Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
701 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorm activity.
Confidence is fairly high that storms will impact the E OK and W
AR terminals at some point thru the first 12 hours of the
forecast. Maintained TEMPO groups and attempted to hit the most
favorable time windows for convection. Expect IFR conditions with
strong wind gusts from any storms tonight. Skies will clear out on
Sunday and winds will switch around to the north behind a cool
front.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

..SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...

DISCUSSION...
Dangerously hot conditions this afternoon with heat indices
currently in the 110-116 degree range. Update was sent earlier to
expand excessive heat warning, including adding far northwest
Arkansas to the heat advisory.

Next concern will be the potential for significant severe weather
this evening into the overnight hours. Storms are currently
developing this afternoon across northeast Kansas along southward
moving cold front. Thunderstorm activity will continue pushing
south, moving into northeast Oklahoma by early to mid evening
with severe weather expected.

Atmosphere will likely remain very unstable with deep layer shear
increasing to around 50 knots. This environment will initially
support semi-discrete storms, with supercell characteristics,
producing large hail. Thunderstorms will likely quickly congeal
into one or more clusters with the potential for more widespread
damaging winds in the stronger bow segments across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Greatest severe potential will be
along and north of I-40, however the remainder of the area will
also have at lest some some severe threat. Locally heavy rainfall/
flash flooding will also be possible as PWAT values remain in the
1.7-2.0 inch range. Storms should remain progressive enough however
to keep the flood threat fairly localized. Severe threat will
likely begin to diminish late tonight as storms slowly weaken/push
south of the area.

Actual cold front will be somewhat slow to move through the area
during the day Sunday. Expect hot/humid conditions to redevelop
along and south of I-40 ahead of front during the afternoon. A
few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also be possible
across southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon with FROPA.

Hot and humid conditions will likely return for much of next week
as large upper ridge shifts east into the southern Plains. Given
the recent rainfall and more expected tonight, increased NBM dew-
points through much of the extended periods with heat indices
back above 105 degrees by Tuesday through the remainder of the
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  70  93 /  70  10  10   0
FSM   74  94  70  94 /  50  20  10  10
MLC   74  96  72  93 /  50  20  10   0
BVO   71  90  68  91 /  80   0  10   0
FYV   70  90  66  90 /  70  10   0  10
BYV   70  90  65  92 /  70  10   0  10
MKO   73  92  70  92 /  50  10  10   0
MIO   70  90  67  92 /  80  10   0   0
F10   73  93  70  93 /  50  10  10   0
HHW   75  98  76  95 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
444 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly north of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of I-40.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is expected to develop into northeastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening through early tonight. The primary
threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a lesser threat
of large hail. There is also a non-zero threat of isolated tornadoes
in areas closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders this evening.

A complex of severe storms is expected to develop over south central
Kansas and north central Oklahoma by early this evening, and will
move southeast across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during the evening and tonight. Very strong instability and strong
wind shear will favor organized and potentially significant severe
weather, perhaps as far south as I-40, with lesser chances to the
south. Thunderstorms will continue to push into southeastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas through late tonight.

Dangerous heat is ongoing this afternoon across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with heat index values in the 110
to 116 degree range. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for much
of the area through 9 pm this evening. Conditions will improve by
late evening as temperatures cool, and thunderstorms begin to push
into the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue to affect southeastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Sunday morning into the
afternoon, as the cold front slowly passes through the region. There
is a limited risk of severe weather with this activity.

The heat will become the main concern next week, especially Tuesday
through Friday with heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree
range across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             HOLLOW                  36.89N 95.27W
07/11/2020  M2.00 INCH       CRAIG              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICS TAKEN AND SENT VIA TWITTER

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             GROVE                   36.59N 94.77W
07/11/2020  E1.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E ADAIR               36.44N 95.22W
07/11/2020  E70 MPH          MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ADAIR               36.44N 95.24W
07/11/2020                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN NEAR 436 AND HWY 28

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DISNEY                  36.48N 95.01W
07/11/2020                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN IN DISNEY STATE PARK

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW PYRAMID CORNERS    36.73N 95.23W
07/11/2020                   CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN BLOCKING COUNTY ROAD E200

&&

LACY