Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 489

September 15, 2020Baldwin County, Mobile County, Alabama; 13 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 15, 2020, 6:45 AM CDT for Baldwin County, Mobile County, Alabama; 13 counties in Florida. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 15, 2020, 6:45 AM CDT (11:45 UTC)
Expired
Sep 15, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
10%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
20%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 10:54 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTAEBay31 hr
Sep 15, 12:27 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTAEWalton22 hr
Sep 15, 3:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMOBBaldwin8 hr
Sep 15, 3:56 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTAEBay, Holmes, Walton, Washington30 hr
Sep 15, 4:36 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa7 hr
Sep 15, 5:09 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMOBMobile8 hr
Sep 15, 5:49 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMOBBaldwin5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2020-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 288 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2020-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
288 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
831 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

686 
WWUS20 KWNS 151142
SEL9  
SPC WW 151142
ALZ000-FLZ000-CWZ000-152300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwestern Alabama
  Florida Panhandle
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 640 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible

SUMMARY...The tornado threat with Hurricane Sally will increase in
immediate coastal areas through the remainder of the morning.  The
threat then should shift gradually northward/inland this afternoon,
as Sally's center very slowly approaches landfall, based on the
National Hurricane Center forecast.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Mobile AL to 45
miles east of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 12045.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 6:17 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Geneva, Mobile2 hr
Sep 15, 10:15 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Mobile3 hr
Sep 15, 2:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Escambia, Mobile119 min
Sep 15, 5:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia2 hr
Sep 15, 5:48 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin12 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2020Tornado Watches in Alabama, 2020Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.