Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Topeka, KS

806 
WWUS53 KTOP 150344
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1044 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSC031-111-139-150400-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-200515T0400Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
1044 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...COFFEY AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 1043 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Beto Junction to near New Strawn to 6 miles east
of Madison, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Tree and power line damage has 
         been reported in Lyon County.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Burlington, Lyndon, Lebo, Waverly, Olpe, New Strawn,
Quenemo, Melvern, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho Rapids, Olivet, Beto
Junction, John Redmond Reservoir, Melvern Lake and Le Roy.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 167.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 128.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9636 3844 9635 3844 9593
      3867 9574 3862 9551 3804 9553 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 270DEG 29KT 3844 9570 3824 9572 3810 9603 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Southwest to nearly zonal flow is occurring across the state as of
20Z ahead of a shortwave trough in the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, circulation associated with the low can be seen in west
central KS on satellite with a small break in the cumulus field
along the frontal boundary, which is currently located along a line
from Abilene to Seneca. Temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s area-wide with dew points in the 60s. Eastern KS is still
under a cap, but this should continue to erode the rest of the
afternoon with the current conditions allowing plenty of
destabilization for storms late this afternoon into tonight.

The surface front should slowly progress eastward with CAMs
consistently showing storms initiating between Topeka and Emporia on
the leading edge of the boundary, most likely within the 21-23Z time
frame. RAP forecast soundings have shown CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in
areas along and southeast of the current boundary with shear of 25-
40 kts. The shear looks strongest after 00Z when the LLJ strengthens
to 35-40 kts. That being said, storm mode looks messy with
supercells possible initially before outflow boundaries develop and
storms congeal into a line and slowly move southeast. Hodographs
continue to show good veering in the low levels, so a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out with supercells; however, the initially weaker 0-
6 km shear makes this threat more questionable. Large hail and
damaging winds will be a good possibility with steep mid-level lapse
rates. The HRRR has been consistent in keeping a strong line of
storms in east central KS late this evening and potentially
lingering into the overnight hours along the southern border of the
CWA. This is also consistent with models bringing the boundary south
of the area by 12Z, which is slower than indicated yesterday. Based
on this, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon and
Osage Counties. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts are still possible in this area through Friday morning.

Storms should dissipate by sunrise Friday morning with some clearing
in northern KS while east central areas likely stay cloudy. The
front appears to move back north again very slightly into the far
southeastern counties of the CWA during the day. An additional round
of storms is possible in this area perhaps in the late afternoon,
but more so by the evening and overnight hours. The NAM tends to
keep the area dry until early Saturday whereas the EC/GFS start to
bring precipitation into the area late in the afternoon. Some
uncertainty in severe weather potential exists due to this
difference in the models, although forecast soundings do show MUCAPE
up to 1200-1500 J/kg and shear up to 40 kts, which would support
elevated storms capable of hail and wind hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

The surface boundary will continue to slowly push back north into
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still possible on and off
for much of the day. The better upper level support arrives with a
more amplified trough moving across the Northern Plains as well as a
southern stream trough across TX. No severe weather is expected at
this time, but additional rainfall could exacerbate flooding in
areas that already receive heavy rainfall tonight.

Dry weather returns by Sunday as an amplified ridge moves across the
area ahead of a deep trough coming onshore from the Pacific.
Temperatures will warm well into the 80s by midweek before the next
chance of rain next Thursday, although model differences keep low
confidence in this at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a sfc boundary at issuance
time. Storms are expected to be near or impact terminals for the
first few hours of this period, before moving south of sites late
this evening/early tonight. Winds shift behind the boundary to the
north and northeast tonight, and will then become predominately
easterly tomorrow. Additionally, a few hours of MVFR CIGS are
possible during the morning hours at the TOP airports, but VFR
should prevail at KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ040-054>056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Picha
LONG TERM...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop between 4-6 pm this
afternoon somewhere over east central and northeast Kansas, or
generally along a line from Emporia to Atchison. Severe storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.
Very heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. The
thunderstorms are likely to persist into the evening and may even
linger into the early morning hours across east central Kansas, or
generally along and south of Interstate 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday night into
Saturday. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms
with hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Rainfall through
Saturday could exacerbate flooding for areas that receive heavy
rain tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon into tonight.

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over one inch
to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
938 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             2 N COUNCIL GROVE       38.69N 96.49W
05/14/2020  E1.00 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S WHITING             39.56N 95.61W
05/14/2020                   JACKSON            KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLASH FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED NEAR THE
            TOWN OF WHITING. WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE
            ROADWAYS.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
957 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     HAIL             3 N COUNCIL GROVE       38.70N 96.50W
05/14/2020  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S ESKRIDGE            38.80N 96.11W
05/14/2020                   WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             6 NE ADMIRE             38.68N 96.00W
05/14/2020  U1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1007 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ012-024-150400-
Brown-Jackson-
1007 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN
BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kickapoo Reservation, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Horton, Everest, Robinson, Whiting, Netawaka, Powhattan, Willis and
Kickapoo Reservation.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9556 3957 9556 3956 9557
      3953 9579 3974 9579 3989 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 247DEG 20KT 3969 9566

Baerg