Flood Watch 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

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WGUS65 KABQ 161643
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1043 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

NMZ206>209-220-224>226-239>241-170045-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FA.A.0001.210816T1900Z-210817T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0021.210816T1900Z-210817T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Lower Rio Grande Valley-South Central
Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-Eastern
Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and
Adjacent Lowlands-
1043 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...


The Flood Watch for portions of central, southeast, and west central 
New Mexico has been converted to a Flash Flood Watch.

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central, southeast, and west 
  central New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New 
  Mexico, Eastern Lincoln County, Lower Rio Grande Valley, San 
  Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands, South Central Highlands, 
  South Central Mountains and Upper Tularosa Valley. In southeast 
  New Mexico, Southwest Chaves County. In west central New Mexico, 
  San Francisco River Valley, Southwest Mountains, West Central 
  Highlands and West Central Mountains.

* Until 10 PM MDT this evening.

* The potential for heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, 
  especially this afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of one 
  inches in 45 minutes or less can be expected with the most intense 
  storms. Burn scars, urban and poor drainage areas will be 
  especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mostly VFR conditions prevail with isolated light rain showers this
morning, but VLIFR conditions in fog have developed at KROW and will
improve back to VFR between 15-17Z. An active day is expected with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms and potential for impacts at all
area TAF sites. MVFR conditions are likely with storms, although
short-lived IFR conditions are possible. The highest probabilities
for thunderstorm impacts will be at KGUP and KSAF, followed by KFMN
and KABQ/KAEG in terms of confidence rankings. Patches of MVFR or IFR
conditions in a mix of low stratus and fog are possible early
Tuesday morning given some partial clearing overnight.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another active day is in store with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms for all areas today. Drier air is forecast to result in
a down day for thunderstorms for the northern half of the state
Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms south. A storm system over
Nevada and Utah will result in an increase in thunderstorm chances
for western and central NM Wednesday and Thursday. Drier and slightly
cooler weather remains on track Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
At 00Z, the upper high was located over central CA at near 598dam at
500mb. A shortwave trough, currently over west central CO, is moving
south around the upper high circulation and will bring added
forcing, and combine with above normal PWATs, for a more robust
round of storms across our area today. Coverage will be improved
compared to yesterday, with some strong to potentially severe storms
possible. The main threat, however, will be localized flash flooding
due to locally heavy rainfall amounts between 1-2". Storm motion
will generally be toward the south. Daytime temperatures will be
cooler than yesterday's due to the added cloud cover and rain-
cooling, and will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal.

The shortwave trough will stall over southern portions of the state
Tuesday as weak ridging follows across southern CO and northern NM.
An above normal PWAT atmosphere will persist Tuesday and locally
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat given slower storm
motion and sufficient instability generated from daytime heating.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A quiet Tuesday night is forecast to give way to a rather active
weather day Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft out ahead of a closed
low over the Great Basin will combine with sufficient low level
moisture to generate an area/line of thunderstorms over western and
central NM Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers continue
over the northwest half or so of the state Wednesday night with
northwest NM the favored area for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
Breezy southwest winds will be the main result east of the central
mountain chain Thursday. Weather prediction models agree that dry
westerly flow aloft remains on tap for Friday and Saturday with
moisture and afternoon thunderstorms possibly returning to locations south
of I-40 Sunday.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for at least the next seven days. An active
Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist through at least
Wednesday, with today and Wednesday bringing the best chances for
wetting storms. A trough will progress eastward across the
Intermountain West Thursday into Friday, steering drier air and
moderate westerlies across the region and bringing a notable
downtick in thunderstorm coverage. A ridge will expand west across
the region over the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures and a
gradual increase in moisture with the return of wetting storms.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

NMZ201>241-171030-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
258 AM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
continues for much of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
Isolated strong to perhaps briefly severe storms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A relatively active monsoon pattern continues Tuesday through
Thursday with the threat for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding mainly for western and central NM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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