Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...a cold front stretched from Northwest Oklahoma
through Central & Northeast Kansas to a surface low over Iowa. An
additional surface low was also developing from North Central to
Southwest Oklahoma with a dryline extending southward into West
Texas. A warm front was located from the triple point with the
southern surface low through Southeast Oklahoma. In response to
these features...southerly low level flow was transporting low
level moisture into the region with upper 60s/around 70 deg
dewpoints just west of Highway 75/Indian Nations Turnpike to low
60 dewpoints in Northwest Arkansas.

Latest meso-analysis indicated the cap continuing to weaken
across the region with little to no inhibition west of Highway
75...co- located with the highest dewpoints and sfc/elevated CAPE
values in excess of 3000 J/Kg. Ongoing convection along the
southeastward moving cold front in Central Kansas is expected to
continue to build back westward along the front with additional
storm initiation forecast over the next couple of hours as the
front reaches the higher moisture/instability plume. Rapid
strengthening and development of additional convection is expected
to take place across Northeast Oklahoma into Southeast Kansas as
the front moves into the CWA. Latest short term guidance shows
the leading line of storms reaching the I-44 corridor/far
Northwest Arkansas around 00z and into Southeast Oklahoma and West
Central Arkansas a couple hours later.

Steep mid level lapse rates...ample amounts of instability along
with deep layer shear values around 50KT will allow for large
hail up to the size of baseballs and damaging winds of 70 to
locally 80 mph...as thunderstorms fill the line along the cold
front as it pushes south southeast through the CWA. Any storms
that can develop out ahead of the front and remain discrete will
have a tornado potential as well. As these discrete supercells
get ingested into the squall line along the front...embedded
supercells and/or book end vortices could allow for the tornado
potential to continue through the evening hours over the CWA.
Thus...a tornado watch will be in effect across the CWA through 11
PM this evening. Majority of the storms should be exiting the CWA
around 5-6z with the exiting cold front.

Behind the cold front...northwesterly winds transporting a drier
and cooler airmass into the region will continue into Wednesday
while the main upper level trof axis moves through and exits the
Plains. There may be a few light rain showers across Northwest
Arkansas Wednesday afternoon as the trof axis moves through the
CWA. Behind this departing system...quiet conditions are forecast
Thursday with breezy southerly winds and warming temperatures
forecast Friday into the weekend. Additional thunderstorms are
forecast to return Saturday night into the beginning of next week
in response to another frontal boundary that looks to move into
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  72  48  77 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   54  72  48  76 / 100   0   0   0
MLC   54  73  48  77 / 100   0   0   0
BVO   50  71  45  76 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   50  66  45  71 / 100  20   0   0
BYV   51  65  46  71 / 100  20   0   0
MKO   51  71  47  75 / 100   0   0   0
MIO   50  67  45  73 /  90  10   0   0
F10   51  72  48  76 / 100   0   0   0
HHW   57  73  49  76 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
105 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH WITH LARGE
HAIL POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...After 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET... After 4 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET... After 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A significant severe weather outbreak is expected across eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas this afternoon and evening.
Storms are expected to develop near the Oklahoma/Kansas border
between 4 or 5 PM this afternoon near a surface low and attendant
cold front. These storms are expected to quickly intensify to severe
limits. Early developing storms across northeast Oklahoma may
initially be quasi-discrete supercells with a tornado and
significant hail threat. Storms will quickly congeal into a squall
line by late afternoon or early evening with embedded supercells
possible within the line. A continued tornado threat will persist
along the line this evening with large hail transitioning towards
damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph possible within the stronger bow
segments.

Here is the latest timing for the expected severe weather:

Northeast Oklahoma - 4 to 8 PM.
Southeast Oklahoma - 7 to 10 PM.
Northwest Arkansas - 7 to 10 PM.
West-central Arkansas - 8 to 11 PM.

Be weather aware this afternoon and evening. Make sure you have
multiple ways to receive severe weather watch and warning
information. Be prepared to take swift action if a warning is
issued for your area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge moves into the central and southern plains on
Wednesday with dry weather expected through Saturday. Elevated wind
gusts of 30 mph are expected behind this passing cold front for
Wednesday with wind gusts also near 30 mph possible for Friday.

The next major weather maker will move into the area late Saturday
into Sunday. Early indications are that strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday in association with a
surface low pressure ejecting out onto the southern plains. This
is still a ways out and a lot can change between now and then.
Stay tuned for updated information.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
356 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

OKZ054-282115-
Osage OK-
356 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Kaw Lake, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm. This storm will likely continue to strengthen and
become severe at any time.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Webb City...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9652 3681 9643 3677 9679 3678 9679
      3678 9675 3696 9675 3700 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 255DEG 38KT 3685 9678