Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1132 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

20Z water vapor and profiler data shows an MCV lifting north across
northeast KS. This has sparked a line of convection along an old
outflow boundary. As the MCV continues to move north, the storms
will also move north into NEB. Meanwhile an upper low was noted over
northern WY with a trough axis extending south to NM.

The expectation for tonight is there to be a pause in storms once
the line moves north of the area. Redevelopment should take place
along a cold front that was located from south central NEB to
southwest KS as the low level jet increases overnight. Overall deep
layer shear is somewhat modest so storm mode if expected to be multi
cellular with a hail and winds risk. The very moist airmass with
precipital water values around 1.5 inches will continue to support
very heavy rainfall as well. So will keep the flash flood watch as
is. The main question tonight is how far east storms will progress
overnight. CAMs are showing storms remaining mainly across north
central KS with little forcing to push storms east as the pattern
becomes more meridional. So have backed off on POPs overnight across
eastern KS. Lows tonight will remain a challenge based on where
convection develops. Have stayed close to the consensus with lower
60s west to the mid 60s east.

For Monday and Monday night, the consensus is for the frontal
boundary to set up across the forecast area with a meridional pattern
persisting, Scattered to numerous showers and storms should develop
along this boundary in the afternoon and evening as weak
perturbations lift north. Models show quite a bit less instability
developing for Monday with lapse rates around 6 C/km and clouds
limiting insolation. So it is uncertain whether severe weather could
develop. Areas in far east central KS (Anderson CO) will be the area
most at risk since clouds may be slow to move that far east and
there could be better destabilization. Highs should be cooler with
clouds and precip keeping readings in the 70s for the most part.
Precip should wane overnight as instability becomes less prominent.
A northwest wind bringing in some cooler air should lower temps into
the mid 50s and lower 60s by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

For Tuesday through Friday, a closed low is still forecast to
remain over the southern plains, or just south of the forecast
area. As long as this feature persists, there will be some chance
for showers and storms. Although risk for severe weather looks
limited since we should remain on the cooler side with little
chance for deep moisture return this far north. Highs should
continue to be in the 70s with lows around 60. By the weekend,
models show heights rising with the closed low either being
reabsorbed into the westerlies of drifting further south over the
Rio Grand valley. With differences in the synoptic patterns
between the GFS and ECMWF, confidence is blow average. But it
looks like we should be drying out towards the end of the week or
by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Complex of t-storms will gradually shift east with time overnight
so will reduce VIS conds with the t-storms but confidence is low
in how far east the main area of t-storms will get/worst VIS
conds. Problem for tomorrow is trying to time additional showers
and t-storms which is too difficult to do at this time so will
leave VCTS as is.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>039-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
443 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252145-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
443 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop generally after 9 pm
across north central Kansas. There remains a chance for severe
weather with large hail and damaging winds the main concern for
areas generally west of a Council Grove to Marysville line.
Locally heavy rainfall also remains possible and a flash flood
watch is posted until Monday evening for areas along and west of
a line from Emporia to Topeka.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. There is a small potential for some hail or damaging
winds across far east central Kansas in the afternoon.

Rain chances may continue well into the week. The multiple
rounds of rain will increase the risk for flooding. Those with
interests near rivers or flood prone areas should pay attention to
the forecast and be ready to act if the water starts to rise.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters probably will not be needed through tonight since storms
are expected after dark.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1035 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ESE GRANDVIEW PLAZA   38.98N 96.66W
05/24/2020                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED A WATER RESCUE AT HUMBOLDT CREEK
            ON ZUMBRUNN ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1049 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ022-034>038-250445-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Dickinson-Riley-Ottawa-Morris-
1049 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON...GEARY...SOUTHEASTERN
RILEY...NORTHERN MORRIS...WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1048 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Brookville to 4 miles northeast of Admire.
Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Junction City, Abilene, Minneapolis, Alma, Eskridge, Grandview Plaza,
Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, Bennington, White City, Alta Vista,
Tescott, Dwight, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico, Woodbine, Culver and
Wells.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 345.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and flash
flood warnings have already been issued. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9793 3906 9595 3874 9595 3872 9737
      3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 134DEG 19KT 3878 9785 3869 9605

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ021>023-035>038-250530-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Clay-Pottawatomie-Dickinson-Riley-Morris-
1147 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON...GEARY...SOUTHERN
RILEY...NORTHERN MORRIS...WESTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Abilene, moving east at 20 mph. A line of strong thunderstorms
extends eastward into Wabaunsee county, and is moving slowly
northward near 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Abilene, Wamego, Herington, Alma, Ogden,
Grandview Plaza, Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, St. George, White
City, Milford, Alta Vista, Hope, Dwight, McFarland, Woodbine and
Manchester.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 330.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Flash flood warnings are in effect for portions of the
area.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 9737 3932 9638 3885 9611 3861 9694
      3861 9737 3893 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 248DEG 26KT 3892 9718

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW CHAPMAN           38.96N 97.06W
05/24/2020                   DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROADWAY ALONG OLD
            HIGHWAY 40 BETWEEN OAT AND QUAIL ROADS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

KSZ022-023-038-250600-
Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Riley-
1228 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
WABAUNSEE AND CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1228 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. George, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wamego, Westmoreland, St. George and Louisville.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 319 and 320.

LAT...LON 3909 9623 3906 9646 3943 9659 3947 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 171DEG 25KT 3916 9636

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE MOONLIGHT         39.03N 97.03W
05/24/2020  M6.19 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CHPK1 4.3 N CHAPMAN.

&&