Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will
trnasition to a wintry mix and eventually snow Saturday morning as
colder air moves into the area behind a cold front. Gusty north
winds will also prevail behind the cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1059 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
across eastern Oklahoma late this morning. This trend will
continue into the afternoon, with severe storms and possible
tornadoes expected. Have made a few minor changes to afternoon
high temperatures, with the rest of the forecast looking good at
this time.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>063-065>076.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
     for OKZ054-055-059.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
119 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
119 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening Followed by Winter
Weather Late Tonight and Saturday Morning...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

	ICE ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
An active weather day is underway across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as a strong cold front is poised to move
through the region this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
becoming more widespread across the region early this afternoon,
and a line of thunderstorms will eventually form near or ahead of
the cold front late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather
will continue with the thunderstorms, with the potential for 70
mile an hour wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and large hail to the
size of quarters. The severe weather threat is expected to end by
around midnight. Heavy rainfall is also anticipated across the
region this afternoon into this evening with most of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas seeing 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some
locations may see over 6 inches of rain through this evening
which may lead to flash flooding. The river flood threat will also
be on the increase this afternoon and evening.

As cold air spills into the region behind the cold front, a
transition to wintry precipitation will take place with freezing
rain, sleet, and snow all possible late tonight across northeast
Oklahoma. This could lead to slick spots on area roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The wintry precipitation will continue into Saturday across
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as cold air
continues to invade the region and an upper level disturbance
moves across the region. Snowfall forecasts currently call
for 1 to 4 inches of snow north and west of Interstate 44
across northeast Oklahoma with 1 to 2 inches of snow across
northwest Arkansas and the rest of northeast Oklahoma. Lighter
snow amounts will be possible across southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas. There will also be a light accumulation of ice
across the area as well. This will likely lead to hazardous
driving conditions across the region. The wintry precipitation is
expected to end Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures on Sunday will be warm enough that any wintry travel
impacts will be relatively short lived.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts of severe weather, heavy
rain, flash flooding, and winter weather. Consider readying plans
to respond to impacts from severe thunderstorms, flooding, and
wintry weather.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
01/10/2020  E1.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     TORNADO          7 S TAHLEQUAH           35.81N 94.97W
01/10/2020                   CHEROKEE           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CONFIRMED TORNADO VIA TDS DETECTED IN RADAR DATA.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW CHEROKEE LANDING  35.79N 95.01W
01/10/2020                   CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREE DAMAGE, POSSIBLE ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
01/10/2020  E70 MPH          SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER REPORT OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 70
            MPH. ALSO REPORTED POWER POLES AND TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             2 E SILOAM SPRINGS      36.19N 94.50W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL OBSERVED EAST OF SILOAM SPRINGS OFF OF AIRPORT ROAD.

&&

JDS