Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Topeka, KS

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
823 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSC143-250145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200525T0145Z/
Ottawa-
823 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

At 822 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tescott, 
moving north at 10 mph. A second severe thunderstorm was located 2 
miles northeast of Culver, moving north at 10 mph. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Tescott and Culver. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9793 3914 9761 3896 9763 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 195DEG 10KT 3900 9789 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
830 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSC143-250145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200525T0145Z/
Ottawa-
830 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

At 830 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tescott, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tescott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9793 3914 9777 3898 9781 3898 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 191DEG 8KT 3900 9789 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
845 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSC143-250155-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200525T0145Z/
Ottawa-
845 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3914 9793 3914 9777 3898 9781 3898 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 189DEG 11KT 3904 9788 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

20Z water vapor and profiler data shows an MCV lifting north across
northeast KS. This has sparked a line of convection along an old
outflow boundary. As the MCV continues to move north, the storms
will also move north into NEB. Meanwhile an upper low was noted over
northern WY with a trough axis extending south to NM.

The expectation for tonight is there to be a pause in storms once
the line moves north of the area. Redevelopment should take place
along a cold front that was located from south central NEB to
southwest KS as the low level jet increases overnight. Overall deep
layer shear is somewhat modest so storm mode if expected to be multi
cellular with a hail and winds risk. The very moist airmass with
precipital water values around 1.5 inches will continue to support
very heavy rainfall as well. So will keep the flash flood watch as
is. The main question tonight is how far east storms will progress
overnight. CAMs are showing storms remaining mainly across north
central KS with little forcing to push storms east as the pattern
becomes more meridional. So have backed off on POPs overnight across
eastern KS. Lows tonight will remain a challenge based on where
convection develops. Have stayed close to the consensus with lower
60s west to the mid 60s east.

For Monday and Monday night, the consensus is for the frontal
boundary to set up across the forecast area with a meridional pattern
persisting, Scattered to numerous showers and storms should develop
along this boundary in the afternoon and evening as weak
perturbations lift north. Models show quite a bit less instability
developing for Monday with lapse rates around 6 C/km and clouds
limiting insolation. So it is uncertain whether severe weather could
develop. Areas in far east central KS (Anderson CO) will be the area
most at risk since clouds may be slow to move that far east and
there could be better destabilization. Highs should be cooler with
clouds and precip keeping readings in the 70s for the most part.
Precip should wane overnight as instability becomes less prominent.
A northwest wind bringing in some cooler air should lower temps into
the mid 50s and lower 60s by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

For Tuesday through Friday, a closed low is still forecast to
remain over the southern plains, or just south of the forecast
area. As long as this feature persists, there will be some chance
for showers and storms. Although risk for severe weather looks
limited since we should remain on the cooler side with little
chance for deep moisture return this far north. Highs should
continue to be in the 70s with lows around 60. By the weekend,
models show heights rising with the closed low either being
reabsorbed into the westerlies of drifting further south over the
Rio Grand valley. With differences in the synoptic patterns
between the GFS and ECMWF, confidence is blow average. But it
looks like we should be drying out towards the end of the week or
by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Will keep VFR conditions at TAF sites until after 5Z when more
widespread t-storms should move east across MHK and eventually at
TOP and FOE after 6Z. Best coverage appears to be 6z to 10z then
scattered nature thereafter. It looks as though scattered showers
and storms will persist through the day Monday as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>039-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
443 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252145-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
443 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop generally after 9 pm
across north central Kansas. There remains a chance for severe
weather with large hail and damaging winds the main concern for
areas generally west of a Council Grove to Marysville line.
Locally heavy rainfall also remains possible and a flash flood
watch is posted until Monday evening for areas along and west of
a line from Emporia to Topeka.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. There is a small potential for some hail or damaging
winds across far east central Kansas in the afternoon.

Rain chances may continue well into the week. The multiple
rounds of rain will increase the risk for flooding. Those with
interests near rivers or flood prone areas should pay attention to
the forecast and be ready to act if the water starts to rise.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters probably will not be needed through tonight since storms
are expected after dark.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
212 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ054-055-058-241945-
Coffey-Lyon-Osage-
212 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...WESTERN
COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Gridley, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Lebo, Waverly, New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho
Rapids, Beto Junction and John Redmond Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 140 and 160.

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9604 3844 9602 3845 9557
      3804 9585 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 202DEG 38KT 3813 9597

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
229 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ010-011-242000-
Nemaha-Marshall-
229 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND EAST
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centralia, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Centralia, Vermillion and Baileyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3967 9607 3963 9625 3977 9639 3988 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 164DEG 11KT 3971 9619

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
231 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ010-011-242000-
Nemaha-Marshall-
231 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEMAHA AND CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Sabetha to 3 miles
northeast of Blue Rapids. Movement was west at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Seneca, Blue Rapids, Axtell, Beattie, Bern, Summerfield
and Baileyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3998 9579 3992 9579 3965 9667 3977 9681
      3984 9680 4000 9633 4000 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 110DEG 18KT 3996 9584 3971 9661

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MARYSVILLE          39.85N 96.65W
05/24/2020  M2.01 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS
            THAN AN HOUR. STILL RAINING.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MARYSVILLE              39.85N 96.64W
05/24/2020  M2.40 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL SPRINKLING, BUT MOSTLY DONE RAINING.

&&

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
737 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ034-250115-
Ottawa-
737 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Culver, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Tescott and Culver.

LAT...LON 3912 9793 3912 9754 3896 9759 3896 9792
      3899 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 185DEG 10KT 3888 9776

Omitt