Tornado Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

183 
WWUS53 KTOP 150310
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1010 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSC031-111-139-150330-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200515T0330Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
1010 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...
    
At 1010 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Osage
City to near Neosho Rapids, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Osage City and Lebo around 1020 PM CDT.
  Lyndon and Melvern Lake around 1030 PM CDT.
  Olivet around 1035 PM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 142 and 154.
 Kansas Turnpike near mile marker 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9560 3834 9579 3843 9605 3872 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 265DEG 27KT 3867 9589 3841 9598 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Skow

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1021 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSC111-150330-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200515T0330Z/
Lyon-
1021 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3840 9595 3845 9595 3865 9589 3865 9564
      3834 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 299DEG 32KT 3864 9582 3848 9578 3838 9587 

$$

KSC031-139-150330-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200515T0330Z/
Osage-Coffey-
1021 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTIES...
    
At 1020 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from Osage City to Melvern Lake
to near Lebo, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Olivet around 1025 PM CDT.
  Lyndon around 1035 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 144 and 154.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 9595 3845 9595 3865 9589 3865 9564
      3834 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 299DEG 32KT 3864 9582 3848 9578 3838 9587 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Skow

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1031 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSC031-139-150341-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200515T0330Z/
Osage-Coffey-
1031 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN COFFEY
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appear capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3840 9595 3845 9595 3865 9589 3865 9564
      3834 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 302DEG 27KT 3861 9576 3845 9572 3835 9581 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Southwest to nearly zonal flow is occurring across the state as of
20Z ahead of a shortwave trough in the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, circulation associated with the low can be seen in west
central KS on satellite with a small break in the cumulus field
along the frontal boundary, which is currently located along a line
from Abilene to Seneca. Temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s area-wide with dew points in the 60s. Eastern KS is still
under a cap, but this should continue to erode the rest of the
afternoon with the current conditions allowing plenty of
destabilization for storms late this afternoon into tonight.

The surface front should slowly progress eastward with CAMs
consistently showing storms initiating between Topeka and Emporia on
the leading edge of the boundary, most likely within the 21-23Z time
frame. RAP forecast soundings have shown CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in
areas along and southeast of the current boundary with shear of 25-
40 kts. The shear looks strongest after 00Z when the LLJ strengthens
to 35-40 kts. That being said, storm mode looks messy with
supercells possible initially before outflow boundaries develop and
storms congeal into a line and slowly move southeast. Hodographs
continue to show good veering in the low levels, so a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out with supercells; however, the initially weaker 0-
6 km shear makes this threat more questionable. Large hail and
damaging winds will be a good possibility with steep mid-level lapse
rates. The HRRR has been consistent in keeping a strong line of
storms in east central KS late this evening and potentially
lingering into the overnight hours along the southern border of the
CWA. This is also consistent with models bringing the boundary south
of the area by 12Z, which is slower than indicated yesterday. Based
on this, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon and
Osage Counties. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts are still possible in this area through Friday morning.

Storms should dissipate by sunrise Friday morning with some clearing
in northern KS while east central areas likely stay cloudy. The
front appears to move back north again very slightly into the far
southeastern counties of the CWA during the day. An additional round
of storms is possible in this area perhaps in the late afternoon,
but more so by the evening and overnight hours. The NAM tends to
keep the area dry until early Saturday whereas the EC/GFS start to
bring precipitation into the area late in the afternoon. Some
uncertainty in severe weather potential exists due to this
difference in the models, although forecast soundings do show MUCAPE
up to 1200-1500 J/kg and shear up to 40 kts, which would support
elevated storms capable of hail and wind hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

The surface boundary will continue to slowly push back north into
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still possible on and off
for much of the day. The better upper level support arrives with a
more amplified trough moving across the Northern Plains as well as a
southern stream trough across TX. No severe weather is expected at
this time, but additional rainfall could exacerbate flooding in
areas that already receive heavy rainfall tonight.

Dry weather returns by Sunday as an amplified ridge moves across the
area ahead of a deep trough coming onshore from the Pacific.
Temperatures will warm well into the 80s by midweek before the next
chance of rain next Thursday, although model differences keep low
confidence in this at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a sfc boundary at issuance
time. Storms are expected to be near or impact terminals for the
first few hours of this period, before moving south of sites late
this evening/early tonight. Winds shift behind the boundary to the
north and northeast tonight, and will then become predominately
easterly tomorrow. Additionally, a few hours of MVFR CIGS are
possible during the morning hours at the TOP airports, but VFR
should prevail at KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ040-054>056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Picha
LONG TERM...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop between 4-6 pm this
afternoon somewhere over east central and northeast Kansas, or
generally along a line from Emporia to Atchison. Severe storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.
Very heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. The
thunderstorms are likely to persist into the evening and may even
linger into the early morning hours across east central Kansas, or
generally along and south of Interstate 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday night into
Saturday. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms
with hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Rainfall through
Saturday could exacerbate flooding for areas that receive heavy
rain tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon into tonight.

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over one inch
to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
816 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             4 NW DUNLAP             38.61N 96.42W
05/14/2020  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
819 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             7 SSW ENTERPRISE        38.80N 97.15W
05/14/2020  E1.25 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY QUARTER-SIZE HAIL, SOME HALF-DOLLAR.
            LASTED ABOUT 3-4 MINUTES.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
830 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNW BUSHONG           38.67N 96.28W
05/14/2020                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD EXTENDING DOWNWARD FROM WALL
            CLOUD.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
923 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ011-012-024-150300-
Brown-Jackson-Nemaha-
923 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
NEMAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goff, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Horton, Wetmore, Corning, Netawaka, Soldier, Goff, Powhattan and
Kickapoo Reservation.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3965 9550 3965 9556 3963 9557 3952 9599
      3966 9608 3979 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 251DEG 19KT 3963 9591

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
929 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TORNADO          8 S COUNCIL GROVE       38.55N 96.53W
05/14/2020                   MORRIS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
938 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             2 N COUNCIL GROVE       38.69N 96.49W
05/14/2020  E1.00 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP