Tornado Warning 17, NWS Paducah, KY

730 
WWUS53 KPAH 030326
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
926 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC181-030336-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200303T0400Z/
Ripley MO-
926 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL RIPLEY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3652 9049 3668 9049 3673 9016 3671 9015
      3670 9015 3669 9014 3668 9015 3666 9014
      3666 9015 3664 9014 3660 9018 3655 9018
      3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 279DEG 30KT 3657 9041 

$$

MOC023-030400-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200303T0400Z/
Butler MO-
926 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY...
    
At 926 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Neelyville, or 12 miles northwest of Chalk Bluff
Natural Area, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Qulin around 940 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3652 9049 3668 9049 3673 9016 3671 9015
      3670 9015 3669 9014 3668 9015 3666 9014
      3666 9015 3664 9014 3660 9018 3655 9018
      3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 279DEG 30KT 3657 9041 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

DWS

902 
WWUS53 KPAH 030351
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
951 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC023-030401-
/O.EXP.KPAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200303T0400Z/
Butler MO-
951 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1000 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3652 9049 3668 9049 3673 9016 3671 9015
      3670 9015 3669 9014 3668 9015 3666 9014
      3666 9015 3664 9014 3660 9018 3655 9018
      3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 277DEG 21KT 3655 9025 

$$

DWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tornado Watch 35 has been issued for much of the region basically
near and south of the front. The presence of the front, along with
a surface low that may move along it this evening, is the primary
reason for a tornado watch rather than a severe thunderstorm
watch. The potential for backed low-level winds with these
features could enhance the low-level shear allowing for greater
potential for tornadoes. Large hail will continue to be the
primary concern, along with damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Main forecast issues come with severe weather potential very late
this afternoon or early this evening through the early morning
hours Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast up a stationary
boundary located very close to the OH River. Storm initiation
should be over portions of southeast MO between 4 PM and 7 PM as a
mid level impulse shoots east toward northeast AR/southwest MO
and provides added lift near the surface low over northeast AR,
and low level jet 25-35 kts kicks in.

Mid- level lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 degrees and MLCAPES from
1000-1500 J/KG suggest strong updrafts capable of producing large
hail. Long, straight-lined hodographs and effective shear up close
to 40 kts or so would be supportive of multi-cell storms with
right and left splitting supercells. Therefore, will also be a
threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Last
but not least would be the risk of localized flooding, esp in
areas where storms may repeat, or train.

The surface low should race northeast along the OH River and out
of the forecast area after midnight, and force the trailing cold
front through our eastern counties by around 2 or 3 AM.
Thereafter, high pressure will build into the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS River Valley, bringing clearing skies Tuesday/Tuesday
night and mild early March temps in the lower/mid 60s at most
locations. Wed should also be a rather nice day with afternoon
temps in the 60s, though there could be some increase in cloud
cover over our southern areas in response to the next weather
maker well off to our southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

After a chance of some light rain Wed night into Thursday, a few
days of dry weather are expected. Rain chances will then return for
early next week. Overnight lows will remain quite chilly, but
daytime highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

As far as the rain chances for Wed night into Thursday, this precip
will be associated with a southern stream 500 mb shortwave that will
eject from the southern Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley.
This is the same shortwave that last week's models predicted would
bring very heavy rain on Tuesday and Tues night. A lot has changed
since then. Besides the slower timing, the track is much further
south. Any rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch
Thursday. Overnight lows will be around 40, with daytime highs 55 to
60.

Thursday night into Friday, the southern stream shortwave will phase
with a northern stream 500 mb shortwave over the eastern seaboard.
This will result in a strongly confluent northwesterly flow of dry
and colder air aloft. Skies will become sunny Friday, but gusty
northwest winds will limit highs to the mid 40s in sw Indiana and
around 50 elsewhere.

This weekend will be dry with a warming trend as a 500 mb ridge
moves east across the Mississippi Valley. Highs will be in the 50s
Saturday and around 60 on Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase
Sunday, along with southerly winds.

The ensemble means are in agreement on a 500 mb southwest flow
pattern early next week. A moist southern stream shortwave will
likely bring some rain Monday. This looks like a low-amplitude
progressive pattern, so preliminary indications point away from a
heavy rainfall event.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening along and south
of the frontal boundary which runs from near KCGI to near KEVV at
this time. At this time it appears that the storms will be
discrete which could mean no impact at any one location. Ceilings
will drop to MVFR levels as the front starts to move east later
tonight. The MVFR ceilings will likely exit the area shortly after
sunrise, and then gusty northwest winds will be the main concern
during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
642 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near a cold front
and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight
hours. Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch is in effect for all of
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana, as well as portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois until 1 AM. Lightning and
locally heavy rainfall are also concerns with any thunderstorms
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared to activate as the storms approach
tonight.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
753 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             4 S ZALMA               37.09N 90.08W
03/02/2020  E0.75 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
759 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             3 NNW CROFTON           37.09N 87.50W
03/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             1 S CROFTON             37.03N 87.48W
03/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
813 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TORNADO          1 S CROFTON             37.03N 87.48W
03/02/2020                   CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO WITNESSED BY METEOROLOGIST JUST SOUTH OF CROFTON.
            CARPORT DESTROYED. POSSIBLE ROOF AND SIGN DAMAGE.

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
832 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE PUXICO            36.98N 90.15W
03/02/2020                   STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEBRIS ON ROADS AND TREES DOWN, MAINLY P HIGHWAY IN THE
            ARAB AREA.

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
836 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S ZALMA               37.10N 90.08W
03/02/2020                   BOLLINGER          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            P HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING IN ARAB AREA

&&

MY