Alert archive / Oklahoma / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 35, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 19, 2020Rogers County, Tulsa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at Mar 19, 2020, 6:35 AM CDT for Rogers County, Tulsa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 61 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 19, 2020, 6:35 AM CDT (11:35 UTC)
Expired
Mar 21, 2020, 7:49 PM CDT
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK

The river

Written for the forecast point Caney River near Collinsville (CVLO2).

Action stage
26 ft
Minor stage
26 ft
Moderate stage
29 ft
Major stage
33 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07175550, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

443 
WGUS44 KTSA 191135
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-191935-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0035.200319T1135Z-200321T2000Z/
/CVLO2.1.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T1800Z.200321T1400Z.NO/
635 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Caney River near Collinsville
* until Saturday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:30 AM Thursday, the stage was 26.61 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 27.5 feet this afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage late Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. County 
  roads north of Collinsville become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$

Lacy
11 follow-up statements
344 
WGUS44 KTSA 191241
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
741 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC147-192040-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0036.200320T0600Z-200320T1800Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.200320T0600Z.200320T0600Z.200320T1200Z.NO/
741 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Caney River near Ramona
* from late tonight to Friday afternoon.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 23.76 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona is expected to rise to near 
  flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor flooding occurs. Farmlands and rural 
  roads are affected.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9580 3637 9576 3637 9584 3647 9593 3664 9593

$$

OKC131-143-192039-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0836Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T1800Z.200322T0236Z.NO/
741 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Caney River near Collinsville
* until late Saturday night.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday, the stage was 27.80 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 30.4 feet this afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage late Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the Caney River become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$

OKC113-143-192039-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0037.200319T1511Z-200320T1145Z/
/SPEO2.1.ER.200319T1511Z.200320T0000Z.200320T0545Z.NO/
741 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bird Creek near Sperry
* until Friday morning.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 19.07 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above 
  flood stage late this morning and continue to rise to near 23.4 
  feet by this evening. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage Friday before dawn.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, minor rural flooding occurs from Skiatook to 
  Turley.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9593 3620 9590 3620 9598 3640 9605

$$
224 
WGUS84 KTSA 191944
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
244 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC147-200343-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.200320T0600Z-200320T1200Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.200320T0600Z.200320T0600Z.200320T0600Z.NO/
244 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* from late tonight to Friday morning.
* At  2:00 PM Thursday, the stage was 25.44 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona is expected to rise to near 
  flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor flooding occurs. Farmlands and rural 
  roads are affected.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9580 3637 9576 3637 9584 3647 9593 3664 9593

$$

OKC131-143-200343-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T1635Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T1830Z.200322T1035Z.NO/
244 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Sunday morning.
* At  1:30 PM Thursday, the stage was 30.43 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is cresting.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville is cresting and will 
  begin falling this afternoon. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the Caney River become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
869 
WGUS84 KTSA 200122
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
822 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC147-200921-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.200320T0313Z-200320T1800Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.200320T0313Z.200320T0600Z.200320T1200Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* until Friday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:00 PM Thursday, the stage was 25.92 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona is expected to rise above 
  flood stage tonight and continue to rise to near 26.1 feet by 
  Friday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below flood stage
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor flooding occurs. Farmlands and rural 
  roads are affected.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9580 3637 9576 3637 9584 3647 9593 3664 9593

$$

OKC131-143-200921-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T1513Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200322T0913Z.NO/
822 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Sunday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:30 PM Thursday, the stage was 30.27 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the Caney River become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
605 
WGUS84 KTSA 200801
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC147-201300-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200320T1300Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.200320T0537Z.200320T0630Z.200320T0700Z.NO/
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* until this morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 AM Friday, the stage was 26.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona is near crest and 
  will fall to below flood stage by before dawn.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor flooding occurs. Farmlands and rural 
  roads are affected.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9580 3637 9576 3637 9584 3647 9593 3664 9593

$$

OKC131-143-201601-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200321T2254Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1654Z.NO/
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Saturday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:30 AM Friday, the stage was 29.61 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by late Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the main channel may become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
862 
WGUS84 KTSA 201303
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
803 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-202102-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0112Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1912Z.NO/
803 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Saturday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:30 AM Friday, the stage was 29.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the main channel may become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
987 
WGUS84 KTSA 201921
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020


...The Flood Warning has expired for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River  Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC147-201951-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200320T1900Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.200320T0537Z.200320T0830Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
221 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning has expired for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* At 2:00 PM Friday, the stage was 25.74 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall.  
  
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9580 3637 9576 3637 9584 3647 9593 3664 9593

$$

OKC131-143-210320-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0112Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1912Z.NO/
221 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Saturday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1:30 PM Friday, the stage was 28.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 28.9 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below
  flood stage early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the main channel may become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
390 
WGUS84 KTSA 210115
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
815 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-210914-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0152Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1952Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Saturday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:30 PM Friday, the stage was 28.52 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the main channel may become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
162 
WGUS84 KTSA 210715
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-211515-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200321T2336Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1736Z.NO/
215 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 28.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. County 
  roads north of Collinsville become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
044 
WGUS84 KTSA 211351
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
851 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-212150-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0000Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1800Z.NO/
851 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 27.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. County 
  roads north of Collinsville may be covered with water.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
746 
WGUS84 KTSA 211857
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
157 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-220053-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0053Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1853Z.NO/
157 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage later this afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor lowland flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$
758 
WGUS84 KTSA 220049
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
749 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC131-143-220119-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200322T0053Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.200319T1004Z.200319T2015Z.200321T1901Z.NO/
749 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 24.06 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage this afternoon.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, minor lowland flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 19, 2:35 AM CDT, 4 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 2:35 AM CDT, 4 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion ... Corrected Typo
National Weather Service
Tulsa OK 235 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A persistent Omega block in the eastern Pacific will continue to
bring unsettled weather through the majority of the forecast
period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early
this morning with the potential for some redevelopment later this
afternoon across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Windy conditions behind the dryline are expected this
afternoon with gusts 40 to 45 mph across the northwest portions of
the area. This meets Wind Advisory criteria and a WA will be
issued soon. The first half of the weekend should remain largely
dry with the exception of southeast Oklahoma which may see some
precipitation on Friday. Saturday morning will likely need
frost/freeze warnings across much of the area given temps ranging
from the mid 20s to mid 30s across much of the area. The upcoming
work week looks wet with several rounds of precipitation expected.

Strong to isolated severe storms are ongoing across the CWA. These
are expected to continue through much of the early morning hours.
The low level jet will continue to strengthen until about 09Z
tonight after which the jet should begin to weaken and thus the
overall storm activity as well. In the mean time, damaging winds
gusts and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding are the
biggest concerns. Lower, but not zero, severe weather risks
include a hail and tornado threat. The severe potential may
continue to increase a little over the next few hours as 925mb
winds begin to increase. Several rounds of showers and storms,
some of which could be severe, will continue through the morning
hours.

These showers and storms should exit/diminish by mid to late
morning. A dry line will move through the area from west to east
through the late morning and afternoon/evening hours. Locations
behind the dryline will see no chances for precip while locations
ahead of the dryline will continue to see chances for
showers/storms. The best location, based on the latest CAMS
guidance, appears to be over SE OK early this afternoon. A couple of
these storms could be strong to marginally severe given favorable
dynamics and instability ahead of the dry line. As stated above,
locations behind the dryline will see gusty winds of 40 to 45mph at
times. These wind gusts are supported in a well mixed boundary layer
with the 925mb showing wind gusts in the 40 to 45mph range.

Friday will see a cold front pass through the area with surfaces
pressures beginning to increase as a result of a strong high
pressure moving into the north-central CONUS. The influence of
this strong (approximately 1040mb) high pressure will be felt
here with clearing skies Friday into Saturday and cold, light to
moderate NE winds ushering in well below normal temperatures for
this time of year. Temperatures Saturday morning are expected to
be in the 20s to near 30 from about I-40 and northward with lower
to mid 30s expected south of there. Given the greening and budding
vegetation across the area, freeze and frost headlines will
likely be warranted for Saturday morning for much of the area.

After a cool weekend, temperatures look to rebound nicely (70s by
Tuesday and Wednesday and 80s by Thursday) through the work week
next week as the aforementioned high pressure quickly moves off to
the east. Additional rounds of showers and will be possible
through the week (maybe an isolated storm or 2 as well) as we
return to a more favorable pattern for precipitation. With that
said, there really aren't any strong signals for heavy
precipitation next week which is a good sign for our rivers and
soils which will see a good amount of rain this morning from heavy
thunderstorms.

Snider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  40  50  30 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   79  51  58  34 /  90  20  10   0
MLC   79  45  53  33 /  60  10  10   0
BVO   79  37  48  25 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   74  45  52  28 /  90  20   0   0
BYV   74  45  54  29 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   78  43  51  31 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   77  40  48  27 /  90   0   0   0
F10   79  43  51  30 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   77  51  57  37 /  70  20  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....21
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 19, 5:18 AM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
518 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
 AREA... US highway 169 and eastward with the greatest potential
over southeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET... This afternoon and evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA... Interstate 44 and southeastward.
    ONSET... Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
    ONSET... Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
 AREA... Areas along and northwest of Interstate 44.
    ONSET... Late this morning.

DISCUSSION...

Strong thunderstorms continue early this morning, but continue to
show signs of weakening as upper level dynamics that supported
isolated severe storms earlier this morning have diminished. With
that said, a flash flooding threat remains as additional rounds of
showers and storms move over already saturated soils from recent
rains.

This afternoon is expected to heat up and when combined with
favorable dynamics, a few severe storms will be possible,
especially over southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas
along an advancing dry line. These storms will be capable of
producing hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging wind gusts
up to 70 miles per hour. There is a very low, but non zero,
tornado threat for the aforementioned region as well. In addition
to the aforementioned severe threat

Winds will begin increasing late this morning behind a passing dry
line. Sustained winds will be between 15 to 25 miles per hour with
wind gusts up to 45 miles per hour at times possible. As a result,
a Wind Advisory has been issued for points along and northwest of
Interstate 44 for this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

After a fairly quiet and cold weekend where freeze/frost headlines
may be needed for Saturday morning, additional rounds of showers
and storms look to move into the area for the first half of next
week. The good news is that these showers and storms do not
appear to bring a whole lot of precipitation to the region at this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 5:26 AM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
526 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ060-064-067-191100-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
526 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 526 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Sapulpa to near Glenpool. Movement was east at 50
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Kiefer...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Tulsa International Airport...
Oneta...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 207 and 232.

LAT...LON 3602 9625 3623 9588 3620 9581 3616 9581
      3616 9573 3608 9556 3608 9558 3607 9557
      3589 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 249DEG 46KT 3601 9610 3595 9599

Lacy
Special weather statement, Mar 19, 5:49 AM CDT, 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ060>062-067-191115-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
549 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROGERS...MAYES...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
CDT...

At 548 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Catoosa to 5 miles southwest of
Inola. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Claremore...                      Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Catoosa...
Verdigris...                      Chouteau...
Inola...                          Salina...
Foyil...                          Hoot Owl...
Sportsmen Acres Community...      Taiwah...
Tiawah...                         Snowdale State Park...
Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 227 and 264.

LAT...LON 3634 9500 3630 9501 3603 9554 3612 9591
      3647 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 231DEG 39KT 3615 9577 3609 9557

Lacy
Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:05 AM CDT, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ067>070-072-074-191130-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
605 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HASKELL...NORTHWESTERN
SEQUOYAH...ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

At 604 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Sequoyah State Park to 3 miles
west of Vian. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Wagoner...                        Stilwell...
Fort Gibson...                    Westville...
Vian...                           Gore...
Okay...                           Webbers Falls...
Hulbert...                        Watts...
Oaks...                           Marble City...
Braggs...                         Brushy...
Adair State Park...               Christie...
Peggs...                          Greenleaf State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 285 and
299.

LAT...LON 3563 9447 3538 9511 3594 9542 3608 9519
      3607 9512 3612 9512 3616 9504 3616 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 238DEG 63KT 3592 9528 3550 9504

Lacy
Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:21 AM CDT, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ062-063-191145-
Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND MAYES
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 621 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles west of Pryor Creek to 4 miles southwest of
Rose. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Chouteau...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
West Siloam Springs...            Langley...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Adair...                          Spavinaw...
Disney...                         Oaks...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            Rose...
Leach...                          Chloeta...

LAT...LON 3658 9500 3618 9457 3616 9468 3616 9512
      3607 9512 3608 9527 3624 9544 3632 9543
      3651 9512 3651 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 241DEG 35KT 3628 9539 3617 9508

Lacy
Local storm report, Mar 19, 6:23 AM CDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E DRUMRIGHT           35.99N 96.46W
03/19/2020                   CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MOBILE HOME AND PROPANE SUPPY TANK FLIPPED OR DAMAGED BY
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS EAST OF DRUMRIGHT NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            HWY 33 AND 433RD WEST AVE.

&&

JDS
Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:32 AM CDT, 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ001-010-OKZ062-063-068-069-191200-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
632 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...WASHINGTON...DELAWARE...
NORTHEASTERN MAYES...ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL
700 AM CDT...

At 632 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Hoot Owl to 2 miles north of Twin Oaks to 3 miles
north of Christie to 3 miles southeast of Stilwell. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Siloam Springs...                 Stilwell...
Jay...                            Bella Vista...
Lowell...                         Grove...
Farmington...                     Prairie Grove...
Gentry...                         Elkins...
Tontitown...                      Bethel Heights...
Gravette...                       West Fork...
Lincoln...                        Cave Springs...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 49 and 93.

LAT...LON 3667 9462 3650 9462 3650 9419 3634 9410
      3597 9395 3576 9446 3576 9449 3575 9449
      3564 9475 3592 9476 3616 9499 3634 9526
      3651 9502 3651 9501 3652 9500 3667 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 234DEG 54KT 3635 9513 3624 9484 3600 9470 3577
9461

Lacy

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 8:48 PM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware70 hr
Mar 19, 12:47 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, Rogers, Tulsa3 hr
Mar 19, 12:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa and 2 more40 min
Mar 19, 1:09 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSARogers, Tulsa51 min
Mar 19, 1:17 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, Tulsa3 hr
Mar 19, 1:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Tulsa, Washington27 min
Mar 19, 1:42 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa6 hr
Mar 19, 2:01 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek, Rogers, Tulsa44 min
Mar 19, 2:05 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAAdair, Delaware42 hr
Mar 19, 2:05 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware48 hr
Mar 19, 2:05 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSACherokee66 hr
Mar 19, 2:16 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSACherokee, Delaware36 hr
Mar 19, 2:30 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Nowata, Rogers60 min
Mar 19, 2:31 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSARogers3 hr
Mar 19, 2:45 AM CDTWind AdvisoryTSANowata, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington16 hr
Mar 19, 2:50 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers3 hr
Mar 19, 3:07 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOttawa38 min
Mar 19, 5:26 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa34 min
Mar 19, 5:43 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSARogers3 hr
Mar 19, 5:49 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMayes26 min
Mar 19, 5:55 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers3 hr
Mar 19, 6:05 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAAdair, Cherokee25 min
Mar 19, 6:21 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSADelaware, Mayes24 min
Mar 19, 6:32 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAAdair, Delaware28 min
Mar 19, 7:41 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAWashington30 hr
Mar 19, 7:41 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAOsage, Tulsa23 hr
Mar 19, 7:44 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington12 hr
Mar 19, 7:44 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSATulsa2 hr
Mar 19, 8:14 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAOttawa3 days
Mar 19, 8:14 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAOttawa54 hr
Mar 19, 9:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSASequoyah33 min
Mar 19, 9:57 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSATulsa22 hr
Mar 19, 10:07 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkmulgee23 min
Mar 19, 10:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa43 min
Mar 19, 11:04 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMcIntosh26 min
Mar 19, 11:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMuskogee27 min
Mar 19, 11:20 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSAAdair, Cherokee, Creek, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes and 6 more3 hr
Mar 19, 11:21 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMcIntosh, Muskogee, Wagoner24 min
Mar 19, 11:43 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACherokee32 min
Mar 19, 12:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee27 min
Mar 19, 12:14 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Sequoyah6 hr
Mar 19, 12:21 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSACherokee, Creek, McIntosh, Mayes, Muskogee, Okfuskee and 4 more12 hr
Mar 19, 12:31 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACraig, Delaware, Ottawa3 hr
Mar 19, 2:03 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAOkmulgee7 days
Mar 19, 2:12 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAPittsburg48 min
Mar 19, 2:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMcIntosh, Pittsburg58 min
Mar 19, 2:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah3 hr
Mar 19, 3:08 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSACreek19 hr
Mar 19, 3:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAHaskell44 min
Mar 19, 3:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAHaskell46 min
Mar 19, 4:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALeFlore, Sequoyah58 min
Mar 19, 4:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALatimer24 min
Mar 19, 4:27 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAHaskell33 min
Mar 19, 4:48 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALatimer27 min
Mar 19, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAHaskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah27 min
Mar 19, 5:07 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAPushmataha23 min
Mar 19, 5:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore30 min
Mar 19, 5:25 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSASequoyah35 min
Mar 19, 5:28 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALatimer47 min
Mar 19, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALeFlore, Sequoyah43 min
Mar 19, 5:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAChoctaw28 min
Mar 19, 5:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore25 min
Mar 19, 6:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAChoctaw, Pushmataha53 min
Mar 19, 6:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore52 min
Mar 19, 6:20 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Sequoyah6 hr
Mar 19, 6:42 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore33 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.