Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Tulsa, OK

351 
WWUS54 KTSA 230225
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
925 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARC131-230245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-200523T0245Z/
Sebastian AR-
925 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL SEBASTIAN COUNTY...

At 925 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Burnville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Huntington...                     Washburn...
Burnville...                      Milltown...
Arkola...                         Crossroads...
Witcherville...                   Dayton...

LAT...LON 3514 9403 3514 9414 3510 9414 3509 9419
      3508 9420 3508 9422 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3504 9423 3505 9433 3515 9434 3523 9408
      3522 9408 3520 9406 3521 9405 3516 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 249DEG 16KT 3513 9421 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Chances for TSRA will mainly be confined to the KMLC and KFSM
sites this evening and into the overnight. Coverage is in question
given the stability of the environment from previous convection,
so will just include VCTS at those sites for a few hours this
evening. Otherwise, VFR elements are expected to prevail through
the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/

DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will persist across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms into next weekend.

A lot of uncertainty continues in the forecast for the next
several hours concerning whether, where, and how bad any
thunderstorm redevelopment might be in the wake of the morning
thunderstorm complex. The main outflow boundary associated with
the morning storms has pushed well south and east of the forecast
area, but clearing behind the complex relatively early in the day
across parts of eastern Oklahoma has allowed for plenty of heating
and associated destabilization. Another boundary is evident in
Oklahoma Mesonet observations extending across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, generally to the northwest of Tulsa, which could serve
as a local focus for development later this afternoon and evening
given the 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the same region on
mesoanalysis. CAM guidance has consistently shown this northern
development today, although as earlier noted, overall this
guidance has handled today's convective evolution very poorly and
as such, has been used cautiously. It is noted that recent radar
data have shown a few echoes near this boundary. Any severe
weather potential with this development would most likely be in
the form of large hail and possibly damaging wind gusts.

Farther to the south, across southeast Oklahoma, dew points in
the low to mid 70s persist and are contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg
MUCAPE near and south of the Red River. This region is most
concerning severe weather wise, as it did not see as much
convective influence outside of the boundary itself, with the
southern edge of the morning complex largely missing Pushmataha
and Choctaw counties. Recent visible satellite trends are showing
and expanding cu field across far southeast Oklahoma. Thunderstorm
development will be likely this afternoon and evening, with
coverage expected to be higher than across points farther north.
Very large hail will be possible with the strongest storms given
the high instability, with at least some damaging wind and tornado
potential as well. The bulk of this activity should wane into
early Saturday morning.

Low shower and thunderstorm chances will persist in much of the
area Saturday and into Saturday night, but overall, this should be
a lull in the activity, being between two upper level systems.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday night as southwest flow aloft develops in advance
of the approaching upper low currently located in the Pacific
Northwest. This low will be slow to approach and also slow to
leave, as it stalls across Texas, leading to our wet and stormy
pattern. Heavy rain and flooding could become an issue - both
flash flooding and mainstem river flooding - depending on where
the heaviest rains occur with each successive round of storms.
Given the uncertainties associated with this pattern, held close
to the National Blend of Models POPs and temperatures for now, but
expect at least some refinement in timing things over the next
several days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
521 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...This Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developing along the Red River near Wichita Falls
are expected to continue to develop and move east or northeast
this evening into parts of southeast Oklahoma and possibly
eventually west central Arkansas. A few severe storms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main severe
weather threat.

A few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but organized severe weather is
not expected in those areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily thunderstorm
chances, mainly from the latter part of the holiday weekend on
into the following week. While some severe weather will be
possible, flooding may become the main threat. Pockets of locally
heavy rainfall, falling on areas likely to have received previous
rounds of heavy rainfall, may begin to cause river flooding and
localized flash flooding by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             HOWE                    34.95N 94.64W
05/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             WISTER                  34.97N 94.72W
05/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
824 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             1 E HODGEN              34.84N 94.61W
05/22/2020  E1.50 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             1 S HEAVENER            34.87N 94.60W
05/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
840 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             HEAVENER                34.89N 94.60W
05/22/2020  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

OKZ076-230215-
Le Flore OK-
840 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bokoshe, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Spiro...                          Panama...
Bokoshe...                        Shady Point...
Scullyville...                    Milton...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3510 9484 3520 9488 3521 9487 3520 9482
      3523 9481 3529 9465 3529 9463 3531 9461
      3533 9457 3531 9455 3515 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 246DEG 17KT 3516 9477