Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Chances for TSRA will mainly be confined to the KMLC and KFSM
sites this evening and into the overnight. Coverage is in question
given the stability of the environment from previous convection,
so will just include VCTS at those sites for a few hours this
evening. Otherwise, VFR elements are expected to prevail through
the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/

DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will persist across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms into next weekend.

A lot of uncertainty continues in the forecast for the next
several hours concerning whether, where, and how bad any
thunderstorm redevelopment might be in the wake of the morning
thunderstorm complex. The main outflow boundary associated with
the morning storms has pushed well south and east of the forecast
area, but clearing behind the complex relatively early in the day
across parts of eastern Oklahoma has allowed for plenty of heating
and associated destabilization. Another boundary is evident in
Oklahoma Mesonet observations extending across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, generally to the northwest of Tulsa, which could serve
as a local focus for development later this afternoon and evening
given the 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the same region on
mesoanalysis. CAM guidance has consistently shown this northern
development today, although as earlier noted, overall this
guidance has handled today's convective evolution very poorly and
as such, has been used cautiously. It is noted that recent radar
data have shown a few echoes near this boundary. Any severe
weather potential with this development would most likely be in
the form of large hail and possibly damaging wind gusts.

Farther to the south, across southeast Oklahoma, dew points in
the low to mid 70s persist and are contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg
MUCAPE near and south of the Red River. This region is most
concerning severe weather wise, as it did not see as much
convective influence outside of the boundary itself, with the
southern edge of the morning complex largely missing Pushmataha
and Choctaw counties. Recent visible satellite trends are showing
and expanding cu field across far southeast Oklahoma. Thunderstorm
development will be likely this afternoon and evening, with
coverage expected to be higher than across points farther north.
Very large hail will be possible with the strongest storms given
the high instability, with at least some damaging wind and tornado
potential as well. The bulk of this activity should wane into
early Saturday morning.

Low shower and thunderstorm chances will persist in much of the
area Saturday and into Saturday night, but overall, this should be
a lull in the activity, being between two upper level systems.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday night as southwest flow aloft develops in advance
of the approaching upper low currently located in the Pacific
Northwest. This low will be slow to approach and also slow to
leave, as it stalls across Texas, leading to our wet and stormy
pattern. Heavy rain and flooding could become an issue - both
flash flooding and mainstem river flooding - depending on where
the heaviest rains occur with each successive round of storms.
Given the uncertainties associated with this pattern, held close
to the National Blend of Models POPs and temperatures for now, but
expect at least some refinement in timing things over the next
several days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
521 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...This Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developing along the Red River near Wichita Falls
are expected to continue to develop and move east or northeast
this evening into parts of southeast Oklahoma and possibly
eventually west central Arkansas. A few severe storms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main severe
weather threat.

A few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but organized severe weather is
not expected in those areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily thunderstorm
chances, mainly from the latter part of the holiday weekend on
into the following week. While some severe weather will be
possible, flooding may become the main threat. Pockets of locally
heavy rainfall, falling on areas likely to have received previous
rounds of heavy rainfall, may begin to cause river flooding and
localized flash flooding by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOMINY                  36.41N 96.39W
05/22/2020                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE POWER POLE WAS BLOWN DOWN AS WELL AS SEVERAL LARGE
            TREES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             HOWE                    34.95N 94.64W
05/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAT