River Flood Warning 72, NWS Tulsa, OK

282 
WGUS84 KTSA 262009
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...Oklahoma...

  Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties. 
  
ARC033-OKC135-262039-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200527T0240Z/
/VBRA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
309 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* At 2:47 PM Tuesday, the stage was 399.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 400.9 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 397.8 feet by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 399.0 feet, faster flows are expected along the river 
  but no flooding occurs. Interests near the river, Tailwater Park, 
  and the recreational vehicle campground should continue to monitor 
  later forecasts.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3554 9437 3542 9437 3542 9442 3554 9452

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cool and fairly saturated boundary layer from the recent rains
will yield MVFR and spotty IFR cigs this morning. Expect improving
conditions back to VFR by this afternoon. Best chance for
afternoon and evening storms will be at KMLC and KFSM. Storm
chances may linger thru the night over NW AR as upper low spins
overhead. Guidance was hitting fog potential hard tonight. I'm a
bit skeptical at this point given persistent cloud cover with
nearby upper low so will stay conservative for now.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Surface low continued to lift northward across far Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. Majority of
the ongoing showers had also lifted into Kansas and Missouri with
some light to moderate rainfall still occurring on the north and
east side of the low. Recent hourly rainfall rates have generally
been less than a quarter of an inch and thus...have let the
current flash flood watch go early as additional flash flooding
potentials are not anticipated.

Through this afternoon...the surface low will continue its
northward push into the Central Plains while at the same time
another upper level low...currently centered over Western
Kansas...drops southward into the region. Some scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning
across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as precip wraps
around the surface low. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development will also be possible this afternoon into tonight as
the upper low settles into the region and stalls. Greater
potential looks to be across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas. Marginal instability combined with forecast deep layer
shear values less than 35KT will allow for severe weather
potentials to not be expected today. Also this afternoon...with
continued cloud cover...temps today look to warm into the low/mid
70s for most locations.

Tonight through Thursday...the upper low is progged to become a
closed cut off low with the center of the low now forecast to be
positioned over Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas by Thursday.
In response...additional rounds of shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue across the CWA. The greater chances look to
be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon as the upper low
moves overhead of the CWA. With the low centered over the
CWA...weak mid/upper level flow is forecast which should aid in
limiting overall severe potentials for the week. Also...with the
low stalling over the CWA...the greater low level moisture
vectors look to shift eastward before wrapping around the low.
This should keep some of the additional rainfall amounts from
getting too much out of control...with additional amounts
generally in the half inch to locally near 2 inches possible by
the end of the week.

Thursday night and Friday...an upper level trof axis is forecast
to push east southeast out of Central Canada through the
Plains/MidWest with a trailing cold front progged to push into the
CWA during the day Friday. Latest model solutions continue to
indicate that as this system approaches...the cut off low finally
begins to weaken and gets a push eastward...exiting the region
Friday ahead of the cold front. This should finally put an end to
the multiple day rain event ongoing over the CWA. Will continue
with shower and thunderstorm chances during the day Friday ahead
of the front with clearing skies forecast Friday night into the
weekend.

Behind the departing upper level low...extended model solutions
show more of a summer time type pattern with a ridge of high
pressure setting up over the Southern/Central Plains. This will
allow for drier conditions and warm temps to make it back into
the region with highs in the upper 80s possible early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  77  62 /  20  20  60  50
FSM   77  64  76  62 /  40  50  80  40
MLC   75  61  76  60 /  50  20  60  40
BVO   73  59  76  61 /  30  20  50  40
FYV   75  63  73  59 /  40  40  80  40
BYV   75  63  73  59 /  40  50  80  40
MKO   74  62  75  61 /  30  30  70  50
MIO   73  61  75  60 /  50  20  70  40
F10   74  61  76  60 /  30  20  60  50
HHW   75  61  77  61 /  50  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning as a
surface low pressure lifts north of the region. Additional shower
and thunderstorm chances will become possible this afternoon and
evening in response to an upper level low pressure system dropping
southward into the region. The greater thunderstorm potential
this afternoon and evening looks to be across Southeast Oklahoma
into West Central Arkansas. Marginal instability over the region
should limit overall severe potentials... and thus severe weather
is not anticipated today.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The upper level low pressure system is forecast to stall across
the region through Thursday before exiting ahead of a cold front
Friday. This will allow for continued multiple rounds of shower
and thunderstorm chances through the end of the work week and
finally tapering off behind the cold front. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible through the week. Once the low pressure system
exits the region...a ridge of high pressure looks to set up over
the weekend into the start of next week which will allow for
warming temperatures and drier conditions.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.