Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1003 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...
MCS along a Pawnee to FSM line continues to push southward with
continued reports of severe weather along the line. Expanded severe
thunderstorm watch southward to include all but Pushmataha and
Choctaw Counties, which may need to be added at a later time. Very
strong instability remains in place south of the convection, and deep
layer shear remains unseasonably strong. Expect severe weather
potential to persist until after midnight, with damaging wind threat
most likely hazard as cold pool surges south, and strong embedded
cells potentially producing large hail. Adjusted forecast based on
expected convective trends remainder of the night. Isolated heavy
rainfall rates/amounts will result in some flash flooding, but we
don't believe threat is widespread enough at this time to warrant a
flash flood watch.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly north of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of I-40.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is expected to develop into northeastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening through early tonight. The primary
threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a lesser threat
of large hail. There is also a non-zero threat of isolated tornadoes
in areas closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders this evening.

A complex of severe storms is expected to develop over south central
Kansas and north central Oklahoma by early this evening, and will
move southeast across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during the evening and tonight. Very strong instability and strong
wind shear will favor organized and potentially significant severe
weather, perhaps as far south as I-40, with lesser chances to the
south. Thunderstorms will continue to push into southeastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas through late tonight.

Dangerous heat is ongoing this afternoon across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with heat index values in the 110
to 116 degree range. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for much
of the area through 9 pm this evening. Conditions will improve by
late evening as temperatures cool, and thunderstorms begin to push
into the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue to affect southeastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Sunday morning into the
afternoon, as the cold front slowly passes through the region. There
is a limited risk of severe weather with this activity.

The heat will become the main concern next week, especially Tuesday
through Friday with heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree
range across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
07/11/2020  E70 MPH          CREEK              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUST REPORTED AT MAIN AND TAFT IN SAPULPA

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND GST     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
07/11/2020  E62 MPH          SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT SALLISAW EOC

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STILWELL                35.81N 94.63W
07/11/2020                   ADAIR              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN STILWELL...TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N MULDROW             35.45N 94.60W
07/11/2020  M70 MPH          SEQUOYAH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
07/11/2020                   SEQUOYAH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE AND POWER POLE DOWN AT REDWOOD AND WHEELER

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1024 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
07/11/2020  M63 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   AWOS

            MEASURED AT OKMULGEE AIRPORT

&&

LACY