Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1059 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
across eastern Oklahoma late this morning. This trend will
continue into the afternoon, with severe storms and possible
tornadoes expected. Have made a few minor changes to afternoon
high temperatures, with the rest of the forecast looking good at
this time.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>063-065>076.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
     for OKZ054-055-059.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
512 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...Severe Storms and Winter Weather Expected Through Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    Area...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    Onset...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
    Area...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    Onset...This Afternoon.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma .
	ONSET...Late Evening.

	Additional Accumulations in Later Periods.

	ICE ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
An active weather day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as a strong cold front is poised to move
through region this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
are expected to become widespread across the region by
this afternoon with a line of thunderstorms eventually
forming near the cold front and moving through the region
late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is expected
with the thunderstorms with the potential for 70 mph wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and large hail to the size of quarters.
The severe weather threat is expected to end around midnight.
Heavy rainfall is also anticipated across the region Today and
into this evening with most of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas seeing 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some locations could
see upwards of 6 inches of rain through this evening which
could lead to flash flooding. The river flood threat will
also be on the increase Today.

As cold air spills into the region behind the cold front,
a transition to wintry precipitation will take place with
freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible late tonight
across northeast Oklahoma. This could lead to slick spots
on area roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The wintry precipitation will continue into Saturday across
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as cold air
continues to invade the region and an upper level disturbance
moves across the region. Snowfall forecasts currently call
for 1 to 4 inches of snow north and west of Interstate 44
across northeast Oklahoma with 1 to 2 inches of snow across
northwest Arkansas and the remainder of northeast Oklahoma.
Lighter snow amounts will be possible across southeast Oklahoma
into west-central Arkansas. There will also be a light accumulation
of ice across the area as well. This will likely lead to hazardous
driving conditions across the region. The wintry precipitation
is expected to end late Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures on Sunday will be warm enough that any wintry travel
impacts will be relatively short lived.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts of severe weather, heavy
rain, flash flooding and winter weather. Consider readying plans to
respond to impacts from severe thunderstorms, flooding, and wintry
weather.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

OKZ054-059-101745-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND EASTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CST...

At 1058 AM CST, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Maramec to near Hallett to near Cleveland.
Movement was north at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Wynona...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Skedee...                         Pearsonia...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...
Webb City...                      Pershing...
Nelagoney...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3685 9672 3676 9610 3625 9643 3619 9660
      3622 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 202DEG 46KT 3624 9664 3624 9658 3630 9649

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

OKZ054-101745-
Osage OK-
1115 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1145 AM CST...

At 1115 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Pearsonia, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Foraker...
Pearsonia...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9617 3665 9648 3670 9664 3700 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 205DEG 48KT 3673 9652