Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 35

March 2, 20206 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 2, 2020, 5:21 PM CST for 6 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 2, 2020, 5:21 PM CST (23:21 UTC)
Expired
Mar 3, 2020, 1:00 AM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 81 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Newton County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

45 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 2, 5:39 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark45 min
Mar 2, 5:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFShannon44 min
Mar 2, 5:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHMassac, Pope37 min
Mar 2, 5:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDent, Shannon, Texas46 min
Mar 2, 6:04 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell56 min
Mar 2, 6:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHButler, Carter, Wayne40 min
Mar 2, 6:14 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHButler, Carter, Wayne46 min
Mar 2, 6:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCaldwell, Crittenden, Livingston, Lyon49 min
Mar 2, 6:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFShannon17 min
Mar 2, 6:53 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHWayne52 min
Mar 2, 7:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCaldwell, Christian, Hopkins47 min
Mar 2, 7:17 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOregon58 min
Mar 2, 7:20 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHCaldwell, Christian, Trigg40 min
Mar 2, 7:28 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHBollinger, Stoddard, Wayne47 min
Mar 2, 7:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHWayne33 min
Mar 2, 7:55 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHChristian, Hopkins35 min
Mar 2, 8:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton28 min
Mar 2, 8:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHAlexander, Union38 min
Mar 2, 8:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Scott, Stoddard52 min
Mar 2, 8:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Oregon26 min
Mar 2, 8:12 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHCape Girardeau33 min
Mar 2, 8:16 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHScott, Stoddard33 min
Mar 2, 8:22 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHChristian, Muhlenberg, Todd28 min
Mar 2, 8:34 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHBollinger, Scott, Stoddard, Wayne6 hr
Mar 2, 8:45 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHScott30 min
Mar 2, 8:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHButler, Ripley49 min
Mar 2, 9:04 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHAlexander, Pulaski41 min
Mar 2, 9:13 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHButler, Ripley47 min
Mar 2, 9:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHMassac, Pope43 min
Mar 2, 9:39 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDunklin38 min
Mar 2, 10:00 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHHardin, Johnson, Pope, Union6 hr
Mar 2, 10:00 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGDunklin18 min
Mar 2, 10:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCarroll, Gibson, Henry, Weakley44 min
Mar 2, 10:10 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHNew Madrid, Stoddard35 min
Mar 2, 10:20 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHCrittenden, Hopkins, McLean, Union, Webster6 hr
Mar 2, 10:30 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHFulton45 min
Mar 2, 10:37 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHBollinger6 hr
Mar 2, 10:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Carroll, Henry45 min
Mar 2, 11:02 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Henry25 min
Mar 2, 11:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHMississippi, New Madrid35 min
Mar 2, 11:11 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHCaldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Lyon, Muhlenberg, Todd and 1 more6 hr
Mar 2, 11:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Greene49 min
Mar 3, 12:13 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCalloway, Graves, Marshall32 min
Mar 3, 12:25 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay, Craighead, Greene20 min
Mar 3, 12:33 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCalloway, Marshall, Trigg27 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2020-03-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 334 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2020-03-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 185 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
334 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
668 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

277 
WWUS20 KWNS 022319
SEL5  
SPC WW 022319
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-030700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southwestern Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeastern Missouri
  Northwestern Tennessee

* Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 520 PM
  until 100 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should develop and increase in coverage and
intensity through the evening over the watch area, with commensurate
increase in mainly large-hail potential in a favorable supercell
environment.  Tornadoes are possible, however, along with isolated
severe gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
either side of a line from 45 miles south of Harrison AR to
Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 2, 3:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence and 5 more2 hr
Mar 1, 10:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Dent, Douglas and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2020Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2020Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2020Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.