johnson and Vic’s Peak burn scars are
also highly vulnerable, so a Flash Flood Watch will be hoisted for
these and adjacent zones through midnight. Lastly, surface winds
will veer a bit more southerly today, but with north northeasterly
flow aloft there will still be 25 to 30 kt of effective bulk shear,
and a few strong to perhaps severe cells cannot be ruled out between
the southwestern and the northern peaks of the state today.
Convection should wind down toward midnight.

Into Tuesday, the high begins to show signs of weakening over
southern CA and a shortwave trough should work its way over the Four
Corners. Through the afternoon Tuesday the southwestern mountains to
the northern mountains will once again outline the main axis of
storm initiation with better prospects for storms to sustain
themselves into adjacent lower valleys, including rain-depleted San
Juan county. Locally heavy rain will be a threat Tuesday with storm
motions turning slower and more erratic. A couple degrees of cooling
can also be expected in western zones.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
The upper high centered over southern CA late Tuesday will briefly
get nudged west over The coastal pacific Thursday as a short wave
trough passes to our northeast Wednesday into Thursday. This is when
we could see an increase in storm coverage as the associated back
door front impacts NM as well. But the high will move east again
Friday with the ridge axis moving over NM this weekend. There may be
a small drop in thunderstorms this weekend, but not worth writing
home about. The upper high will strengthen some early next week as it
parks over northern CO/southern WY. But the lower level moisture
will refuse to leave, keeping NM active with daily rounds of showers
and storms late next week through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active week of thunderstorms is expected as ebbs and flows of
monsoon moisture continue to circulate through NM. After one more
day of low, sub 15 percent RH and hot temperatures in northwestern
NM, deeper moisture should finally begin to expand into this area
through mid week with cooler temperatures, increased humidity and a
chance for wetting rainfall. Storm chances will tend to be lowest in
the far eastern plains, but isolated cells may still periodically
develop in this area through the week. Storm motions will be quite
variable with sluggish movements on Tuesday before increasing again
for the remainder of the week. Many storms will be capable of
locally heavy rainfall, and/or flash flooding, especially over burn
scars or during periods of slow-moving storms. Probabilities for new
lightning ignitions would tend to remain highest in northwestern
zones where fuels have been baking and curing for the past few
weeks, but mid week storms should hopefully provide some relief.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
The aviation concerns will now shift to low cloud development and
expansion, mostly across the eastern half of the state, and
specifically along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
where MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected. Some low clouds may sneak
into north central areas of the state as well, including near KSAF.
Low clouds and any fog will slowly burn off and erode through the
late morning Monday with another round of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms expected to redevelop by the afternoon. Storms will
favor the southwestern and northern mountains of New Mexico and many
lower elevation areas in between, posing risks of heavy downpours,
hail, and gusty downburst winds. Storms will once again come to an
end by midnight in most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  66  95  62 /  10  10  20  60
Dulce...........................  90  53  89  51 /  40  20  50  80
Cuba............................  86  56  86  57 /  30  30  40  80
Gallup..........................  95  57  91  58 /  20  20  40  70
El Morro........................  87  54  84  54 /  30  40  60  80
Grants..........................  89  56  87  57 /  30  40  50  80
Quemado.........................  88  56  84  58 /  50  50  70  80
Magdalena.......................  84  61  81  63 /  30  50  40  50
Datil...........................  85  55  81  58 /  50  60  60  70
Reserve.........................  92  55  89  58 /  60  60  70  70
Glenwood........................  92  61  89  67 /  60  50  60  60
Chama...........................  81  49  81  49 /  50  30  70  80
Los Alamos......................  82  59  82  59 /  50  40  50  70
Pecos...........................  81  56  82  58 /  60  40  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  81  50  82  45 /  60  30  60  60
Red River.......................  71  43  72  45 /  60  30  70  50
Angel Fire......................  74  38  75  46 /  60  30  60  50
Taos............................  85  51  86  53 /  60  30  60  50
Mora............................  77  51  78  52 /  60  30  50  50
Espanola........................  88  60  89  62 /  50  40  40  60
Santa Fe........................  84  60  85  61 /  50  40  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  88  58  88  60 /  50  40  40  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  88  67 /  30  40  30  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  68  90  67 /  20  40  20  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  63  92  67 /  20  40  20  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  67  90  67 /  20  40  20  60
Belen...........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  40  20  50
Bernalillo......................  92  64  91  66 /  30  40  30  60
Bosque Farms....................  92  64  91  66 /  20  40  20  50
Corrales........................  93  65  92  66 /  30  40  30  60
Los Lunas.......................  92  64  91  66 /  20  40  20  50
Placitas........................  90  63  89  64 /  40  40  30  60
Rio Rancho......................  91  66  91  66 /  20  40  20  60
Socorro.........................  91  66  90  67 /  20  40  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  60  84  61 /  40  50  40  60
Tijeras.........................  87  62  87  61 /  40  50  30  60
Edgewood........................  86  58  86  59 /  40  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  56  87  59 /  40  40  30  50
Clines Corners..................  81  56  82  57 /  40  40  30  40
Mountainair.....................  84  58  83  58 /  30  40  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  83  58  82  59 /  30  40  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  86  63  85  64 /  20  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  55  79  55 /  30  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  84  55  85  55 /  30  20  30  20
Raton...........................  86  54  88  56 /  40  20  30  30
Springer........................  87  55  89  58 /  50  20  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  79  53  81  56 /  50  30  30  40
Clayton.........................  88  63  91  65 /  20  20   5  10
Roy.............................  83  59  85  62 /  40  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  89  65  91  66 /  30  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  86  63  87  64 /  30  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  91  68  93  68 /  20  20   0  10
Clovis..........................  87  65  88  65 /  10  10   0  10
Portales........................  87  66  88  66 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  88  67  89  66 /  10  20   5  10
Roswell.........................  89  69  90  67 /   5  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  82  63  84  61 /  20  20  10  10
Elk.............................  79  58  80  57 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  66  95  62 /  10  20  30  60
Dulce...........................  90  53  89  51 /  40  40  60  80
Cuba............................  86  56  86  57 /  40  50  50  80
Gallup..........................  95  57  91  58 /  20  30  60  70
El Morro........................  87  54  84  54 /  40  40  60  80
Grants..........................  89  56  87  57 /  40  50  60  80
Quemado.........................  88  56  84  58 /  60  60  70  80
Magdalena.......................  84  61  81  63 /  40  50  50  50
Datil...........................  85  55  81  58 /  50  60  70  70
Reserve.........................  92  55  89  58 /  60  70  70  70
Glenwood........................  92  61  89  67 /  60  70  60  60
Chama...........................  81  49  81  49 /  40  50  70  80
Los Alamos......................  82  59  82  59 /  50  50  50  70
Pecos...........................  81  56  82  58 /  60  50  50  50
Cerro/Questa....................  81  50  82  45 /  50  30  70  60
Red River.......................  71  43  72  45 /  50  30  70  50
Angel Fire......................  74  38  75  46 /  60  30  60  50
Taos............................  85  51  86  53 /  50  30  60  50
Mora............................  77  51  78  52 /  60  40  50  50
Espanola........................  88  60  89  62 /  40  40  50  60
Santa Fe........................  84  60  85  61 /  50  50  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  88  58  88  60 /  40  60  50  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  88  67 /  30  50  40  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  68  90  67 /  20  50  30  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  63  92  67 /  20  50  30  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  67  90  67 /  20  50  30  60
Belen...........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  50  30  50
Bernalillo......................  92  64  91  66 /  30  50  30  60
Bosque Farms....................  92  64  91  66 /  20  50  30  50
Corrales........................  93  65  92  66 /  30  50  30  60
Los Lunas.......................  92  64  91  66 /  20  50  30  50
Placitas........................  90  63  89  64 /  30  50  40  60
Rio Rancho......................  91  66  91  66 /  20  50  30  60
Socorro.........................  91  66  90  67 /  20  50  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  60  84  61 /  40  50  40  60
Tijeras.........................  87  62  87  61 /  40  60  40  60
Edgewood........................  86  58  86  59 /  40  50  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  56  87  59 /  50  50  40  50
Clines Corners..................  81  56  82  57 /  50  50  40  40
Mountainair.....................  84  58  83  58 /  30  60  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  83  58  82  59 /  30  60  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  86  63  85  64 /  30  50  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  55  79  55 /  30  30  40  20
Capulin.........................  84  55  85  55 /  40  30  30  20
Raton...........................  86  54  88  56 /  40  30  40  30
Springer........................  87  55  89  58 /  50  30  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  79  53  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
Clayton.........................  88  63  91  65 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  83  59  85  62 /  50  40  20  20
Conchas.........................  89  65  91  66 /  30  40  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  86  63  87  64 /  30  40  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  91  68  93  68 /  10  30   5  10
Clovis..........................  87  65  88  65 /  10  20   0  10
Portales........................  87  66  88  66 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  88  67  89  66 /  10  20   0  10
Roswell.........................  89  69  90  67 /  10  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  82  63  84  61 /  10  20  20  10
Elk.............................  79  58  80  57 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... NMZ208-209-220-241.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1244 AM MDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     HAIL             2 SSW PHILMONT SCOUT RA 36.46N 104.95W
07/11/2021  M1.70 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 15 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102450

SHOEMAKE