Heat Advisory 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly north of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of I-40.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is expected to develop into northeastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening through early tonight. The primary
threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a lesser threat
of large hail. There is also a non-zero threat of isolated tornadoes
in areas closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders this evening.

A complex of severe storms is expected to develop over south central
Kansas and north central Oklahoma by early this evening, and will
move southeast across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during the evening and tonight. Very strong instability and strong
wind shear will favor organized and potentially significant severe
weather, perhaps as far south as I-40, with lesser chances to the
south. Thunderstorms will continue to push into southeastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas through late tonight.

Dangerous heat is ongoing this afternoon across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with heat index values in the 110
to 116 degree range. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for much
of the area through 9 pm this evening. Conditions will improve by
late evening as temperatures cool, and thunderstorms begin to push
into the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue to affect southeastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Sunday morning into the
afternoon, as the cold front slowly passes through the region. There
is a limited risk of severe weather with this activity.

The heat will become the main concern next week, especially Tuesday
through Friday with heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree
range across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

OKZ053-120530-
Choctaw OK-
1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 1230
AM CDT...

At 1202 AM CDT, the initial strong winds from the severe
thunderstorms to the north were located along a line extending from
3 miles west of Rattan to 5 miles southeast of Oleta to 9 miles
northeast of Fort Towson. Movement was south at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Goodland...
Messer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Raymond Gary State Park...        Grant...
Ord...                            Fallon...
Swink...                          Frogville...
Speer...                          Huskey...

A severe thunderstorm warning will likely be issued for the area as
the core of the storms approach.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3387 9546 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551
      3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9557 3413 9556
      3406 9516 3394 9516 3396 9523 3394 9525
      3389 9526 3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529
      3389 9533 3387 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 357DEG 49KT 3421 9548 3412 9530 3410 9513

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

OKZ061-062-067-068-120545-
Cherokee OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROGERS...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...EASTERN WAGONER AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1209 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Chouteau, moving southeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Wagoner...
Chouteau...                       Okay...
Hulbert...                        Peggs...
Sequoyah State Park...            Sportsmen Acres Community...
Lost City...                      Mazie...
Murphy...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3598 9480 3596 9480 3581 9535 3582 9536
      3610 9551 3628 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 307DEG 44KT 3613 9537

Lacy

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