River Flood Warning 53, NWS Tulsa, OK

192 
WGUS84 KTSA 290041
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
741 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County. 
  
OKC079-290840-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0053.200430T0022Z-200501T0249Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.200430T0022Z.200430T1200Z.200430T2049Z.NO/
741 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Poteau River near Panama.
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday, the stage was 20.68 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama is expected to rise above 
  flood stage Wednesday evening and continue to rise to near 30.7 
  feet by Thursday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood
  stage Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. Williams 
  Road east of Panama is flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462 3521 9470

$$

709 
WGUS84 KTSA 290807
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County. 
  
OKC079-291606-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0053.200430T0022Z-200501T0249Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.200430T0022Z.200430T1200Z.200430T2049Z.NO/
307 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Poteau River near Panama.
* from this evening to Thursday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  2:30 AM Wednesday, the stage was 21.86 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama is expected to rise above 
  flood stage this evening and continue to rise to near 30.7 feet by 
  Thursday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. Williams 
  Road east of Panama is flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462 3521 9470

$$

681 
WGUS84 KTSA 291329
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
829 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County. 
  
OKC079-291359-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200501T0249Z/
/PANO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
829 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Poteau River near Panama.
* At  7:30 AM Wednesday, the stage was 23.65 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Poteau River near Panama will crest below flood 
  stage at 27.3 feet Thursday before dawn.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. Williams 
  Road east of Panama is flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462 3521 9470

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main aviation concern will be line of strong/severe thunderstorms
that will move into NE OK by late afternoon, sweeping across
SE OK/NW AR this evening. TEMPO LIFR conditions will be likely
with very heavy rain/gusty winds at least in the 30 to 45 knot
range as squall line moves through. Skies will clear from north
to south this evening. VFR conditions likely overnight with
gusty northwest winds behind cold front into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020/

..UPDATE...

..SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
High temperatures were raised a degree or two for this afternoon,
otherwise overall forecast on track with no major changes.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop by mid/late afternoon
across northeast Oklahoma ahead of approaching frontal boundary.
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including very large
hail with any initial/discrete supercell development. Storms will
quickly become more linear with time by late afternoon/early
evening with the potential for embedded supercell structures/QLCS
tornadoes/damaging winds as low level wind fields begin to increase.
Storms will sweep south of the Red River by late evening with the
severe threat ending.

Update out shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
105 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH WITH LARGE
HAIL POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...After 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET... After 4 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET... After 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A significant severe weather outbreak is expected across eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas this afternoon and evening.
Storms are expected to develop near the Oklahoma/Kansas border
between 4 or 5 PM this afternoon near a surface low and attendant
cold front. These storms are expected to quickly intensify to severe
limits. Early developing storms across northeast Oklahoma may
initially be quasi-discrete supercells with a tornado and
significant hail threat. Storms will quickly congeal into a squall
line by late afternoon or early evening with embedded supercells
possible within the line. A continued tornado threat will persist
along the line this evening with large hail transitioning towards
damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph possible within the stronger bow
segments.

Here is the latest timing for the expected severe weather:

Northeast Oklahoma - 4 to 8 PM.
Southeast Oklahoma - 7 to 10 PM.
Northwest Arkansas - 7 to 10 PM.
West-central Arkansas - 8 to 11 PM.

Be weather aware this afternoon and evening. Make sure you have
multiple ways to receive severe weather watch and warning
information. Be prepared to take swift action if a warning is
issued for your area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge moves into the central and southern plains on
Wednesday with dry weather expected through Saturday. Elevated wind
gusts of 30 mph are expected behind this passing cold front for
Wednesday with wind gusts also near 30 mph possible for Friday.

The next major weather maker will move into the area late Saturday
into Sunday. Early indications are that strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday in association with a
surface low pressure ejecting out onto the southern plains. This
is still a ways out and a lot can change between now and then.
Stay tuned for updated information.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.