Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tulsa, OK

730 
WWUS54 KTSA 191707
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKC001-021-191730-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
1207 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ADAIR AND EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 1207 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tahlequah,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Westville...
Watts...                          Eldon...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Baron...                          Ballard...

LAT...LON 3583 9499 3597 9500 3614 9456 3588 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 252DEG 37KT 3592 9493 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

700 
WWUS54 KTSA 191719
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKC021-191728-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
Cherokee OK-
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3614 9456 3588 9452 3585 9480 3605 9480
      3607 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 252DEG 37KT 3596 9479 

$$

OKC001-191730-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
Adair OK-
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY...

At 1218 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Proctor,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Westville...                      Watts...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Baron...                          Ballard...

LAT...LON 3614 9456 3588 9452 3585 9480 3605 9480
      3607 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 252DEG 37KT 3596 9479 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

352 
WWUS54 KTSA 191727
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKC001-191737-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
Adair OK-
1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1230 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3614 9456 3588 9452 3585 9480 3605 9480
      3607 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 252DEG 37KT 3598 9472 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Biggest concern with this
activity is damaging straight line winds, in addition to QLCS
tornadoes given the west to southwest oriented 0-3km shear vectors
from 40 to 50 kts across much of the area. The current activity
will continue to push off to the east through the day, with
additional development likely this afternoon ahead of the dryline.
Radar has already shown some signs of this development beginning
across parts of North Texas and into southeast Oklahoma within
the last hour or so. This activity, once it develops, will have a
greater potential to feature isolated supercells and some of the
higher end threat initially. Flooding potential will continue for
much of the area, especially given the rainfall totals already
seen with last night's and the ongoing activity.

The main change to the going forecast has been to retool POPs
through late afternoon, spreading higher values farther west this
afternoon. Other elements have been adjusted according to current
trends. Updates already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 647 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to continue this morning,
especially across the AR sites where rain and thunder coverage
will increase over the next few hours. Additional rain/thunder
chances toward the afternoon will be confined to SE OK and WC AR
along a sfc dryline. Gusty s-sw sfc winds will prevail for much
of the day, and then become more w-nw overnight as a cold front
moves through. VFR elements are expected at all sites from 00z on.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued Tulsa OK 235 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A persistent Omega block in the eastern Pacific will continue to
bring unsettled weather through the majority of the forecast
period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early
this morning with the potential for some redevelopment later this
afternoon across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Windy conditions behind the dryline are expected this
afternoon with gusts 40 to 45 mph across the northwest portions of
the area. This meets Wind Advisory criteria and a WA will be
issued soon. The first half of the weekend should remain largely
dry with the exception of southeast Oklahoma which may see some
precipitation on Friday. Saturday morning will likely need
frost/freeze warnings across much of the area given temps ranging
from the mid 20s to mid 30s across much of the area. The upcoming
work week looks wet with several rounds of precipitation expected.

Strong to isolated severe storms are ongoing across the CWA. These
are expected to continue through much of the early morning hours.
The low level jet will continue to strengthen until about 09Z
tonight after which the jet should begin to weaken and thus the
overall storm activity as well. In the mean time, damaging winds
gusts and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding are the
biggest concerns. Lower, but not zero, severe weather risks
include a hail and tornado threat. The severe potential may
continue to increase a little over the next few hours as 925mb
winds begin to increase. Several rounds of showers and storms,
some of which could be severe, will continue through the morning
hours.

These showers and storms should exit/diminish by mid to late
morning. A dry line will move through the area from west to east
through the late morning and afternoon/evening hours. Locations
behind the dryline will see no chances for precip while locations
ahead of the dryline will continue to see chances for
showers/storms. The best location, based on the latest CAMS
guidance, appears to be over SE OK early this afternoon. A couple of
these storms could be strong to marginally severe given favorable
dynamics and instability ahead of the dry line. As stated above,
locations behind the dryline will see gusty winds of 40 to 45mph at
times. These wind gusts are supported in a well mixed boundary layer
with the 925mb showing wind gusts in the 40 to 45mph range.

Friday will see a cold front pass through the area with surfaces
pressures beginning to increase as a result of a strong high
pressure moving into the north-central CONUS. The influence of
this strong (approximately 1040mb) high pressure will be felt
here with clearing skies Friday into Saturday and cold, light to
moderate NE winds ushering in well below normal temperatures for
this time of year. Temperatures Saturday morning are expected to
be in the 20s to near 30 from about I-40 and northward with lower
to mid 30s expected south of there. Given the greening and budding
vegetation across the area, freeze and frost headlines will
likely be warranted for Saturday morning for much of the area.

After a cool weekend, temperatures look to rebound nicely (70s by
Tuesday and Wednesday and 80s by Thursday) through the work week
next week as the aforementioned high pressure quickly moves off to
the east. Additional rounds of showers and will be possible
through the week (maybe an isolated storm or 2 as well) as we
return to a more favorable pattern for precipitation. With that
said, there really aren't any strong signals for heavy
precipitation next week which is a good sign for our rivers and
soils which will see a good amount of rain this morning from heavy
thunderstorms.

Snider

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-
     058-060>076.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1100 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
across parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with
additional development expected ahead of a dryline mid to late
afternoon primarily across areas west of Highway 75. The primary
severe weather threats will be damaging winds to 70 mph and hail
to the size of ping pong balls. However, low level shear supports
the development of rapidly developing, short duration tornadoes on
the leading edge of squall lines late this morning and possibly
into early afternoon, in addition to a limited potential for
tornado development with isolated storms this afternoon and
evening. This activity will transition east of the area during
the early to mid evening hours.

In addition to the severe weather potential, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will continue to be a concern, especially given the
saturated grounds from recent rains. A Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect for areas along and southeast of Interstate 44
through this evening.

Strong southwest winds are expected to develop across parts of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Occasional gusts near 40 mph
can be expected into early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cold air will move into the region following the passage of
tonight's cold front. Northerly winds will gust in the 25 to 30
mph range across northeast Oklahoma tomorrow behind the front. A
late season freeze is also likely to occur for a good portion of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas tomorrow night and
into Saturday morning.

A couple of upper level disturbances toward the latter part of the
weekend and into early next week will bring increasing chances for
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ002-011-191630-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-
1055 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHERN
CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1055 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southeast
of Hindsville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Huntsville...                     Marble...
Alabam...                         Dryfork...

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3612 9348 3608 9348 3602 9384
      3614 9386 3618 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 247DEG 26KT 3610 9382

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ071-191630-
McIntosh OK-
1104 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY UNTIL
1130 AM CDT...

At 1104 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Council Hill to 3 miles west of
Stidham to 3 miles west of Raiford. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Checotah...                       Rentiesville...
Stidham...                        Raiford...
Lake Eufaula State Park...        Vivian...
Pierce...                         Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 250 and
274.

LAT...LON 3555 9573 3555 9535 3546 9534 3537 9536
      3523 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 247DEG 46KT 3551 9573 3536 9576 3528 9584

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ070-191645-
Muskogee OK-
1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY
UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1117 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles east of Boynton to 4 miles west of
Rentiesville. Movement was northeast at 70 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Oktaha...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Keefeton...                       Wainwright...
Summit...

LAT...LON 3580 9551 3580 9542 3581 9540 3581 9527
      3555 9534 3555 9558 3568 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 221DEG 60KT 3566 9561 3553 9557

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ062-067-068-070-191715-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
1143 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MAYES...EAST
CENTRAL WAGONER...CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles east of Wagoner to 2 miles south of Sequoyah
State Park to 5 miles southeast of Muskogee. Movement was northeast
at 60 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Fort Gibson...                    Hulbert...
Scraper...                        Peggs...
Sequoyah State Park...            Lost City...

LAT...LON 3616 9511 3615 9481 3597 9480 3558 9538
      3580 9528 3597 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 227DEG 52KT 3595 9527 3585 9524 3569 9530

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENKS                   36.02N 95.97W
03/19/2020                   TULSA              OK   STORM CHASER

            STREET FLOODING AROUND 81ST AND ELWOOD IN JENKS

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
03/19/2020                   MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN MUSKOGEE ALONG 32ND STREET

&&

JDS